Matters:
On February 25, China Securities Association released the business data of 2021.
Comments:
Profitability and capital utilization efficiency were significantly improved. (1) Profitability: the industry’s revenue was 502.41 billion yuan (year-on-year + 12.0%), and the net profit was 191.12 billion yuan (year-on-year + 21.3%). The profit margin was 38.0% (up 2.9pct year-on-year), roe7.5% 4% (a year-on-year increase of 0.6pct), and the improvement of profitability may mainly benefit from the narrowing of impairment provision and the improvement of capital utilization efficiency. (2) Capital utilization efficiency: capital leverage ratio 20.9% (down 2.7pct year-on-year, leverage ratio increased 0.55 times), risk coverage 249.9% (down 2.5pct year-on-year), liquidity coverage 234.0% (down 1.9pct year-on-year), net capital stability 149.6% (down 4.0pct year-on-year). The core regulatory indicators are better than the industry early warning standards. Under the premise of sound risk control, the efficiency of capital utilization has been significantly improved.
The wealth management sector has developed rapidly and the customer base has expanded. (1) The business income from selling financial products on a commission basis was 20.69 billion yuan (year-on-year + 53.9%), accounting for 4.1% (year-on-year increase of 0.9pct), the business income from securities trading on an agency basis was 133.83 billion yuan (year-on-year + 15.2%), and the commission rate was 2.6%% (year-on-year decrease of 0.2 ten thousand points), mainly due to the high trading volume of quantitative funds with low commission rate; The balance of customer transaction settlement funds (including credit transaction funds) was 1.9 trillion yuan (year-on-year + 14.7%), and the customer base expanded. (2) The revenue of asset management business was 31.79 billion yuan (year-on-year + 6.1%). 21 years was the last year of the transformation of asset management new regulations, and the business transformation had an impact on the growth of industry revenue. The scale of collective asset management represented by active management reached 3.3 trillion yuan (year-on-year + 112.5%), and the end of the transformation of asset management business brought 22-year high growth expectations.
The scale of industry financing continued to expand. The income from investment banking business was 69.98 billion yuan (year-on-year + 4.1%), accounting for 13.9% (year-on-year decrease of 1.0pct). The growth rate of IPO scale was 13.9%, the growth rate of refinancing scale was 8.1%, and the growth rate of debt commitment scale was 12.5%. The growth rate of scale is higher than that of income, and the average rate is slightly lower. First, the industry competition is intensified, and second, China Mobile, China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) and other large projects reduce the overall rate.
The proportion of other and heavy capital business income decreased slightly. The income from other and heavy capital businesses was 246.12 billion yuan (year-on-year + 11.0%), accounting for 49.0% (year-on-year decrease of 0.5pct). Leverage rises, and the scale of heavy assets may increase significantly. However, the overall bearing of the 21-year market scenario is less than that of 20 years. The thunder stepping on bonds and the fluctuation of equity are relatively obvious, which may drag down the performance of the whole year. The derivatives business has increased rapidly, the head securities companies have promoted de directional investment, and the income of self operated business may be higher than the industry average.
Investment suggestion: since the beginning of 22 years, the fund market has been cold, and the wealth management sector has obviously declined. In terms of the performance of the whole year of 21 years, wealth management is still the largest market increment, and we are optimistic about the long-term development opportunities of wealth management business.
The linkage of derivatives business and investment + investment banking is an important starting point for the transformation of heavy capital business. Among traditional securities companies, it is recommended to pay attention to the head securities companies with business advantages. We continue to recommend China stock market news with significant core competitiveness and continuous layout of wealth management, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) , focusing on Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) .
Risk warning: the epidemic situation and duration of covid-19 pneumonia exceeded expectations, the downward pressure on the economy increased, the pace of innovation and reform was lower than expected, and the interest rate fluctuated greatly.
