Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) (300751)
Won the bid for rec400mw heterojunction battery equipment, set the first record of domestic equipment export and recognized by the international market
1) According to solarzoom, the company has received an order from rec Singapore for 400MW heterojunction battery equipment, including core equipment such as PECVD, PVD and screen printing. It adopts 210 half chip technology and has a design capacity of about 11200 half chips / h, which is used for rec Singapore’s 400MW heterojunction battery production line. Rec is the largest battery module manufacturing company in Europe, with the world’s first hjt mass production project of more than 500MW.
2) The cooperation between the company and rec originated in 2019. At that time, REC built 600MW heterojunction battery capacity in Singapore. The equipment selection includes PECVD, PVD of Mayer Borg and screen printing of Maiwei (the price of single GW is as high as 800-1 billion, and the current price of Maiwei heterojunction equipment is expected to be about 400 million / GW). Maiwei was selected as the 400MW heterojunction core equipment PECVD and PVD this time, which represents that Maiwei heterojunction equipment products have been recognized in the international market and is the result of rec’s long-term investigation and verification of Maiwei.
3) Following the 400MW order, REC will open 6Gw heterojunction bidding, including 4gw in India and 1.8gw in Singapore, which is planned to be put into operation by the end of 2022. It is planned to reach 15gwhjt battery capacity in 2023, including 10GW in India and 5GW in Singapore. The only criterion for judging the suitability of components overseas is lcoe, especially in areas with high temperature or complex terrain, such as North America, the Middle East, Japan and India, which prefer hjt. Especially in places with high added value such as the United States, owners will have higher demand for hjt components with higher power generation efficiency (hjt battery double-sided rate reaches 90%) and lower BOM cost.
4) The company’s hjt equipment orders: as of September 2021, the company’s hjt equipment orders in hand reached 1.8 billion (according to the company’s announcement), and the corresponding orders are expected to exceed 4gw. The company has cooperated smoothly with Anhui Huasheng, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Atlas, REC and other customers.
Heterojunction equipment: the compound growth rate of the industry will exceed 80% in the next five years; The company has “first mover advantage” + “whole line supply capacity”
1) Market space of hjt equipment industry: it is expected that the market space of hjt equipment will exceed 40 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR will be 80% from 2020 to 2025. If the net interest rate remains 20% (8 billion net profit), 25 times PE will be given, and it is estimated that the reasonable total market value of hjt equipment industry is 200 billion yuan! We judge that the leading market share of the industry is expected to exceed 50%, and the market value of hjt equipment industry is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan in the future.
2) The company is a leader in heterojunction (hjt) equipment, with “first mover advantage” + “whole line supply capacity”. It has realized the supply capacity of hjt whole line equipment (from 25% of perc equipment to 95% of hjt equipment). The company has launched the third generation of 600MW capacity heterojunction equipment. Downstream, it has cooperated smoothly with Tongwei, Anhui Huasheng, Atlas, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) , Aikang, REC and other customers, and has won GW orders.
3) 2.8 billion fixed increase code heterojunction (hjt) equipment: the company announced that it plans to issue 2.8 billion fixed increase code to build a new Suzhou hjt battery equipment manufacturing base and make-up current. The construction cycle is 3 years. After reaching the production capacity, it can achieve an annual output of 40 sets of PECVD, PVD and automation equipment, an annual sales revenue of 6 billion and a net profit of 890 million. When the downstream hjt expansion is coming, the company will strengthen the capacity supply capacity of the company.
Profit forecast: optimistic about the company’s strategic position in the future development of the photovoltaic industry and its high growth in the next five years. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 680.8/1.3 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 52% / 46% / 48%, corresponding to 121 / 83 / 56 times of PE. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the propulsion speed of heterojunction battery does not meet the expectation; Photovoltaic demand is lower than expected; The downstream expansion is less than expected
