\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 518 Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) )
Event: the company released the 2021 performance express.
New energy orders entered the accelerated delivery period, and the company's operating revenue accelerated in 2021
In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.399 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 59.39%, of which Q4 achieved a revenue of 480 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19.97%, setting a new high of the company's revenue in a single quarter. The company's revenue in 2021 slightly exceeded our expectations. The main reasons are: on the one hand, due to the impact of covid-19 epidemic in 2020, the shipment, installation and commissioning of equipment were delayed, affecting the progress of equipment acceptance, However, there were many new orders signed in 2020, with 1.508 billion new orders (including tax) signed throughout the year; In 2021, the number of employees of the company continued to grow, the production efficiency and capacity continued to improve, and the delivery and confirmation of orders accelerated, driving the company to achieve a significant increase in revenue in 2021. Leading enterprises in the new energy industry have increased their capacity expansion, and the demand for power battery production equipment has increased. New orders signed in 2021h1 are 1.921 billion yuan (including tax), of which 85% are from the power battery industry. We judge that the number of orders signed in the whole year exceeds 3.5 billion yuan, and the company's revenue is expected to continue to grow rapidly in 2022.
The sharp increase in the number of employees affects the current expense rate, and the net profit in 2021 is slightly lower than the market expectation
In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 91 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 35.95%. The growth rate was lower than that of the revenue end. The profit level decreased to a certain extent compared with that in 2020, slightly lower than the market expectation. Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was 35 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 35.83%, which was the main reason why the performance in 2021 was lower than the expectation. Further analysis shows that the company actively responded to customer demand and expanded its production and operation scale. The number of employees increased significantly during the reporting period in 2021. We expect that the company will have about 4000 employees by the end of 2021, an increase of more than 100% over the same period in 2020, higher than the growth rate of revenue. The year-on-year increase of 2021q4 expense rate has significantly affected the profitability of the current period. Considering the decrease of expense rate during the period caused by the advance of expenses and the increase of per capita output value, we judge that the profit margin of the company is expected to increase significantly in 2022.
The company has benefited from the expansion of power battery production for a long time, and the horizontal expansion opens up room for growth
Benefiting from the wave of power battery production expansion, the company's relevant business income will enter a period of rapid growth. This will expand to the fields of automobile and consumer electronics, and further open the company's growth space: ① we predict that the global power battery laser welding equipment market will reach 25.7 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 53.4% from 2020 to 2025. The company deeply binds Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , and develops second and third tier customers, which will fully benefit from the large-scale expansion of downstream production; ② The development trend of automobile towards light weight and intelligence appears, and the advantages of laser welding technology will become increasingly prominent. Relying on the technology and customer resources accumulated in the field of power battery, the company has a certain first mover advantage; ③ Driven by 5g, laser processing is in a golden rising period in the consumer electronics industry. At present, the company has a small business scale and relatively limited customer resources. It is actively carrying out R & D layout, and there is a large growth space in the follow-up.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the order demand brought by the continuous expansion of power batteries, we adjusted the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 to 0.30 yuan, 1.09 yuan (up 9.00%) and 2.05 yuan (up 38.29%) respectively. The current share price corresponds to 116, 32 and 17 times of PE. As the leader of laser welding equipment in China, the company will fully benefit from the expansion of power battery production and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: high dependence on power batteries, business risks of head customers, sharp decline in profitability, large balance of accounts receivable and bad debts, technological upgrading and new product development progress are less than expected.
