The annual national "two sessions" will begin in early March, which has become the focus of the capital market in the near future.
How will the market of this year's "two sessions" be interpreted? Will there be more than expected policies in the "two sessions"? Which areas have become the new outlets of a shares? How to view the overall economic development situation this year? What areas of investment opportunities deserve attention?
In this regard, China fund daily interviewed eight investment and research leaders of public funds. They are:
Han Xianwang, chief economist of huitianfu Fund
Tang Xiaodong, CO general manager of Macro Strategy Department of China Southern Fund
Zhou Weiwen, chairman and investment director of China Europe Fund equity investment decision-making committee
Sha Wei, assistant general manager of Equity Investment Department III of Boshi fund, fund manager and social security portfolio investment manager
Great Wall Fund deputy general manager and investment director Yang Jianhua
Li Yongxing, deputy general manager and equity investment director of YONGYING Fund
HSBC Jinxin fund investment director and fund manager Lu Bin
Wu Guoqing, executive investment director and fund manager of Qianhai open source Fund
These investment researchers believe that there is a wave of "two sessions market" before the "two sessions" every year. It is expected that this year's two sessions will mainly focus on steady growth and high-quality development, pay more attention to the old and new infrastructure construction, and are not only optimistic about the themes of East and West computing, 5g, digital economy, but also optimistic about real estate, infrastructure and other sectors.
wonderful views:
Han Xianwang: since the beginning of this year, some sectors have adjusted greatly, which is influenced by both their own high valuation and industrial policy adjustment. In addition, affected by geopolitical and other factors, some funds in the market are also adjusting their asset allocation. The low valuation of traditional assets related to coal and oil prices has also attracted some hedge funds. It is expected that this year's market style is still more biased towards dividend and value market
Tang Xiaodong: at the two sessions this year, we will mainly focus on the GDP growth target, the scale of the fiscal budget and the expression of real estate. At present, the combination of macro environment is credit stabilization plus monetary easing. The core uncertainty lies in the credit easing, so the deficit ratio and the scale of special debt will become the key. During the two sessions, we will pay close attention to the expression of the credit easing policy and the subsequent implementation
Zhou Weiwen: the factors affecting the market in 2022 include macroeconomic trend and monetary policy, including Fed policy, market valuation, geopolitics and other factors. We are full of confidence in the medium - and long-term prospects of China's economy. From this perspective, the medium and long term are relatively certain, and the market valuation is an important factor affecting the market. In the medium term, macroeconomic trends and fed policies will have a certain impact on the stock market
Shawei: Historically, the A-share index mostly rose in the early stage of the two sessions, but as the two sessions approached, the increase began to narrow gradually or even decline, the rise of China Securities 500 and gem index was relatively higher, and the small and medium-sized market was more dominant. In the past, the market performance on the day of the two sessions was general. After the two sessions, the mood gradually warmed up, and the elasticity of small and medium-sized stocks and overvalued varieties was greater
Yang Jianhua: China still focuses on "stability". Under the premise of relatively large downward pressure on the economy, the strength and measures of stability will also be relatively large, and the liquidity will be better this year. Although the profit growth of listed companies will slow down compared with last year, the A-share market is still dominated by liquidity on the whole. If there is sufficient liquidity, There will be more market opportunities
Li Yongxing: in the first half of this year, the macro economy may still be under pressure, "steady growth" may become the main policy line of the whole year. The specific paths may include continuously increasing new infrastructure, restarting infrastructure real estate investment to a limited extent, stimulating consumption, etc. At present, the market has formed expectations for the evolution of policies in this direction to a certain extent. Whether relevant sectors can form a trend market in the future still needs the verification of fundamental data
Lu Bin: this year's two sessions are expected to focus on steady growth and high-quality development. The policies they pay more attention to include: first, the objectives and measures of expanding effective investment. Second, the corresponding policies to boost consumption. Third, China is in a period of economic transformation. We need to strengthen new driving forces and promote high-quality development. Fourth, support policies for small and medium-sized enterprises
Wu Guoqing: in the environment of large credit volume, the residual liquidity in the market is relatively abundant, and the style of small and medium-sized stocks is expected to continue. First, the proportion of "steady growth" in macro policies has increased significantly since this year; Second, under the catalysis of energy revolution, intelligence and self-control, emerging industries including new energy, semiconductor and 5g are still in the boom diffusion cycle. Small and medium-sized stocks in related fields are still expected to be the main theme of 2022
this year's "two sessions" focused on steady growth and high-quality development
China Fund News reporter: at present, when A-Shares enter the "two sessions", how do you view the policies of the two sessions this year and which policies you pay more attention to
Lu Bin: this year's two sessions are expected to focus on steady growth and high-quality development. The policies of more concern include: first, the objectives and measures of expanding effective investment. Second, the corresponding policies to boost consumption. Third, China is in a period of economic transformation. We need to strengthen new driving forces and promote high-quality development. Fourth, support policies for small and medium-sized enterprises.
Tang Xiaodong: this year's two sessions will mainly focus on the GDP growth target, budget scale and real estate. At present, the combination of macro environment is credit stabilization plus monetary easing. The core uncertainty lies in the credit easing, so the deficit ratio and the scale of special debt will become the key. According to the information of the local two sessions, the growth target may be biased towards 5.5%. The rebound in the infrastructure and real estate sectors since this year also reflects the high expectation of the market for credit relief, but the interest rate continues to be lower than 3.0%, indicating that the market is still worried about the implementation of economic boost, and there are still disputes about the investment in new and old infrastructure and the construction of guaranteed rental housing, Therefore, during the two sessions, we will pay close attention to the expression of the credit easing policy and the subsequent implementation.
Shawei: since the central economic work conference at the end of 2021, steady growth has become the focus of short-term economy, but the market remains hesitant about the strength of steady growth, resulting in the continuous weakening of the market since the beginning of the year. It is expected that the policies of the two sessions will play a great role in stabilizing market confidence.
Among them, I mainly focus on the following points: first, how to set the annual GDP growth target, which determines the strength and confidence of steady growth.
Second, how to boost consumption? Since the outbreak, offline consumption has recovered slowly. There was basically no targeted stimulus last year. The epidemic prevention and control may still be strict this year. Consumption stimulus may determine whether the consumption sector can recover this year.
Third, how to promote infrastructure investment? With the expected decline of real estate investment, infrastructure investment bears the heavy responsibility. How to implement the project and whether the new and old infrastructure will work together deserve special attention.
Li Yongxing: first, pay attention to the progress of policies related to "steady growth". The commonalities in the local two sessions are often the forerunner of the national two sessions. Although the specific efforts are different according to local conditions, most provincial administrative regions have listed "steady growth" as the key work in 2022, and it is expected that the national two sessions will continue this tone. After the implementation of the policy, the two sessions may further strengthen "steady growth" in the fields of money and credit, fiscal budget, infrastructure and real estate. Among them, the strength of real estate credit policy and the focus of new and old infrastructure are the focus of attention.
Second, pay attention to the relevant contents of regional development balance and common prosperity. In March 2021, the 14th five year plan emphasized the balance of regional development and promoted regional high-quality and integrated development; In August, the 10th meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission studied issues such as solidly promoting common prosperity and the third distribution; In November, the Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee again mentioned "promoting people's all-round development and making more obvious substantive progress in common prosperity for all people". Combined with the repeated references and statements on common prosperity at the high-level meeting, we expect that issues related to common prosperity such as affordable rental housing, education equity and consumption upgrading may also become the focus of discussion at the two sessions.
Third, pay attention to the initial implementation and deployment of the 14th five year plan. From the capital market experience during the two sessions from 1995 to now, in the year when the five-year plan outline is released, relevant fields will generally become the structural hot spot during the two sessions. In 2021, the central government and all provinces successively released the full text of the 14th five year plan. As the first year of the 14th five year plan, its deployed key projects and completed basic work may attract market attention.
Wu Guoqing: personally, I pay more attention to the balance between short-term stable growth and medium and long-term economic structure adjustment.
From the Politburo meeting in December to the local two sessions recently concluded, it is not difficult to see that the decision-making level as a whole has a full understanding of the economic pressure and severity of "demand contraction, attack impact and weakening expectation", correspondingly has a strong determination to stabilize growth and has taken practical actions. However, deleveraging and housing without speculation are the medium and long-term main lines of Chinese society. As a secondary market participant, we look forward to paying attention to what balance the government will make between the two.
"steady growth" policy brings more opportunities
China Fund News: for the high expectation this year, mainly the "steady growth" policy, do you think there are new policies in this area, and what investment opportunities will it bring in the future
Han Xianwang: from the perspective of the government, compared with import, export and consumption, it has strong independent and controllable ability in infrastructure investment. From the perspective of structure, the old infrastructure is highly related to the traditional economy, including real estate. Therefore, the new infrastructure is expected to become the starting point of the "stable growth" policy in the future, It can also bring greater increment to the macro economy, so 5g, digital economy and other fields related to economic transformation are paid more attention by the government.
In terms of consumption, at present, there are sporadic outbreaks of imported and local epidemics. All localities have introduced measures to control close contact, which has an obvious impact on consumption. The overall consumption growth this year is not optimistic. From the perspective of stimulating consumption growth, the state may also introduce a series of countermeasures. At present, it is judged that the controllable ability in this regard may be weaker than infrastructure investment.
Export is a major uncertain factor in the macro economy this year. Due to the continuous outbreak of overseas epidemics, China's exports have exceeded expectations in the past two years, which has played a great supporting role in China's overall economic growth. However, whether exports can maintain a strong growth rate in the future depends on the trend of overseas epidemic, and the predictability is not strong. Therefore, the market has been worried that "exports may be lower than expected and drag down the annual GDP growth" this year.
In addition, the steady growth measures for new energy vehicles, household appliances and energy conservation and emission reduction are expected to be introduced one after another in the future, but these measures may rank relatively lower in the series of supporting measures of the "combination fist" of steady growth.
Whether it is the new economy or the digital economy, the capital market has been performing around the "stable growth" policy for some time this year, and may continue to bring investment opportunities to the capital market in the future.
Yang Jianhua: from the perspective of policy, the government saw relatively great downward pressure on the economy at the end of last year, taking "stable growth" as the primary economic task. In addition, this year is a political year, and the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing in the second half of the year. Looking at the entire international community, this year is also a political year. Many countries are facing mid-term and presidential elections. However, investors have confused expectations and insufficient confidence in the strength of the "steady growth" measures and whether they can stabilize the economy. The expected reversal will take some time, and it also requires more vigorous introduction of macroeconomic policies. We have great confidence in the government's determination and ability to "stabilize growth" and believe that investors' expectations will be reversed.
Generally speaking, China still focuses on "stability". Under the premise of relatively large downward pressure on the economy, the strength and measures of stability will also be relatively large, and the liquidity will be better this year. Although the profit growth of listed companies will slow down compared with last year, the A-share market is still dominated by liquidity on the whole. If there is sufficient liquidity, there will be more market opportunities.
Tang Xiaodong: at present, production, investment and consumption have not achieved significant stabilization and recovery, and there is likely to be continuous support for the steady growth policy. The core options are expected to focus on the real estate policies related to accelerating fiscal expenditure, expanding investment in new and old infrastructure, promoting consumption and ensuring real estate construction. The policy of steady growth logically focuses on traditional value sectors such as infrastructure, real estate and big finance.
Shawei: in addition to the relaxation of infrastructure and real estate that the market has expected, the policy of consumption direction is also worth looking forward to. There are relatively few policies to stimulate consumption in 2021. Under the background of fiscal policy expansion this year, consumption related policies such as consumption vouchers and old for new may be introduced one after another. In the later stage, if the epidemic control is relaxed, the consumer sector will have better layout opportunities.
Li Yongxing: since the third quarter of 2021, under the background of the normalization of the epidemic, we have seen that the economic growth has slowed down, the superposition of real estate credit risks and the downward expectation of growth have exacerbated market concerns.
In this context, the Politburo meeting in July 2021 initially released the easing signal, and the central economic work conference at the end of 2021 defined the direction of this round of "steady growth". In the first half of this year, the macro economy may still be under pressure, "steady growth" may become the main policy line of the whole year, which is highly valued by the local two sessions. The probability of the national two sessions and subsequent policies will also continue to be deduced around expanding domestic demand. The specific paths may include continuously increasing new infrastructure, restarting infrastructure real estate investment to a limited extent, stimulating consumption, etc. At present, the market has formed expectations for the evolution of policies in this direction to a certain extent. Whether relevant sectors can form a trend market in the future still needs the verification of fundamental data.
Lu Bin: at the end of last year, the central economic work conference proposed "taking economic construction as the center", and this year's "steady growth" policy is expected to become the focus of the two sessions. Infrastructure investment and affordable housing construction may become an important foothold of "steady growth". Traditional infrastructure and new infrastructure will work together, and digital infrastructure and energy infrastructure will become highlights of infrastructure.
Wu Guoqing: my conclusion is affirmative. At present, governments at all levels and market participants have relatively consistent expectations on the necessity of stable growth, but there are still differences on the specific path. The core behind this lies in the above-mentioned decision-making level how to balance the two objectives of short-term stable growth and medium and long-term economic restructuring. The different ratio between the two determines the difference in industry style in the second quarter and even the whole year. In contrast, the market of real estate and old infrastructure is still expected to be poor, but it has a certain valuation and cost performance; The probability of new infrastructure is the focus of policy, but the market has responded in advance. From the current situation of the local two sessions, I think that the new infrastructure, especially the industrial Internet and digital village, may exceed expectations. In the later stage, I will continue to pay attention to the dynamic verification of the two sessions.
two sessions: industrial policy helps judge industrial trend
China Fund News reporter: at present, the two sessions of China's provinces have been held, and new and old infrastructure development points, industrial policies, state-owned enterprise reform and new energy have become key words. What do you think of the investment opportunities in these aspects
Han Xianwang: state owned enterprise reform is not a new topic. State owned enterprises play a mainstay role in the national economy. Therefore, state-owned enterprise reform is a stable and gradual process, which is difficult to achieve overnight in a short time.
In contrast, new energy is more likely to become a stable growth industry for local governments, and the capital market will pay more attention to new energy related investment opportunities. In this regard, we are relatively more optimistic about investment opportunities for high-quality companies in new energy vehicles and photovoltaic related industrial chains.
Zhou Weiwen: new and old infrastructure is beneficial to relevant industries. The new energy industry policy will continue to support in the future, driving the continuous growth of industry sales. Among them, the profit growth rate of subdivided industries will be differentiated. Some will maintain high growth in the coming year, while others will slow down in a year or two. Therefore, medium-term investment opportunities will also be differentiated. In the short term, there may be a rebound opportunity when it falls to a certain extent.
Lu Bin: under the background of steady growth, such as the construction of water conservancy, transportation and urban pipe network in the field of traditional infrastructure, the construction of new energy facilities such as wind power and photovoltaic in new infrastructure and the construction of digital economy infrastructure represented by "counting from the east to the west" are all worthy of attention. The reform of state-owned enterprises can stimulate the business vitality of state-owned enterprises, improve their business enthusiasm through employee stock ownership, introduce private capital and improve the competitiveness of the industry. These enterprises also breed many investment opportunities.
Tang Xiaodong: the industrial policies at the two sessions are helpful to judge the industrial trend, but they also need to make market judgment in combination with the internal differentiation and valuation of the sector. In 2022, new and old infrastructure is a more likely policy focus. In terms of information infrastructure, it hardware, assisted driving, industrial Internet and other application aspects of new infrastructure, it is expected that there will be phased opportunities in the relevant sectors of old infrastructure investment in the first half of the year. New energy will still be the focus of carbon neutral and long-term policy direction, which is optimistic in the medium and long term, but it is expected that the differentiation of subdivided industries will expand this year. Pay attention to wind power, photovoltaic operation and upstream raw materials, and the profits of batteries and new energy vehicles may be restricted to some extent.
Shawei: I think the core goal is to continue to move towards high-quality development. Although steady growth is imminent in 2022, the two sessions will still focus on the long term and strive to better take into account environmental protection, safety, equity and other issues while developing the economy. When it comes to investment opportunities, I think the medium-term perspective can focus on several aspects: manufacturing to a higher level, slow replacement of energy, more attention to safety, and consumption can still be. First, the upgrading of the manufacturing industry needs to achieve higher industrial added value and better participate in the global division of labor through "making up for weaknesses and forging long sectors", which is also the basis for realizing "China's international double cycle". Second, in the running in period of the alternation of old and new energy, we believe that on the one hand, we should continue to pay attention to the new energy field that China is developing, but at the same time, the insufficient expenditure in the traditional energy field will also support the recovery of the long-term inflation Center. The implementation of global double carbon may further suppress the expenditure and investment in the traditional energy field, which will increase the potential upward risk of traditional energy prices. Third, the communique of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee has proposed to "coordinate development and security, and put security development through all fields and the whole process of national development". The connotation and scope of security are richer, including national defense security, industrial chain security, energy and food security, and people's life security. For the capital market, national defense security Energy security and food security may be the most concerned direction at present. Fourth, under the catalysis of "common prosperity", we believe that mass consumer goods such as home care / dairy products / beer / soft drinks / mass beauty and personal care products deserve attention in the future.
Wu Guoqing: these aspects will also be the focus of the national two sessions. When it comes to investment, I pay more attention to comparing the poor expectation of the industry and the cost performance. New energy penetration and new infrastructure construction are the long-term main lines with certainty, but the market has interpreted this since last year, which may weaken the elasticity of relevant sectors. The market has different judgments on the old infrastructure and the reform of state-owned enterprises, but the two directions are more cost-effective. In the later stage, I will also pay close attention to the trend of the two sessions and adjust my investment focus.
Li Yongxing: historically, the sectors or industries involved in the policy expectations of the two sessions have generally performed well. At present, they are in the stage of continuous reinforcement of the "steady growth" policy, and the market is gradually warming up its attention to such policies, including traditional infrastructure chain and real estate chain.
In addition, the combination of new infrastructure construction and industrial policies may breed new investment directions and even market main lines throughout the year, including computers, communications and power grids. We have observed that the government work reports of 31 provincial-level administrative regions this year have made centralized arrangements for the two major industries of agriculture and communication, focusing on the construction tasks of 5g base stations, modern agricultural parks, intelligent factories, digital workshops and industrial Internet, while the overall objectives related to the installation of new energy are weaker than last year, Therefore, we believe that the probability of new infrastructure is the focus of infrastructure investment in the whole year.
"document 1" brings layout opportunities to the agricultural field
China fund No. 1 reporter: Recently, the No. 1 central document, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, issued a proposal to do a good job of promoting the key work of Rural Revitalization in 2022.
In your opinion, what investment opportunities will be brought to the No. 1 central document guiding the work of agriculture, rural areas and farmers?
Han Xianwang: China is a large agricultural country with a very high proportion of rural population. Rural Revitalization and agricultural economic development play a very important role in the overall development and stability of China's economy, and the government has always attached great importance to it.
China's regional economic development is uneven, and the gap between inland and northern provinces and coastal areas is widening. For economically rich provinces such as Guangdong and Zhejiang, there are not too many problems in rural construction. The rural economic development in remote western areas still depends on means such as government transfer payment. Under the background of emphasizing common prosperity, the three rural issues and boosting rural economic development are still a long-term important work.
However, for the capital market, the No. 1 central document at the beginning of each year is an old topic. In fact, the correlation between investment opportunities and capital investment in this regard is not high.
Lu Bin: has focused on agriculture, rural areas and farmers every year in the No. 1 central document in recent years. This year's focus on Rural Revitalization will bring about a boost in the consumption of rural and related industries. In addition, the document emphasizes the need to vigorously promote the tackling of key agricultural core technologies such as seed sources, and fully implement the action plan for the revitalization of the seed industry. If supporting policies are implemented in the future, it may be beneficial to the breeding sector of the seed industry.
Tang Xiaodong: No. 1 central document has the effect of short-term speculation on investment, but more importantly, it is the guidance of the medium and long term policy dividend target.
This document reflects the high attention paid to the seed industry, and has refined the policy requirements for promoting the research and development of seed industry technology, including the research and development of key agricultural core technologies such as seed sources, requiring all provinces to implement the action plan for the revitalization of seed industry according to local conditions, and emphasizing the research and development of major biological breeding projects such as genetically modified organisms. At the same time, in terms of non seed industry, the document pays attention to the contradiction between supply and demand of staple grain, corn and pigs, and it is expected that grain prices can maintain a high boom.
Shawei: in fact, the "opinions" is the second officially released document on Rural Revitalization in 2022. The former is the "opinions of the State Council on supporting Guizhou to blaze a new path in the western development in the new era", which shows the importance of Rural Revitalization Strategy in the current development stage.
In terms of investment opportunities, we think it can be summarized into three directions: first, industrial development. Among them, the opportunities of agricultural modernization related to the primary industry (green agriculture, agricultural machinery and equipment, etc.) deserve attention, and the cold chain logistics, county consumption and rural tourism related to the secondary and tertiary industry also have considerable development space.
Second, it is ecologically livable. There are both living infrastructure construction (sewage treatment, water supply guarantee) and production construction (water conservancy, roads, etc.).
Third, digital empowerment. The opinion points out that in the countryside, grid management and digital empowerment should be implemented, and the Internet plus government service should be extended to the countryside, and the application scenarios of big data in agriculture and rural areas should be expanded, and the digital rural trial should be carried out continuously. The digital economy will become an important starting point for strengthening the construction of rural information infrastructure.
Wu Guoqing: No. 1 central document issued by , the most important part of food security is still issued. The document puts forward "firmly keeping the two bottom line of ensuring national food security and not returning to poverty in scale", and stressing that we should vigorously promote the key technology research of agriculture and other key industries, and "start" a major project of agricultural biological breeding. Reflecting the state's emphasis on the revitalization of the seed industry, seed industry, biological breeding, agricultural breeding, animal protection and other sectors will directly benefit from the implementation of follow-up policies.
In addition, this document focuses on the field of Rural Revitalization and makes many policy arrangements around the improvement of rural living environment, rural infrastructure construction, digital village construction, agricultural machinery and equipment modernization and other fields, such as infrastructure (rural water conservancy, road and bridge construction), environmental protection (rural sewage treatment), data center (Rural big data construction) Agricultural machinery is expected to benefit directly.
Li Yongxing: No. 1 central document , "the opinions on comprehensively promoting the key work of Rural Revitalization", made important arrangements in 8 directions, including grasping grain production and important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply, strengthening modern agriculture foundation support, keeping the bottom line of scale poverty reduction, focusing on industry promoting rural development, promoting rural construction and improving rural governance. There are many bright spots in food security, rural infrastructure, agricultural mechanization and so on: first, in terms of food security, the document raised "guarding and ensuring national food security" to the height of "bottom line", and mentioned "food" many times in the full text, which is self-evident;
Second, in terms of rural infrastructure, this document mainly involves the improvement of rural living environment, rural infrastructure construction, digital village construction and other contents, which is basically consistent with the stable growth policy of 22 years of new and old infrastructure;
Third, in terms of agricultural mechanization, the document continues the implementation of the subsidy policy for the purchase of agricultural machinery, and emphasizes the improvement of agricultural machinery and equipment technology. Corresponding to specific industries, it is expected that seed industry, water conservancy road and bridge construction, data center and agricultural machinery will benefit.
real estate or certain opportunities
China Fund News reporter: Recently, the real estate policy in some areas has been loosened. What do you think of this situation? How much impact
Han Xianwang: "housing without speculation" has been set as the overall national policy, just because real estate accounts for a relatively high proportion in the national economy and involves many industrial chains in the upstream and downstream, some fine adjustments may be made according to the differences in economic growth of various regions, and the possibility of substantial adjustment is very small.
At present, the sales price of new houses in first tier cities is under control, which also means that as a listed company, the profit space of real estate enterprises has been compressed. In the future, it will test the fine management and cost control ability of developers. In the capital market, the investment attribute of the real estate sector is also more and more biased towards the manufacturing industry, which may be difficult to have room for substantial growth.
Yang Jianhua: we are paying close attention to the real estate sector. There may be some opportunities, but it depends on the follow-up policy trend. From the long-term logic, at the end of 2020, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission designated "three red lines" for real estate companies. Many private real estate companies have difficulties in capital chain, including some companies at the head, which have a great impact on the real estate industry chain. Many companies of downstream suppliers will raise bad debts, which also leads to a sharp decline in new real estate construction and land transfer. In the process of stabilizing the economy, the weight of real estate is relatively large. We expect that real estate will be relaxed this year, but what is the effect of relaxation? In which direction will the pilot of real estate tax go? We are also closely following.
Real estate belongs to the undervalued sector, which has been fully adjusted in the past few years. Once the policy is relaxed and the capital chain is relatively safe, the real estate companies represented by state-owned or state-controlled companies will further expand their market share on the one hand, on the other hand, their valuation is very cheap and have a certain valuation repair opportunity.
Lu Bin: real estate policy control policy was relatively strict in the early stage. At present, some areas adjust real estate policies according to local conditions, which is conducive to meeting the normal purchase demand of residents. In the future, the tone of "housing without copying" will not change, but the policy is expected to pick up marginally, and the real estate fundamentals are expected to hit the bottom and pick up.
Tang Xiaodong: the growth rate of real estate sales area has turned negative in the fourth quarter of 2021. Subsequent interest rate cuts and marginal loosening of real estate are natural policy paths for steady growth. The real estate downturn is the core drag of this round of economic downturn. At present, real estate sales have not stabilized. Further real estate easing is an important means to support the bottom economy, which is not contradictory to not using real estate as a stimulus. Under the general tone of no speculation in real estate, I have confidence in the stabilization of real estate. However, considering that the total area of real estate sales has been at a high level of more than 1.7 billion square meters, I don't think the real estate will be greatly boosted.
Shawei: I think it is the correction after the previous policies are too strict to a certain extent. Although the core proposition of the "three red lines" will not change in the short term, it is not appropriate to restrict the real estate too tightly under the requirements of steady growth. The real estate fundamentals have continued the obvious downward trend since the beginning of the year. We expect to see the substantial improvement of overall sales year-on-year around the middle of the year. The realization of the "virtuous circle" of real estate still needs time, and the two-way optimization of supply and demand is still needed. From the impact of the recent marginal loosening of policies, the decline of housing loan interest rates in first tier cities has a certain signal significance, which also reflects the necessity of "implementing policies due to the city". We expect that there is still a certain downward space for housing loan interest rates.
Wu Guoqing: since December last year, the real estate policy has been loosened, which is also part of the steady growth policy portfolio. At present, the 10-year LPR has been lowered, the mortgage policies of provinces and commercial banks have been relaxed, and the "three red lines" have also been relaxed in the direction of mergers and acquisitions. However, judging from the unspeakable reversal of the real estate sales data in recent two months, the pressure on real estate is more concentrated on the demand side. In consideration of solving the debt of real estate enterprises and the operating difficulties of upstream suppliers, I think it is still possible to further relax the real estate credit policy in the later stage, but the short-term macro residents' willingness to lend is not high, which may lengthen the transmission delay from the marginal reversal of the policy to the actual effect.
Li Yongxing: at present, the marginal loosening signal of real estate policy is increasing, but the support is relatively restrained. On the one hand, it is necessary to alleviate the pressure of credit risk on the real estate industry, improve the capital circulation, and optimize the structure of the real estate market by using affordable rental housing. On the other hand, it is necessary to adhere to the principle of "real estate without speculation" to prevent the irrational rise of house prices. Generally speaking, the loosening of real estate policy is within a certain limit. Phased hedging of macroeconomic downward pressure during the year, "real estate without speculation" is still the main line of medium and long-term policy. However, from the perspective of impact, the stabilization and relaxation of real estate will marginally enhance market sentiment and help stabilize the economy.
economic growth pressure remains high
monetary policy will remain relatively positive
China Fund News: under the steady growth policy, some analysts predict that there will be a significant economic recovery this year. What do you think? Will this have an impact on monetary policy
Han Xianwang: it is difficult to have too many bright spots in the macro economy this year. First of all, since last June, both the newly purchased land and the newly started area of real estate have shown a downward trend; Secondly, affected by the epidemic, the overall consumption is still weak and there is no sign of recovery; In terms of export, the predictability is not strong, and there is a lack of autonomy and controllability. Everyone has no bottom in mind about how much increase can be made in export this year; Infrastructure investment can play a greater role in stimulating the economy, which is very important for economic growth this year. Overall, economic growth is still under pressure this year.
Although major overseas economies have adopted quantitative easing monetary policy, China has always stressed that we should focus on maintaining a stable and neutral monetary policy. In the future, it may be difficult to fine tune monetary policy according to the impact of preventing financial risks and external economic shocks and in combination with China's economic trend, but there may be too much room for relaxation.
Lu Bin: at present, the policy of stabilizing growth is more to hedge the economic downturn than to significantly stimulate the economy. Therefore, the probability of significant economic recovery this year is small, and it is more to stabilize after the downturn. At present, the main goal of monetary policy is to stabilize growth. Before the economy stabilizes and picks up, monetary policy may still maintain a relatively loose range.
Zhou Weiwen: we expect the steady growth policy will continue to work in the future, which will help stabilize economic growth. Considering that real estate, export and epidemic prevention will still have a certain negative impact on the economy, we are cautious about this year's economic growth. Under this estimate, monetary policy will remain relatively positive.
Tang Xiaodong: China's demand was very strong in the first half of 2021. In the later period, with the credit contraction, the return of monetary policy to neutrality, and the suppression of industrial policies such as carbon neutral real estate, the economy went down significantly, but the momentum of the economy itself was still. Since the central economic work conference set the tone for steady growth at the end of 2021, credit has initially stabilized, the margin of real estate has relaxed, and fiscal expenditure has expanded. We are confident in economic stabilization. In terms of range, the general tone of infrastructure and real estate stimulus is not clear, so we do not think that the economy will be significantly boosted. It is expected that the macro-economy is more similar to the transition years of 2012 and 2019. Before the real estate recovers, the broad currency will continue. At present, geopolitical risks disturb the financial market, the rhythm of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve is expected to begin to weaken, and the space dominated by the Central Bank of China can be maintained.
Shawei: at present, the economy is still far from a significant recovery. Stabilizing the economy and employment remains the focus of this year's economic work. At present, preliminary results have been achieved, but it is still far from the goal. On the one hand, the gradual liberalization of overseas epidemic prevention and control and the gradual recovery of production momentum will inevitably have a certain impact on China's exports. On the other hand, China's consumption stimulus continues to be absent, the downside risk of real estate investment can not be ignored, and domestic demand needs to be further recovered. The investment side is the main and one of the few focuses, so the continuity and inertia of policy will still dominate the continuation of credit easing.
Wu Guoqing: I have full confidence in the determination and toolbox of the central government to stabilize the economy. I believe that China's economy will come out of the trough within this year, but the significant economic recovery in the future will be the result of the current and potential aggregate policy adjustment rather than the reason. In order to achieve the recovery, the central government will most likely make a positive response. However, in the aggregate policy, I think the adjustment of monetary policy has been basically in place in recent months. The marginal utility of the current credit policy adjustment may be more dominant. In the later stage, further policy adjustment may be carried out around the credit demand side.
Li Yongxing: at this stage, China is in the stage of macroeconomic bottoming, the liquidity margin in Europe and the United States is tightening or putting pressure on external demand, the marginal data of consumption still has room to be repaired compared with that before the epidemic, and the economy of the whole year is still facing challenges. In this context, all localities have clearly deployed the task of "stabilizing growth", which plays a positive role in promoting the forward movement of the inflection point at the bottom of the economy. Structurally, the pressure is more concentrated on the credit side than on the currency side. The reduction of MLF and LPR in January has left room for credit expansion. Considering the tightening of overseas liquidity and the weak necessity and possibility of further relaxation of monetary policy, it is expected that the aggregate policy in the later stage will be more inclined to release the demand for social financing.
historically, A-Shares rose more in the early stage of the two sessions
China Fund News reporter: Historically, how much impact did the two sessions have on the trend of a shares? Do the policies of the two sessions have an impact on your investment throughout the year
Lu Bin: the policies of the two sessions play a role in setting the tone of the policies of the whole year. The new policy changes in the two sessions will also have a great impact on the capital market, or become an important theme and track direction of the market, which deserves close attention.
Zhou Weiwen: we generally study medium and long-term investment opportunities and trends, pay less attention to market fluctuations in a few short days, and it is difficult to predict. The two sessions will not have a significant impact on the short-term A-share trend.
Tang Xiaodong: looking back from 2002 to 2021, we will find that the probability of A-Shares rising is high in the month before and after the two sessions. Since 2017, the probability of the rise of the Shanghai Composite Index in the month before and after the two sessions has been close to 80%, with most of the narrow range shocks during the two sessions. The impact of the policies of the two sessions on the annual investment is mainly reflected in the industrial direction. According to historical data, the new policy direction determined by the two sessions will become a new focus of the market throughout the year, and it is easier to get out of the market.
Shawei: historically, the A-share index mostly rose in the early stage of the two sessions, but with the two sessions approaching, the increase began to narrow gradually or even decline, the rise of China Securities 500 and gem index was relatively higher, and the small and medium-sized markets were more dominant. In the past, the market performance on the day of the two sessions was general. After the two sessions, the mood gradually warmed up, and the elasticity of small and medium-sized stocks and overvalued varieties was greater.
On the whole, the policies of the two sessions will eliminate the market's doubts about short-term policies and determine the development direction of the whole year and even the medium and long-term, which is of great reference significance to the investment layout of the whole year.
Wu Guoqing: historical experience shows that before the two sessions, the market performance is usually relatively active due to the impact of policy expectations - through the resumption of trading, it can be seen that in the 11 years since 2011, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown significant rise in 9 years, with a rise probability of more than 80%, of which the highest increase can reach 14.35%.
With the convening of the two sessions, the policy tone and economic growth objectives of that year were implemented one by one, and the market gradually returned to the flat period. At this stage, the probability of index rise is only 50-60%.
After the two sessions, with the advent of the window period of the annual report and the first quarterly report, the main logic of the market gradually returns to the fundamentals. Industries or sectors with high prosperity are often the target of capital pursuit. At the same time, some sectors with obvious benefits from policies will also become hot topics at this stage. From the medium and long-term perspective, the key areas of focus during the two sessions are expected to become the main line of investment throughout the year. For this year, the main line of stable growth, double carbon, scientific and technological innovation and self-control, and expanding domestic demand are expected to become the guidance of the policies of the two sessions this year.
Li Yongxing: from the performance of the A-share market before and after the two sessions over the years, from the Spring Festival to the two sessions, it is mostly the stage of "spring agitation", the performance of A-shares is usually more active, and the major broad-based indexes are mostly rising at this stage. With the convening of the two sessions and the release of a number of policies during the period, the previous policy expectations have been fulfilled.
Especially after the two sessions, A-Shares entered the disclosure period of large-scale annual report and first quarterly report, and the market trend tends to be stable. Usually, the main logic will gradually return to the fundamental drive, and the sectors with high performance certainty can often get more capital attention. At present, the market is looking forward to more policies related to "stable growth" released by the two sessions. In addition, some new hotspots may emerge and become the main investment line of the whole year.
steady growth policy and monetary policy are the most concerned
China Fund News reporter: the market style has changed greatly since 2022. What are the factors affecting the market at present? What do you value more
Han Xianwang: since the beginning of this year, some sectors have made large adjustments, which are influenced by their own high valuation and industrial policy adjustment.
In addition, affected by geopolitical and other factors, some funds in the market are also adjusting their asset allocation. The low valuation of traditional assets related to coal and oil prices has also attracted some hedge funds. It is expected that this year's market style is still more biased towards dividend and value market.
Yang Jianhua: from the market trend since the beginning of the year, it deviates from our expectations. At present, the market adjustment is much larger than we expected, mainly for the following reasons: first, the new energy sector, which was fully interpreted last year, has been adjusted, which is basically in line with expectations. Although we are optimistic about the new energy sector for a long time, However, the performance overdraft has a certain valuation, which needs to be concussed and digested for a period of time. On the other hand, there are also inconsistencies with expectations. At present, the market is further killing the valuation. Consumer medicine, which was fully adjusted last year, killed another wave of valuation this year, and the valuation focus of the market is moving down, which reflects that investors are still cautious about this year to a certain extent.
The main risk points affecting the market in the near future are: first, the clarity of the Fed's interest rate increase and contraction table. The Fed's interest rate hike and scale reduction are major external factors. From the past impact, the three scale reductions since 2008 have caused a certain decline or obvious shock of the S & P 500 index. The follow-up liquidity of the market and the performance of the external capital market have yet to be implemented in March, with strong short-term wait-and-see sentiment.
Second, the use time and intensity of China's steady growth policy tools are expected to be poor. In January, China conducted MLF and open market reverse repo operations. The operating interest rate was reduced by 10 basis points, and the policy remained determined. There was still much room for subsequent policy tools to stabilize growth. However, the above operations may be lower than some market expectations, which had a certain impact on the market sentiment.
In addition, the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the poor performance of the annual report and the first quarterly report window, and the associated impact of the empty and sharp decline of US science and technology dividends will all bring uncertainties to a shares.
Zhou Weiwen: the factors affecting the market in 2022 include macroeconomic trend and monetary policy, including Fed policy, market valuation, geopolitics and other factors. We are full of confidence in the medium - and long-term prospects of China's economy. From this perspective, the medium and long term are relatively certain, and the market valuation is an important factor affecting the market. In the medium term, macroeconomic trends and fed policies will have a certain impact on the stock market.
Lu Bin: at present, the factors affecting the market are as follows: first, the tightening of the Federal Reserve has brought about the correction of global risky assets; Second, China's steady growth policies have been introduced one after another, and the marginal monetary policy is loose; Third, geopolitical risks have intensified, and the upward trend of bulk commodities has brought increased inflationary pressure. The A-share market is more dependent on its own fundamentals, so China's steady growth policy and monetary policy need more attention.
Tang Xiaodong: the change of market style since 2022 is mainly related to China's macro environment, the tightening of the Federal Reserve and some changes in capital flow. First, value stocks benefit from changes in the macro cycle. After the central economic work conference in 2021, the tone of China's steady growth was established, the credit cycle transitioned from contraction to stabilization and recovery, and the environment of broad currency was superimposed. The core suppression factors of value stocks in 2021 were relieved, and the traditional value stocks rebounded under the expectation of periodic stabilization. Growth stocks are under the pressure of game capital position adjustment in the short term.
But when we look at growth stocks, we pay more attention to the medium and long-term performance brought by the certainty of industrial trends. Basically, there is no major change in the industrial trend of popular track sectors such as medicine, consumption and new energy, and the performance forecast is also good. Therefore, the periodic decline actually provides an opportunity for long-term layout. As for A-Shares as a whole, we also need to pay attention to the disturbance caused by the tightening of liquidity by the Federal Reserve this year. However, the current volume support of the Chinese market is mainly me. It is expected that the tightening of liquidity in the United States will pose a low probability of systemic risk to a shares.
Shawei: since the beginning of the year, the market has continued to decline, and the style has changed significantly. There are two main factors: first, the switching of macro style leads to the switching of equity market style. Since the steady growth policy came into force in the fourth quarter of 2021, credit has stabilized and expanded, the bottom of the macro economy has been gradually confirmed, and the profit margin in the direction of steady growth has improved, including financial and real estate sectors, which directly drives the market style from growth style to value style.
Second, peripheral market risk contagion. U.S. inflation remained high, U.S. bond interest rates rose rapidly, and U.S. stock growth stocks experienced a significant adjustment, which emotionally disturbed China's growth style. Among these two factors, I personally pay more attention to the former. The short-term main line of the market still focuses on credit easing and steady growth. The market style tends to be balanced, and it is expected to usher in a comprehensive valuation repair market.
Wu Guoqing: in the past two months, under the influence of a series of factors such as the release of hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, the expected warming of steady growth and the continuous repetition of the epidemic, there has been a round of significant adjustment in the A-share market. The funds in the venue have gradually switched from the previous popular track to the undervalued value sector. In terms of market performance, at this stage, the previously hot sectors such as new energy, semiconductor and military industry continue to adjust, while the low undervalued sectors of Finance and cycle are relatively dominant.
Looking ahead, the current downward trend has largely taken into account the impact of adverse factors such as economic downward revision. Under the environment of large amount of credit and constant catalyst for steady growth, the oversold rebound in the short term is expected to gradually unfold, but considering the fundamental factors, it is expected that the overall opportunity is small, The opportunity of index level rise still needs to wait until the turning point of profit bottoming and recovery in the second half of the year.
Li Yongxing: since the beginning of the year, the volatility of major global markets has generally increased, the "Hawk" statements of the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and some European countries have brought liquidity concerns, and some regional conflicts continue to ferment; In China, the policy of "steady growth" has been gradually strengthened, but investor sentiment remains cautious until there are no obvious signs of stabilization in the economic data. The spread of the Chinese epidemic has also exacerbated investors' concerns about economic growth, especially consumption.
The interweaving of multiple factors led to the flow of funds from the high boom track to the defensive sector with high safety margin and low valuation. The sectors such as banking, infrastructure and travel, catering and aviation expected to reverse the dilemma showed more resistance to the decline, while the popular tracks such as new energy and semiconductor ushered in continuous adjustment.
In the follow-up, with the accelerated implementation of the steady growth policy and the normalization of the epidemic prevention policy, the pessimism about the lack of confidence in broad credit due to weak fundamentals is expected to be alleviated, and the market is expected to usher in a repair rebound after the oversold. However, the continuous upward situation needs to wait for the obvious improvement of economic expectations and the full release of overseas risks.
while optimistic about "value reversal"
one side is optimistic about high-quality growth
China Fund News reporter: in your opinion, what is the main line of investment in 2022 this year? Which sectors are you optimistic about
Han Xianwang: as the sales volume of new energy vehicles and the overall installed capacity of photovoltaic continue to grow at a high speed, there will be more and more supply chain opportunities in the new energy segment market. Throughout the year, we are still relatively optimistic about investment opportunities in the new energy industry chain.
In addition, in terms of science and technology, we are also relatively optimistic about independent and controllable innovation assets. Such assets are not easily affected by overseas supply chains and global political factors, which is also the direction of development strongly encouraged by the government. Previously, in the field of independent and controllable investment, we paid more attention to the semiconductor industry. In fact, in the field of hard science and technology dominated by the government, such as overseas substitution of key core parts, there are also many high-quality enterprises with rapid growth.
Yang Jianhua: closely observe the market dynamics, pay attention to the performance growth range and valuation cost performance of high-quality listed companies, adopt the steady position increase strategy of selecting individual stocks and buying more when falling, and actively capture the investment opportunities brought by the market correction.
First, we are optimistic about the consumption upgrading with constant logic, which is a sector we have always been optimistic about. In the short term, the consumer industry is indeed depressed under the downward pressure of the epidemic and macro-economy, but we also see that the measures for epidemic prevention and control are gradually more relaxed and flexible, and we expect that the impact of more normalized epidemic prevention measures on the whole consumption, employment and economic activities will be weakened step by step. At present, it is a time when the fundamentals of the large consumption sector are weak and the configuration is relatively good.
Second, it is more optimistic about some midstream manufacturing industries whose performance was suppressed due to the impact of the epidemic and cost pressure last year, including consumer services and consumer goods manufacturing. This year, when these constraints are gradually alleviated or subsided, the industry performance is expected to be repaired. Of course, there are also uncertainties about whether the cost pressure can be alleviated. We do not expect the cost to decline rapidly, but as long as the trend remains stable, the pressure will be greatly relieved compared with last year. Of course, we will also closely observe whether the operation of energy prices and commodity prices can meet expectations, flatten the high level or slow down.
Third, the high-end equipment manufacturing sector represented by new energy and military industry is also promising for a long time. However, it needs to be closely observed which links have strong competitive advantages and can be maintained for a long time. The sharp rise last year actually reflects the relatively optimistic expectation to some extent. At present, the valuation is at a high level. We think there should be good investment prospects after the shock digestion of the valuation.
Lu Bin: at present, we prefer "high-quality growth" to become the main investment opportunity in the follow-up market. Under the trend of China's economic structure transformation, industrial upgrading and scientific and technological innovation, we have seen more and more high-quality growth industries and companies (new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, medicine, new consumption, TMT technology, etc.). Due to the explosion of industrial demand, the increase of global market share, the large volume of new products or import substitution, the overall industry space is large, The competitiveness of the company is increasingly strengthened, and it is expected to achieve a rapid compound growth rate in the next few years.
This general trend will not change with the fluctuation of short-term capital market. Through the comparison of meso industries and the research of individual stocks from bottom to top, at present, the valuations of many growth industries and companies have become more attractive for investment because of the decline of the market or the growth of performance. Therefore, we believe that the investment main line of the follow-up market is "high-quality growth".
Zhou Weiwen: dilemma reversal industry is an important investment clue in 2022, including catering, hotel, tourism, transportation, performing arts, aquaculture and other industries. Although the epidemic has not yet subsided, we are optimistic that the probability of getting out of the epidemic and returning to normal production and life in the next year or two is still relatively high, which will bring significant investment opportunities to the above industries. In the third and fourth quarters of 2021, the aquaculture industry has experienced a period of serious losses for decades. The profits of the industry are expected to return to normal in the next one or two years, which may bring relevant investment opportunities.
Tang Xiaodong: from 2019 to 2021, the market experienced extreme reversals after many extreme styles, and there is a great possibility of sector rotation in 2022.
At present, with high certainty, driven by the steady growth policy, the macro economy is expected to stabilize at the bottom, which supports the underperforming value stocks and large cap stocks in 2021, and the traditional value sectors are dominant, such as infrastructure, building materials, big finance, etc.
On the other hand, for the growth sector with good performance in 2021, the current industrial trend is still positive, so the risk of systematic decline is relatively controllable. From the perspective of longer investment cycle, the low-carbon sector with good industrial trend will create better allocation opportunities if there is a correction in the short-term rotation. From the perspective of industrial policy promotion, we can pay attention to green power and power grid in energy construction and digital economy to ease inflation.
Shawei: in summary, it can be divided into four main lines: energy replacement, new and old infrastructure, real estate correction and consumption stabilization. First, energy replacement is a long-term process, which will be accompanied by friction and pain. We believe that the new energy industry chain will continue to develop rapidly in 2022, but the structural market of traditional energy such as petrochemical chain due to insufficient long-term capital expenditure is also worthy of attention.
Second, new and old infrastructure is an important starting point for "steady growth" this year. The old infrastructure still carries most of the investment volume, while the new infrastructure is more flexible under the guidance of the development of "digital economy".
Third, the correction of real estate deviation has been mentioned in the previous problems. Compared with last year, the real estate and the real estate chain, especially the post real estate cycle industry, is expected to usher in a wave of repair.
Fourth, the recovery of consumption is still worth looking forward to. China's consumption situation is poor in 2021 and the performance of the consumer industry is weak. It is expected to stabilize in 2022 with the support of policy promotion and epidemic prevention and control.
Wu Guoqing: since this year, under the environment of large credit volume, the market has relatively abundant residual liquidity, and the style of small and medium-sized stocks is expected to continue. First, the proportion of "steady growth" in macro policies has increased significantly since this year; Second, under the catalysis of energy revolution, intelligence and self-control, emerging industries including new energy, semiconductor and 5g are still in the boom diffusion cycle. Small and medium-sized stocks in related fields are still expected to be the main theme of 2022.
In terms of specific configuration, it is suggested to pay attention to three clues: first, if there is no boom track including new energy vehicles, large new energy bases, semiconductors and military industry that is lower than expected at the industrial level, it will still be the direction of core attack after phased adjustment; Second, new investment directions in steady growth, such as nuclear power and hydrogen energy; Third, the TMT sector that is expected to become the main line in the next 1-2 years includes 5g + industrial Internet, metauniverse, Huawei supply chain and ecosystem (such as financial innovation, semiconductor equipment and materials).
Li Yongxing: focuses on three main industries. The first is the leading real estate company. Last year, the real estate policy had a great impact, resulting in the risk exposure of some private enterprises. At the same time, the transmission of real estate sales last year has doubled, affecting the acquisition of land and construction. If there is no sharp decline in demand in a year or two, the real estate industry may be in short supply, At that time, house prices will also face upward pressure. Therefore, from the perspective of real estate policy, it is necessary to correct the deviation. For leading real estate companies, whether the policy is corrected or not, there will be good investment opportunities. If the policy is corrected, it will usher in overall investment opportunities; If the policy is more stringent, the market share and profit margin of leading companies may double up, ushering in the opportunity of systematic valuation improvement.
Second, pay attention to the opportunities of new energy power generation, energy storage and distribution network transformation under the double carbon policy. Last year, the double carbon policy was vigorously promoted, which had a certain impact on the power consumption of people's livelihood. Therefore, the double carbon policy will be corrected to a certain extent. This means that the suppression of upstream supply and the control of energy consumption indicators may be relaxed to a certain extent. Under the background that the general direction of the double carbon policy remains unchanged, the investment in new energy power generation and the transformation of supporting energy storage power grid will increase. Therefore, there may still be good investment opportunities in the long run.
Third, focus on smart car investment opportunities. In recent years, the development of new energy vehicles mainly focuses on battery technology. At the current stage, the intelligent experience provided by new energy vehicles will become one of the new focuses to seize market share. In the field of intelligent vehicles, the speed of industrial chain promotion is expected to accelerate. The certification cycle of intelligent parts usually takes more than three years, but the new forces of car manufacturing have shortened the certification cycle to one to two years, greatly accelerating the promotion of the industrial chain. In 2022, smart cars, including automotive electronics industry chain, will be one of our focuses.
