Industry view of this week (this week refers to February 21 to February 25, 2022, the same below)
Since February 2022, the international situation has been turbulent, and the price of gold has increased significantly. Since February 2022, the international situation has been tense and changeable, and the conflict has further intensified. Affected by various news, the international capital market fluctuated sharply. From February 1 to February 25, the closing prices of Comex gold and silver futures have risen by 5.1% / 6.0% respectively, and investors have strong risk aversion. In the short term, the global regional conflicts increase the risk aversion motivation and drive the gold price higher; In the medium and long term, some historical relics are difficult to be completely solved in the short term, and global macro policy factors are still the main wind vane of the gold market.
At the beginning of the rise of gold price, the rise of gold price can promote consumption, and when the gold price is relatively high, gold itself also has a certain investment hedging attribute. Gold is the main consumer goods in China’s jewelry market. In 2020, gold jewelry consumption accounted for 52% of the jewelry industry. Gold consumption is related to the trend of gold price to some extent. Generally speaking, when the gold price rises in the early stage, gold consumption is positively related to the price rise. When the gold price is already high, gold itself also has a certain investment hedging attribute.
The consumption attribute of gold is highlighted. The change of consumer concept and the improvement of gold jewelry technology have led to the rise of gold jewelry consumption. In addition to the investment attribute, the consumption attribute of gold has also driven the expansion of the gold jewelry market in recent years. The rise of gold consumption attribute is mainly driven by two factors: (1) consumers are more willing to pay for brands and products with Chinese cultural elements; (2) gold jewelry has a more sense of design after process improvement. At present, ancient arts and crafts and hard metals are favored by consumers. It is recommended that Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Zhou Dafu, Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , etc.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation is repeated, the prosperity of terminal consumption is declining, and the market competition is intensifying.
