Carbon fiber has excellent performance and wide application: carbon fiber has excellent performance in density, modulus and strength, and is widely used in aerospace, civil and industrial fields. The whole carbon fiber industry chain includes raw material extraction, precursor manufacturing, carbon fiber manufacturing, carbon fiber composite, etc. among them, the product performance of small tow is excellent, but the price is generally high, which is mainly used in aerospace, high-end sports and other scenes; Large tow is generally used in basic industries, including wind power, construction, rail transit, energy and so on. According to the data of the global carbon fiber composite market report, the global demand for carbon fiber in the past 20 years was 107000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3%, mainly due to the demand impact of the epidemic on some industries. Among them, wind power is the largest downstream application field, with a 20-year demand of 30600 tons, accounting for 28.6%.
In 2020, China's total demand for carbon fiber was 49000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 29%, and wind power accounted for 41%.
Medium and long-term demand is supported, and double barriers shape the industrial pattern: carbon fiber in photovoltaic field is used as thermal field materials, which will benefit from photovoltaic production expansion + penetration improvement in the short term; From the medium-term perspective, the economy of using pultrusion process to make carbon fiber beam caps in the field of wind power is expected to initially show, gradually infiltrating from sea wind to land wind, driving the demand of 10000 tons; In the long run, the hydrogen energy industry chain has great potential, and the short-term bottleneck lies in the high cost. The carbon fiber production process has the characteristics of high investment and high energy consumption, resulting in significant scale effect. The cost of 1000 ton production line can be reduced by more than 20% compared with 100 ton production line. At the same time, the high process barriers make the global supply concentrated in the hands of 20 manufacturers.
The downstream expansion is radical, and the equipment has both certainty and explosive power: considering that the inflection point of downstream demand is expected to come, Chinese enterprises accelerate the expansion of production and drive the demand for equipment. We have made statistics on the current announced production expansion plans of major Chinese enterprises. The cumulative carbon fiber capacity planning of Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) , Xinjiang Longju, Baojing and other Chinese enterprises in 2025 is 269000 tons. Considering the current existing capacity, the cumulative new production capacity of China's major carbon fiber enterprises during the 14th five year plan period is about 233500 tons Zhejiang Jinggong Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002006) as the leader of China's carbon fiber equipment, the company has also frequently announced the winning of orders recently. Since September 30, 2021, the company has accumulated 1.68 billion yuan of orders for carbon fiber and 10 production lines. The customers are Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) , Jilin Guoxing and Xinjiang Longju respectively. We estimate that the equipment investment corresponding to the new capacity in 21-25 years is about 15.2 billion yuan. Considering the attribute of equipment front, the demand for carbon fiber equipment is expected to be released in a centralized manner.
Investment suggestion: the excellent properties of carbon fiber such as light weight, high strength and high elastic modulus have promoted its rapid penetration in aerospace, wind power, pressure vessel and other fields. Considering the high prospect of the new energy industry, the carbon fiber industry is expected to usher in the inflection point of demand, and Chinese enterprises will accelerate the expansion of production. We suggest to focus on the carbon fiber equipment leader Zhejiang Jinggong Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002006) , and there are abundant orders on hand at present; At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to other enterprises upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, including Jilin Carbon Valley and Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) .
Risk tip: the risk of demand fluctuation of carbon fiber downstream products in China, the risk of new product development, the risk of raw material price fluctuation and the risk of intensified industry competition.
