The A-share market was active this week, and the transaction amount of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets stood at the trillion mark for three consecutive trading days. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine had an impact on the global stock market, and the major indexes rose and fell. The upcoming annual national “two sessions” will undoubtedly become the focus of the capital market.
Under the geopolitical turmoil, what are the main market lines and factors that need to be paid attention to in March? It is generally believed in the industry that the A-share market in March is expected to usher in a restorative spring market.
In the early period, there is still a good opportunity for the growth of the overseas monetary sector, which is expected to be eased, and the market performance is expected to begin to rebound in the early period and cost-effective period under the background of structural adjustment in the market. In China, the two sessions of the National People’s Congress are about to be held, and the implementation of policies is expected to speed up; Overseas, the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine suppresses risk appetite in the short term, and the impact on China lies more in the medium and long-term strategic level than the economic level. From the perspective of equity risk premium and valuation quantile, the market gradually shows its cost performance after adjustment, and the valuation repair market will be carried out slowly.
At the same time, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) CE believes that historical data show that regional conflicts have a short impact on the stock market. Referring to 2014, the impact of Russia Ukraine conflict on the stock market may gradually disappear. The market fell at the beginning of the year due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the disturbance of the expectation of interest rate increase in the United States. The disturbance dissipated, and the spring market with steady growth was just at that time. The market style is moving from value led to growth led, such as photovoltaic wind power in low-carbon economy and cloud computing data center in digital economy.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that in the performance of A-share market, under the main line of steady growth in February, banking, insurance, infrastructure, coal and other sectors performed better, and the interpretation of internal logic is still what we have always emphasized before: low valuation, high dividend and stable income. We believe that this trend is expected to continue in March, and the investment opportunity of undervalued blue chip may still be the most robust main line in the market.
market review this week p align = “center” 1, stock market
a-share Market:
This week (February 21-25, the same below) A shares showed a shock pattern as a whole, and the index rose and fell. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.13% to 345141 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.35% to 1341291 points, while the gem index rose 1.03% to 2855.8 points.
In terms of funds, the accumulated net sales of funds going north this week were 6.413 billion yuan, and the net purchases during the month were 1.932 billion yuan. Judging from the trend of funds going north this week, the change of geographical situation affects the market risk appetite, and also directly affects the trend of funds going north.
From the perspective of shenwanyi industry, 12 industries rose this week, among which the industry indexes such as power equipment (4.25%), national defense and military industry (3.05%), electronics (2.45%) and non-ferrous metals (2.13%) rose by more than 2%. In addition, the indexes of building decoration, building materials and other industries fell by more than 6% this week.
table: performance of shenwanyi industry this week (February 21-25) p align = “center” prepared by: Zhang Ying
At the same time, statistics show that 59 stocks will be lifted next week (February 28 – March 4). According to the latest closing price, the total market value of the lifted shares is 39.902 billion yuan. In terms of the scale of lifting the ban, Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) has the largest amount of lifting the ban, with a market value of 9.973 billion yuan. In terms of the number of shares lifted, the number of individual shares such as Bank Of Xi’An Co.Ltd(600928) , Shanghai Baosteel Packaging Co.Ltd(601968) , Hangzhou Mdk Opto Electronic Corporation Limited(688079) and Hangzhou Mdk Opto Electronic Corporation Limited(688079) exceeded 100 million.
Eight new shares will be issued next week, with a cumulative number of about 247 million shares, and it is expected to raise 8.355 billion yuan. Among them, there are 3 scientific innovation boards, 1 main board of Shanghai Stock Exchange, 3 gem and 1 Beijing stock exchange. On February 28, lux shares, Salem biology and Zhejiang HENGWEI were issued; Wankong Zhizao was issued on March 1; Aoki shares were issued on March 2; Silinger was issued on March 3; On March 4, Gaoling information and softcom power were released.
In addition, on Monday (February 28), three new shares of Hongxi technology, Han’s CNC and Hongying intelligence will be listed.
form: subscription of 8 new shares next week (February 28 – March 4) p align = “center” prepared by: Zhang Ying
Hong Kong Stock Market:
This week, the Hong Kong stock market fell in shock. On Friday, Hong Kong stocks opened higher and went lower. The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.59% to 2276718 points, down 6.41% this week; Hang Seng technology index rose 0.84% to 511262 points, down 6.7% this week; The Hang Seng SOE index fell 0.49% to 799164, down 6.4% for the week.
overseas market:
On Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed up, with the Dow index rising 2.51% to 3405875 points, the S & P 500 index rising 2.24% to 438465 points and the NASDAQ index rising 1.64% to 1369462 points. This week, the Dow fell 0.06%, the S & P 500 index rose 0.82% and the NASDAQ rose 1.08%.
On Friday, European stocks rebounded sharply. Germany’s DAX index rose 3.67% to 1456723 points, France’s CAC40 index rose 3.55% to 675243 points, and Britain’s FTSE 100 index rose 3.91% to 748946 points. The Russian MOEX index closed at 247048, up 20.04%.
On Friday, the market panic eased, the major stock indexes in the Asia Pacific closed higher, and the South Korean composite index rose 1.06% to 267676 points; The Nikkei 225 index rose 1.95% to 264765 points; New Zealand nzx50 index rose 1.62% to 1192338; Australia’s S S & P 200 index rose 0.1% to 6997.8P align = “center” 2. Bond market
On Friday, the yield of US bonds generally rose. The yield of three-month US bonds rose 1.52 basis points to 0.325%, the yield of two-year US bonds rose 4.4 basis points to 1.580%, the yield of three-year US bonds rose 4.5 basis points to 1.768%, the yield of five-year US bonds rose 3 basis points to 1.873%, the yield of 10-year US bonds rose 0.7 basis points to 1.968%, and the yield of 30-year US bonds was flat to 2.277%P align = “center” 3, foreign exchange
On Friday, the US dollar index fell 0.56% to 96.54, and non US currencies generally rose. The euro rose 0.75% to 1.1273 against the US dollar, the pound rose 0.22% to 1.3413 against the US dollar, the Australian dollar rose 1.09% to 0.7230 against the US dollar, the US dollar fell 0.01% to 115.52 against the Japanese yen, the US dollar fell 0.05% to 0.9256 against the Swiss franc, and the offshore people’s currency rose 105 basis points to 6.3109 against the US dollar.
The central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.3346 on Friday, down 66 basis points, and a total of 3 basis points this week. The onshore RMB closed at 6.3142 against the US dollar at 16:30, up 92 basis points from the previous trading day and 123 basis points this weekP align = “center” 4. Bulk commodities
On Friday, international oil prices fell across the board, and the April contract of us oil fell 0.94% to US $91.94/barrel. The oil distribution contract in May fell 0.91% to US $94.55/barrel. This week, the US oil contract rose 1.92% in April and the oil distribution contract rose 1.08% in May.
On Friday, Comex gold futures fell 1.88% to US $1890.1/oz, and Comex silver futures fell 1.53% to US $24.31/oz. This week, Comex gold futures fell 0.51% and Comex silver futures rose 1.33%.
London base metals closed mostly lower on Friday, with LME copper falling 0.04% to US $9860 / ton, LME zinc falling 0.44% to US $3625 / ton, LME nickel falling 2.03% to US $24215 / ton, LME aluminum falling 0.43% to US $3380 / ton, LME tin falling 1.57% to US $44480 / ton, and LME lead rising 1.37% to US $2375.5/ton. This week, LME copper fell 0.96%, LME zinc rose 1.38%, LME nickel rose 0.29%, LME aluminum rose 3.6%, LME tin rose 0.77% and LME lead rose 1.15%.
