Roving high boom continues, optimistic about sustainability. The price of glass fiber roving was stable this week, and the demand showed a starting trend; Inventory continues to be at the bottom of history.
Pay attention to the demand increment brought by the increase of export, wind power and new energy vehicle penetration. It is expected to be elastic in 22 years and grow in the long term. There is no change in supply planning this week, and there is no change in production line status this week. In the past 22 years, the new supply was relatively limited. At the same time, we should pay attention to the continuous guidance of the association’s orderly expansion of new production capacity. We are optimistic about the continuity of the high boom and the weakening of cyclical fluctuations in the glass fiber industry, the limited supply increment, the demand focus, and the improvement of overseas transportation and repair rhythm and wind power demand; At the same time, pay close attention to: 1) the impact of changes in medium and long-term capacity planning of enterprises under the state of high profitability on market expectations; 2) the disturbance caused by the tightening of energy consumption indicators on the landing of new capacity.
The price of electronic yarn / electronic cloth stabilized after adjustment. This week, the prices of electronic yarn and electronic cloth are stable on a weekly basis. We believe that the continuous reduction of prices in the early stage may be due to: 1) the high profit margin of suppliers in the early stage, and 2) the impact of the change stage of procurement rhythm. We are optimistic about the strength of demand support, and the probability of further decline in the future may be small China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) electronic yarn and electronic thick cloth production capacity continued to expand, and the share increased steadily Grace Fabric Technology Co.Ltd(603256) high end electronic cloth technology has advantages (the first echelon in the world), gradually realize self supply of high-end electronic yarn, and pay attention to the production rhythm and operation effect of Huangshi gauze project.
The industry cycle attribute may be gradually weakened, with poor expectations, focusing on China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) etc. The valuation of the main listed companies in the glass fiber sector is in the historical bottom range (the PE of the traditional glass fiber enterprises listed for 22 years is about 12x), and the medium and long-term configuration cost performance is good. The subsequent industry cycle attribute is judged as the core divergence of the market, the planning of new supply is limited, the difficulty of obtaining energy consumption indicators is improved, and the demand is growing. The 21-year performance forecast of major enterprises proves the continuation momentum of the high boom of the industry, and we judge it to be sustainable. We suggest that we pay attention to the opportunity of valuation reshaping under the weakening of industry cycle, continue to recommend China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , which has a stable global leading position, firmly promotes cost reduction / scale expansion / high-end product structure and has medium and long-term growth, and Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , which has strong glass fiber business strength, improved diaphragm efficiency / gradually enhanced voice and has medium and long-term growth of leaves, It is also suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) (jointly covered with the chemical team), Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) , Grace Fabric Technology Co.Ltd(603256) (jointly covered with the electronic team).
Risk tip: the new production capacity of glass fiber exceeds the expectation, the new production capacity planning exceeds the expectation, and the downstream demand is lower than the expectation (wind power, automobile, electronics, etc.).
