Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (600309)
Key investment points:
The next wave of competitive advantage in the chemical industry lies in the bonus of engineers. Wanhua is a rare example in China where technological innovation drives the development of companies. Based on excellent culture, the company has created two moats of high technology and low cost through technological innovation and excellent operation. Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) is stepping into the ranks of global chemical giants with the pace of periodic growth stocks.
In the short term, the fundamental factor affecting Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) is the prosperity of the product. From the characterization index, the price difference is the core factor affecting the short-term profit. The product system of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) is becoming larger and larger. In order to better represent the prosperity of the company, we take the product system of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) as a whole, model the difference between revenue and raw materials according to the existing product system, trace the price difference between revenue and raw materials in history under the existing product system, and define the price difference as Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) price difference index, To judge the prosperity position of the company. In the long run, the fundamental factor affecting Wanhua is its future growth. Landmark products that can prove the company’s ability to continuously evolve are very important. If an excellent company can succeed on different tracks, it will prove that it has the ability of continuous evolution and will be able to grow continuously. Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) has proved itself on the MDI track. The projects that the company may land in the future are the direction of the company’s future development and the space for the company’s continuous evolution.
Progress of key projects
On November 22, 2021, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (Sichuan) Co., Ltd. announced the environmental impact assessment of 80000 T / a NMP project for the first time. The company plans to build a 80000 T / a NMP project in Meishan high tech Industrial Park, Sichuan Province.
On November 5, 2021, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (Fujian) Co., Ltd. accepted and publicized the environmental impact report of the 1.08 million T / a Aniline Project (three 360000 T / a nitric acid plants, three 480000 T / a nitrobenzene plants and three 360000 T / a aniline plants were built before and after three phases, including 1.6 million T MDI expansion project and 360000 t TDI expansion project).
On November 25, 2021, the environmental impact report of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) Co., Ltd. with an annual output of 50000 tons of trimethylolpropane project was publicized before approval.
On November 25, 2021, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) Co., Ltd. publicized the environmental impact report of 60000 T / a neopentyl glycol project before approval.
On November 29, 2021, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (Fujian) large-scale coal gasification effective gas comprehensive utilization – annual output of 480000 tons of formaldehyde project environmental impact assessment documents were accepted and publicized.
According to incomplete statistics, according to the average price in 2021, if all the existing planned projects are put into operation as scheduled, it is expected that the new revenue will be 29.2 billion yuan in 2022 and 61.1 billion yuan in 2023. After all the projects are put into operation, the new revenue will be 144.5 billion yuan, creating another Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) .
MDI price spread
In November 2021, the average price of aggregate MDI was 19295 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of -8.69% and a month on month increase of -14.86%; The average price of pure MDI was 23055 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of -20.99% and a month on month increase of -0.24%. On December 2, the price of aggregate MDI was 18300 yuan / ton, and the price of pure MDI was 21750 yuan / ton. In November 2021, the average price difference between polymerized MDI and coal and pure benzene was 13116 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year ratio of – 25.77% and a month on month ratio of – 10.16%; The average price difference of pure MDI was 16876 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of – 34.38% and a month on month increase of + 12.15%. On December 2, the price difference between polymerized MDI and coal and pure benzene was 12617 yuan / ton, and the price difference of pure MDI was 16067 yuan / ton.
The Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) spread index is in the historical 40% quantile
As of December 2, 2021, Q4 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) spread index in 2021 was 102.64, 2.56 lower than Q3 in 2021; It is in the historical quantile of 40.21%, 3.05 percentage points lower than Q3 in 2021. Among them, the price difference index of Q4 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) polyurethane plate in 2021 was 116.93, an increase of 4.47 compared with Q3 in 2021; It is in the historical quantile of 32.83%, an increase of 3.10 percentage points over Q3 in 2021. In 2021, the price spread index of Q4 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) Petrochemical plate was 94.31, a decrease of 14.06 compared with Q3 in 2021; It is in the historical quantile of 50.79%, 25.08 percentage points lower than Q3 in 2021. In 2021, the price spread index of Q4 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) new materials sector was 65.80, an increase of 3.85 compared with Q3 in 2021; It is in the historical quantile of 37.80%, an increase of 6.47 percentage points over Q3 in 2021.
In October, the output of refrigerators and freezers downstream of the company was basically flat month on month, the output of cars increased month on month, and although the new construction of real estate decreased, Premier Li Keqiang and the CBRC have recently issued relevant policies and ideas.
From January to October 2021, China produced 74.26 million household refrigerators, a year-on-year increase of + 0.4%; The export volume was 60.07 million units, a year-on-year increase of + 7.3%. From January to September 2021, China produced 29.47 million freezers, a year-on-year increase of + 15.1%; The export volume was 18.89 million units, a year-on-year increase of + 12.9%. Among them, in October 2021, China produced 7.637 million household refrigerators, with a year-on-year increase of – 13.5% and a month on month increase of – 0.01%; The export volume was 5.92 million units, with a year-on-year increase of – 8.5% and a month on month increase of – 1.2%. In September 2021, China produced 3.016 million freezers, a year-on-year increase of – 17.9% and a month on month increase of + 0.5%; The export volume was 1.856 million units, with a year-on-year increase of – 24.9% and a month on month increase of – 5.8%. From January to October 2021, China’s automobile output was 20.57 million, a year-on-year increase of + 5.6%; In October 2021, China’s automobile output was 2.33 million, a year-on-year increase of – 8.8% and a month on month increase of + 12.2%.
From January to October 2021, the new construction area of houses was 1.667 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 7.7%; In October 2021, the new construction area of houses was 138 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of – 33.1% and a month on month increase of – 20.9%. From January to October 2021, the cumulative construction area of houses was 9.429 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of + 7.1%.
Cbcirc: at this stage, we should focus on meeting the mortgage needs of the first house and improved housing, and reasonably issue real estate development loans. Financial Associated Press, Dec. 3 – a spokesman for the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said that it is understood that local governments and departments such as Guangdong Province are guiding and urging Evergrande group and its affiliated enterprises to resolve risks in a stable and orderly manner in accordance with laws and regulations, actively promote the resumption of work and production of the project, complete the delivery of buildings, and financial institutions such as banks and insurance are also actively participating in relevant work. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission will conscientiously implement relevant national policies and guide banking and insurance institutions to provide financial services to the real estate and construction industries on the premise of implementing the prudent management of real estate finance. At this stage, we should focus on meeting the mortgage needs of the first house and improved housing according to different local conditions, reasonably issue real estate development loans and M & A loans, increase support for affordable rental housing, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate industry and market. Premier Li Keqiang: China will formulate policies around the needs of market players and reduce the reserve requirement in due time. Financial news agency, December 3 (Xinhua) — Premier Li Keqiang met with Georgieva, President of the International Monetary Fund, on the afternoon of December 3 in Ziguangge, Zhongnanhai. Li Keqiang briefly introduced China’s economic situation and pointed out that China will continue to coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, implement stable macro policies and strengthen pertinence and effectiveness. We will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, formulate policies around the needs of market players, use a variety of monetary tools, timely reduce reserve requirements, increase support for the real economy, especially small, medium and micro enterprises, promote a steady decline in comprehensive financing costs, and ensure the stable and healthy operation of the economy.
Profit forecast and investment rating
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 25.713 billion, 26.634 billion and 28.528 billion respectively, corresponding to PE of 11.6, 11.2 and 10.5 respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips:
Economic downturn; The project construction is not as expected; The market fluctuates greatly; New products are not as expected; Environmental protection and safety production; Intensified competition in the same industry; Product prices fell sharply; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
