I. overseas markets: geopolitical tensions have escalated and the global market has fluctuated sharply the impact of the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the Fed's monetary policy is both positive and negative: on the one hand, the continued tension of geographical events may further push up global inflation through the price of crude oil, thus accelerating the process of interest rate hike between the United States and Europe, but on the other hand, once the United States and the European Union launch economic sanctions against Russia, Major countries such as Europe and the United States may delay economic recovery due to the influence of cross-border industrial chain. The delay of global economic recovery will weaken the probability of strong interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in March. According to CME's observation, the market's expectation of the Fed's strong interest rate hike at the interest rate meeting in March has dropped. At present, the market expects the probability of 50bp interest rate hike in March to be 24%, compared with 49% two weeks ago.
II. The impact of geo risk events on the equity market is usually short-lived geopolitical events are mostly caused by the decline of investors' risk appetite in the early stage, which makes the global market fluctuate. Unless the event pushes the economy into recession, the warming of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may also have a temporary impact on the fluctuation of the A-share market. First, once the United States and NATO member states launch economic sanctions against Russia, the global industrial chain supply will be further frustrated. At that time, China is expected to continue to enjoy the "double surplus" of foreign trade with its complete product supply chain; Second, at present, RMB assets have been given the attribute of hedging, which can be seen from the exchange rate between China and the United States; Third, from the perspective of A-share itself, the current A-share risk premium is close to the historical average, doubling the standard deviation, and the A-share market is cost-effective.
III. The core variable of China's economic recovery is not external factors, but the time when the credit easing effect appears 1 on January 10, the national standing committee pointed out that the current economic operation is at the critical juncture of climbing over the barrier, and steady growth should be put in a more prominent position. The higher than expected credit and social finance data in January also confirmed that the current "steady growth" policy is gradually strengthening. Recently, a number of ministries and commissions have made intensive calls, and meetings have been held from the central to local governments to set priorities for this year's economic work. A series of specific measures have been deployed around stabilizing industrial operation, promoting consumption, stabilizing investment and bailing out small and medium-sized enterprises. In the context of economic work with stability at the forefront and seeking progress in stability, the proactive fiscal policy will continue to exert force and improve efficiency, and the monetary policy will strengthen cross cyclical and counter cyclical regulation.
IV. investment strategy: repeatedly grind the bottom to make it more solid, and bargain hunting layout of three main lines affected by geopolitical emergencies, investors' risk appetite decreased, resulting in increased volatility of global assets. Given that China has a complete industrial chain and little inflation pressure in China, RMB assets have been given the attribute of risk aversion. It is expected that the disturbance of overseas risk events to the A-share market is relatively short. The following two sessions will be held, and it is expected that the steady growth policy will still be intensively implemented, and A-Shares are still in the policy dividend period; In addition, A-share enterprises have successively entered the disclosure period of the first quarterly report of the annual report, and the sectors with high profit growth and business reversal will become the main line. In terms of configuration, there are three main investment lines: bargain hunting layout:
First, the policy of "steady growth" allocated varieties, such as " banks, real estate, building materials and construction ";
Second, the expected benefit of price increase (price increase), " food and beverage, breeding, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) ";
Third, it is related to the themes that benefit from the promotion of policies (support), " new energy (vehicles), digital economy, counting East and West, agriculture, rural areas and farmers ".
■ risk tips: geo risk escalation; Repeated outbreaks outside China; Large fluctuations in overseas markets; The profit of the enterprise is less than expected.
