Inmyshow Digital Technology (Group) Co.Ltd(600556) (600556)
Core view
In the era of tight traffic, the "decentralized" effect marketing scheme: with the progress of big data and algorithms, the visual analysis of exposure, clicks, visits and consultation ensures the accurate delivery and subsequent optimization of effect advertising to a certain extent. KOL marketing creates fans' loyalty to the brand through high interaction with fans, guides fans to imitate and follow the trend, and then improves brand image and popularity. It is regarded as one of the first choices for effect advertising. The decentralized characteristics of KOL marketing not only reduce the cost of advertisers, but also increase the number of audiences and improve the communication efficiency.
Live broadcast of the e-commerce catalytic track and popular people help the rise of domestic products: domestic new consumer brands have achieved rapid growth with their own height and cost performance, technological upgrading of the whole industry chain and unique local cultural advantages. The development of domestic brands is inseparable from innovation and R & D, as well as the help of popular economy. At the same time, the rise of new domestic brands without lack of policy support has also helped the popular economic industry usher in a period of explosive growth.
The high-quality celebrities at the head are scarce, and the celebrities at the waist and tail usher in new opportunities: compared with the celebrities at the head, the number of fans at the waist and tail is relatively small, which is not easy to form a strong voice; The commission fee is low, which reduces the cost of advertisers; Among them, the fan data of Koc, a representative group, is more authentic, and the impact of water injection data is relatively small. Therefore, the value of waist and tail red man is gradually valued by advertisers. The proportion of advertisers in the overall investment scale of Koc is rising all the way, which is conducive to the development and growth of the popular economic industry, and is also in line with the pursuit of "decentralized" marketing mode in the general environment.
Internet marketing is a blue ocean, and the leading market share has broad potential to increase: at present, the scale of KOL marketing market accounts for about 13% of the Internet marketing market share, and it is still in the blue ocean market stage. With the continuous exploration of the characteristics of low investment cost and strong liquidity of celebrity marketing, more and more advertisers use celebrity marketing, and the proportion has increased by 5.01% in recent three years, There is still a huge space for the development of celebrity marketing in the future. At present, the competition pattern of the popular economy industry is scattered, and the main companies include Xinbang, Weibo easy, Inmyshow Digital Technology (Group) Co.Ltd(600556) , Weimeng, Chuanyi, kuyiyun, outer city circle, etc. the market share of the industry leader Inmyshow Digital Technology (Group) Co.Ltd(600556) is only 4.30% at present, and there is broad room for improvement in the future.
Build a platform to meet the marketing needs of celebrities and build a high-quality customer whole case service brand: the weiq platform is data-driven, connects enterprises with marketing needs and celebrities with marketing supply capacity, and provides one-stop cross platform delivery services for the majority of brand owners, small and medium-sized enterprises and other partners. Smart whole case marketing service brand provides more comprehensive fan economy solutions to help large enterprises in various industries cope with the challenges brought by the accelerating digitization of new media. Its main businesses include market research, strategy formulation, resource integration, technology development, etc.
The scale of active merchants continues to increase, and the efficient matching mechanism supports high retention rate: with the first mover advantage in data, weiq platform can secondary process the data of each platform to remove false data, so as to ensure more thorough analysis results, finer labels, higher matching accuracy and lower customer marketing cost. Therefore, the brand merchants connected with weiq platform The number of small and medium-sized businesses showed an upward trend. By the first half of 2021, the number of active merchant customers on the weiq platform had reached 5165, accounting for 61.92% of the total number of customers in 2020. Due to the initial appearance of platform scale effect and good reputation, the number of active merchants and customers of weiq platform has increased; At the same time, the number of orders increased significantly. In the first half of 2021, the number of orders reached 1846400, surpassing that of last year.
The number of MCN institutions settled on weiq platform has reached 9070 by the first half of 2021, an increase of 1579 compared with the end of 2020, and the number of popular accounts has reached 1811300, including 422200 professional popular accounts, an increase of 131600 compared with the end of 2020, covering most popular resources in the market. As of the first half of 2021, the waist and tail celebrities accounted for 57.81% and 24.06% of the company's revenue respectively, while the head celebrities accounted for only 16.85%, which not only protected the interests of the waist and tail celebrities, but also reduced the company's operating risks.
The Red Man economic industry chain continues to extend, testing new consumer brands and virtual social networking: Inmyshow Digital Technology (Group) Co.Ltd(600556) provide red people at different stages with all-round accelerated empowerment services, including one-stop solutions such as red man training, content creative operation, business trusteeship, IP incubation, brand communication and capital docking, and gradually create more decentralized and innovative business models. Inmyshow Digital Technology (Group) Co.Ltd(600556) is committed to exploring the combination of new consumer market and popular economic model. It has created many new consumer brands, such as Huang cuixian, Luo Yuanyuan, home cat diary and so on. As of September 2021, the diary of the house cat has been selling for tens of thousands of yuan in three consecutive months. Its tiktok cheese biscuits frequently hit the top of the list of vibrato products, laying a solid foundation for further follow-up in the field.
We expect the company to achieve an operating revenue of RMB 4.53/61.3/8 billion from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 48.0% / 35.4% / 30.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 3.8/6.0/750 million, with a year-on-year increase of 28.5% / 57.0% / 25.0%, corresponding to EPS of RMB 0.20/0.31/0.39 and PE of 71.8x/45.8x/36.6x. Combined with the scarcity of the subject matter and the growth space of the industry, we believe that the reasonable PE of the company in 2022 is between 53-61 times, and the corresponding target price is 16.43-18.91 yuan. For the first time, give a "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the macro environment changes dramatically; Changes in platform regulatory policies; Moral hazard of Internet Celebrities; The development of new consumer brands is less than expected; R & D management cost increased more than expected; The brand customer didn't collect the payment in time.
