Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) (300363)
1、 Event overview
On November 30, 2021, the company received a new batch of purchase orders from a large pharmaceutical company in the United States, which are contract customized R & D and production (cdmo) service orders related to a small molecule innovative drug. The company has received a total of 217 million US dollars (about 1.386 billion yuan) of orders for related products in the past 12 consecutive months.
2、 Analysis and judgment
The release of new production capacity highly matches the demand for large orders, and ushers in a new inflection point of operation next year
Most of the production capacity of Yuyang pharmaceutical acquired by the company in August this year will be released at the beginning of next year. The production capacity of the three major production bases is nearly 2000m3 to meet the diversified needs of customers. The delivery cycle of large orders is 2021-2022. We believe that most of the newly signed orders will realize revenue next year, bringing high flexibility to next year's performance.
Establish a good cooperative relationship, and the company enters the list of important suppliers of customers
The company's sales to this customer in the last three years are as follows: (due to the characteristics of cdmo industry, the products of the same end customer may be directly sold to the customer itself and its subsidiaries, or its designated suppliers. In order to truly and accurately reflect the essence of the business, the following revenue for the customer is the business standard, which may be different from the financial accounting standard): in 2018, the customer's revenue was 37.82 million yuan, accounting for 3.19% of the current year's operating revenue; in 2019, the customer's revenue The income was 58.46 million yuan, accounting for 3.77% of the operating income of the current year; In 2020, the customer's revenue was 103.46 million yuan, accounting for 4.99% of the operating revenue of the current year.
In the era of boten 3.0, Trinity international cdmo service providers welcome the new wave
After 2022, the drug substance cdmo + Preparation cdmo + biological cdmo Troika will keep pace.
1) API cdmo: the driving force of short-term performance growth, and the upgrading of product structure accelerates.
2) Preparation cdmo: medium and long-term growth point, API + Preparation integrated service mode is deepened, moat, laboratory R & D and commercial production capacity are under active construction, and the future can be expected.
3) Biological cdmo: a medium and long-term growth point with huge precision card space, which does not meet the outsourcing blue ocean market - cell gene therapy track. The three-stage capability circle is increasing step by step. It is expected to become the first echelon of global cell gene therapy cdmo after 2025.
3、 Investment advice
Based on the landing of large orders, we raised the company's performance expectations. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 500 million, RMB 890 million and RMB 990 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 54%, 78% and 11%, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
4、 Risk tips:
The risk of performance falling short of expectations, exchange rate fluctuation risk, new business investment risk and fixed asset investment risk.
