Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) (600188)
1、 Event overview
On December 1, 2021, the company disclosed the draft of the 2021 A-share restricted stock incentive plan, which plans to grant 62.98 million restricted shares to the incentive objects, accounting for about 1.29% of the total share capital of the company on the plan announcement date. The stock source is the A-share common shares issued by the company to the incentive objects; The grant price is 11.72 yuan / share; There are 1268 incentive objects in total.
2、 Analysis and judgment
Equity incentive improves the enthusiasm of the core team and is conducive to the long-term and healthy development of the company
This equity incentive plan of the company is the second equity incentive since 2018, The personnel involved include directors (excluding external directors), senior managers, middle managers and core backbone personnel. The equity incentive plan helps to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of the company’s management team and key employees, closely combine the interests of shareholders, the company and the personal interests of the core team, and improve the company’s market competitiveness and sustainable development ability.
The performance assessment of exercise conditions shows the company’s confidence in future development
The draft proposes that the exercise conditions of equity incentive include: Taking the average net profit in 2020 as the base, the net profit growth rate from 2022 to 2024 shall not be less than 20%, 30% and 40% respectively, the earnings per share shall not be less than 1.60 yuan / share, 1.74 yuan / share and 1.87 yuan / share respectively, and the net profit growth rate and earnings per share shall not be lower than the average level of the same industry. According to the above EPS, based on the current share capital, the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 is RMB 7.798 billion, RMB 8.481 billion and RMB 9.114 billion respectively, and the corresponding PE is 14.83 times, 13.63 times and 12.68 times respectively (closing price on December 1).
The coal and chemical business is fully strengthened, and the performance elasticity of the company is expected to continue to release
Since the fourth quarter, the coal price has remained high. According to wind data, up to now, the average market price of Qinhuangdao Power Coal in the fourth quarter has increased by 34.3% month on month, 135.88% year-on-year. In terms of chemicals, the price of acetic acid in the fourth quarter has increased by 112.85% year-on-year and 12.82% month on month. The rise in the price of coal and chemicals is expected to drive the release of the company’s performance.
3、 Investment advice
With the continuous rise of coal prices at home and abroad, the company’s performance elasticity is expected to continue to release. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 19.685 billion yuan, 20.085 billion yuan and 20.446 billion yuan, equivalent to EPS of 4.04/4.12/4.19 respectively, corresponding to pe5.5 billion yuan 87 times, 5.76 times and 5.65 times, with low valuation in the industry. The company gradually focused on its main business, stripped off non coal trade assets, expected to improve its valuation, and gave a “recommended” rating for the first time.
4、 Risk tips:
1) Macroeconomic growth slowed down and coal prices fell sharply; 2) New capacity release exceeded expectations; 3) The price of coal chemical products fell sharply.
