Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) (688408)
1、 Event overview
According to pvinfolink data, at the end of November 2021, the prices of photovoltaic silicon wafers, cells, modules and other links began to loosen to varying degrees. At present, the average price of 166 single glass is about 2-2.02 yuan per watt, and the average price of 500W + single glass modules is about 2.04-2.05 yuan per watt. However, due to inventory pressure, some products were sold in advance in mid November, The relative average price of some actual delivery prices still has a gap of 1-3 cents per watt, with a decrease of about 1.4%.
2、 Analysis and judgment
Constraints fade
Previously, three factors restricting the tracking support industry were the delay of ground projects caused by component prices, and the fluctuation of shipping prices and bulk material prices. In the fourth quarter, the number of large-scale ground power station projects started outside China has increased significantly month on month, the sea transportation prices in some regions have eased, the top of steel prices has fallen, the industry has entered the bottom reversal stage, and the company is expected to usher in a new round of high growth, superimposed on the demand for the extension of scenery base and projects outside China next year.
Continue to reduce the cost, and the market share is expected to accelerate the improvement
In terms of production capacity, 3gw plant in India is expected to be put into operation early next year, mainly for the Indian and American markets; In terms of technology and cost, the company launched Tianji 2 single row multi-point drive series products, reducing the cost by more than 5% on the original basis. The 30 ton galvanizing capacity was put into operation in the fourth quarter, helping the enterprise reduce the cost by more than 2%; The wind tunnel laboratory is about to be completed and put into use. The above will continue to consolidate the advantages of enterprises in front-end design and vertical integrated management.
Breakthroughs in multiple markets and fields
At present, on the basis of consolidating the advantageous markets such as the Middle East and Asia Pacific, the company continues to make efforts in the three major markets of China, America and Europe. Since this year, the company has deeply explored the opportunities in the U.S. market with the help of the high cost of other leading manufacturers. At present, it has obtained more than 150MW orders. At the same time, the Middle East, Asia Pacific and other markets have also continued to obtain large orders. In the field of strategic project BIPV, on the basis of obtaining roof orders for industrial and commercial projects, the company successively won the bid for photovoltaic shed projects in the automotive industry, and achieved in-depth cooperation with Mercedes Benz, Dongfeng, BMW, Kia and other auto enterprises. It is expected that the installed capacity of BIPV project will nearly double.
3、 Investment advice
We expect that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 3.605/71.17/10.477 billion respectively, and the revenue growth rate will be 15%, 97% and 47% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 146 / 663 / 1037 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of – 49%, 354% and 56% respectively. With reference to the 71 times PE level of ZX photovoltaic equipment sector (TTM and wind have consistent profit expectations), the company’s performance is expected to reverse at the bottom, cover for the first time and give a “recommended” rating.
4、 Risk tips:
Lower downstream demand than expected risk; Trade friction risk; Raw material price fluctuation risk.
