Hainan Haide Capital Management Co.Ltd(000567) (000567)
Event overview
On November 30, Hainan Haide Capital Management Co.Ltd(000567) announced that its indirect controlling shareholder Yongtai technology investment and its controlling shareholder Yongtai group and its subsidiaries Hainan Xiangyuan investment, Hainan xinhaiji investment and Yongtai urban construction group held the second creditors' meeting for substantive merger and reorganization, The meeting voted and approved the substantive merger and reorganization plan (Draft) of the above five companies, which needs to be approved by the Nanjing Intermediate People's court.
Analysis and judgment:
Previously, due to the uncertainty of debt restructuring of shareholders and the possibility of debt default of Yongtai technology, although the listed company operates independently of shareholders, the market is still worried about the possibility of affecting the normal production and operation of the company. Hainan Haide Capital Management Co.Ltd(000567) said that the merger and reorganization of five companies including Yongtai group was approved by the creditors' meeting, which will effectively resolve their debt problems and restore their stable development. It will have a positive impact on the company's ability to improve financing and promote business development.
Focus on AMC and keep improving performance
Since the transformation of non-performing asset management business, the company's operating revenue and profit level have been significantly improved. In the first three quarters of 2021, Hainan Haide Capital Management Co.Ltd(000567) achieved a revenue of 393 million yuan and a net profit of 231 million yuan, an increase of 64.15% and 99.63% over the same period in 2020; ROE5. 03%, with net assets of 4.589 billion yuan, total assets of 6.463 billion yuan and leverage ratio of about 1.41 times, lower than that of China Cinda and China Huarong in the same period. From 2020 to the end of September this year, the balance of non-performing assets on the company's balance sheet increased from about 4.75 billion yuan to about 5.81 billion yuan, an increase of about 22.3%. The steady growth of business laid a foundation for the company's future performance.
Expand business scope and channels in an orderly manner
In July 2021, the company announced that Haide asset management, a wholly-owned subsidiary, was approved to carry out the pilot business qualification of non-performing loan transfer, further expanding the business scope of corporate and personal non-performing assets; In August, Haide asset management Southwest Branch was announced to speed up business expansion and promote the implementation of the project; In the same month, the announcement signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Guangxi Branch of Oriental asset management company.
Grasp the opportunity of economic recovery and take advantage of Hainan plate
Since 2020, affected by the epidemic, China's macroeconomic growth has slowed down and the fundamentals of enterprises have been tested. However, with the effective epidemic prevention and control in China and the positive effect of dynamic zeroing on the industrial chain, the export data continued to exceed expectations, and the economic structure tended to be healthy. By the end of September 2021, the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks had reached 2833.494 billion yuan, an increase of 132.017 billion yuan (4.89%) over the beginning of the year. The non-performing loan ratio was 1.75%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points over the beginning of the year. The company actively distributes its business inside and outside Hainan Province and takes advantage of policy advantages and market-oriented mechanism to seize the opportunity. In 2020 Hainan Haide Capital Management Co.Ltd(000567) , the main business income in Hainan Province will be 42.03 million yuan.
Investment advice
AMC industry is counter cyclical, actively invests in the economic downturn and gains great flexibility in the economic recovery stage. The company is the only A-share non-performing asset management company with AMC license and the only financial stock in Hainan plate. It has the advantages of location, capital, listing platform and talents. The company is expected to play a greater role in financial services to the real economy in combination with national industrial policies and based on its responsibility to resolve financial risks. The process of resolving the shareholder debt problem has been steadily promoted, which has alleviated the market's concerns about the company's operation and cash flow to a certain extent.
Because the company's third quarter financial report exceeded expectations and AMC's business expansion was orderly promoted, we raised the company's forecast of revenue of RMB 323 / 371 million from 2021 to 2022 to RMB 471 / 565 million, and raised eps0.0 from 2021 to 2022 15 / 0.18 yuan to 0.39/0.48 yuan; It is predicted that the revenue in 2023 will be 622 million yuan, with eps0.1 billion yuan 51 yuan. Corresponding to the closing price of 19.86 yuan / share on December 1, 2021, PE is 51 / 42 / 39 times respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating of the company.
Risk statement
1) Macro aspect: the company's non-performing assets industry is closely related to the real economy, financial risks and regulatory policies. Macroeconomic policies, non-performing assets industry supervision and other factors will have a significant impact on the company's operation, including but not limited to the risk that the economic recovery does not meet expectations, the price of mortgages and pledges decreases, enterprise project operation is difficult, the disposal of non-performing assets projects is more difficult, and the disposal cycle of non-performing assets is prolonged.
2) Competition pattern: the number of participants in the non-performing asset management industry has increased, resulting in the risk of intensified competition. The company will face the competitive pressure from the five major state-owned asset management companies with first mover advantage, provincial and local asset management companies, financial asset investment companies and secondary market investment institutions.
3) Business development: with the expansion of non-performing asset investment scale, the company's internal risk control and compliance capabilities need to be improved accordingly, and attention should be paid to the capital turnover risk of too fast project investment pace. Moreover, because the investors do not know the specific project information, it is difficult to evaluate the key elements such as income expectation, risk exposure and industrial concentration of the project.
4) The impact of market fluctuations on stock prices: the downside risk of the global economy and the increasing uncertainty of the international situation and epidemic situation; The risk of significant depreciation of RMB against the US dollar; Fluctuations in US stocks may have an impact on a shares; The control of the epidemic and weak economic recovery may lead to the risk of liquidity tightening.
