review: from November 2021, the steady growth direction represented by state-owned enterprise real estate will be the first. In the top ten forecasts of 2022, it is judged that "a wave of undervalued repair market similar to 'mini version 2014' is expected to appear in 2022".
Outlook: the market ushers in phased repair, but the probability of "V-shaped" reversal in the short term is small, and March is still an important observation window. In the second quarter, the main line may be biased towards scientific and technological growth again
market ushered in phased repair since the beginning of the year, the high prosperity and hard science and technology growth track represented by the "new half army" has been significantly adjusted due to the impact of multiple factors such as the rising concern of the Federal Reserve about raising interest rates, the sharp decline of US stocks, especially science and technology stocks, the high degree of market transaction congestion, the deterioration of micro liquidity, and some investors' concern about the deterioration of the long-term outlook of relevant sectors. At present, as the market's panic about the Fed's interest rate hike has eased, the transaction congestion has dropped to an all-time low, the main funds have returned and increased their positions in advance, the incremental funds of ETF have continued to flow in, and the sectors such as medicine and the "new half army" have led the phased repair of the market.
but the probability of "V-shaped" reversal in the short term is small, and March is still an important observation window 1, the landing of the Fed's interest rate increase and the trend of US bond interest rate since the beginning of the year, the sharp rise of US bond interest rate has been an important factor dragging down China's risk appetite, especially for the "new half army" and other sectors. The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will be held on March 16. Recently, although the market's expectation of raising interest rates by 50bp in March has dropped significantly, raising interest rates six times during the year is gradually becoming a market consensus. According to the current federal funds rate futures, the market expects the fed to speed up slightly in March, may, June, July, September and November. On the whole, under short-term inflation and geopolitical pressure, the Fed's interest rate hike in March is a high probability event. More importantly, it is important to observe the Fed's position on the follow-up economic and policy trends 2. For China, the two sessions will be held on March 4 focus on the layout of short-term "stable growth" and long-term high-quality development by the decision-making level, including the setting of important indicators such as GDP growth target and fiscal deficit ratio 3 and in the middle and late March, on the one hand, the prosperity indicators of popular tracks, such as the sales volume of new energy vehicles and the prospect of the first quarter report, will be released one after another at present, the market has different expectations for the prosperity of the popular track represented by the "new semi army", and the relevant data will become an important signal for the confirmation of the prosperity on the other hand, China's economic and financial data from January to February will also be released, which will become an important basis for the market to judge the effect of "steady growth" in the early stage and predict the rhythm and intensity of follow-up policies 4, the progress of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the price trend of bulk commodities such as oil price previously, the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine once led to a sharp decline in the global market and the price of crude oil exceeded US $100 / barrel. It will continue to be an important variable affecting the market, especially commodity prices and global supply and demand pattern.
in the second quarter, the main line may be biased towards scientific and technological growth again combined with the ten indicators proposed in the "new half army" timing framework, China's liquidity continues to be loose, the prosperity of the "new half army" remains high, the trading congestion has dropped to a historical low, the leading stocks of new energy and semiconductors have stabilized first, the main funds have returned and increased their positions in advance, the incremental funds of ETF continue to flow in, and the valuation level has also fallen sharply, The "new half army" has entered the bottom area. With the fall of the boots of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in mid March and the strongest expectation of interest rate increase in the market, the US bond interest rate may be expected to stop rising periodically. According to the prediction of the leading indicator of analysts' expected correction intensity in the "new half army" timing framework, we believe that the main line in the second quarter may be biased towards scientific and technological growth again.
investment strategy: in the short term, first, find the target that meets the characteristics of "small high-tech" from bottom to top in the medicine, computer and "new half army" with more adjustments; Second, oil, petrochemicals and other bulk resource products that are expected to increase in price under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine; Third, under the "steady growth", the undervalued value of financial, real estate and other sectors was repaired. In the long term, we will continue to focus on the five major directions of scientific and technological innovation 1) new energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
risk tips: focus on the unexpected return of global capital to the United States and the game between China and the United States.
