Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (601689)
Event: the company issued an explanatory announcement on the company’s products involved in the customer recall event.
Core view
The scope of defective products is limited, and the recall is not expected to have a significant impact on performance and business. According to the announcement, Tesla plans to recall model y826 vehicles in the United States, with an estimated defect ratio of 1%; It is planned to recall modely21599 vehicles in China. The reason for the recall is that the steering knuckle strength of the company’s supporting vehicles may not meet the requirements, resulting in potential safety hazards for some vehicles. Automobile recall is a normal phenomenon in the industry. The defect probability of this batch of products is about 0.2% – 1.0%. It is expected that the number of defective vehicles in all recalled vehicles is small. At the same time, the recalled products are only equipped with modely models, and do not involve other Tesla models or other customer models. It is estimated according to the recall number and defect ratio, It is expected that the recall will not have a significant impact on the company’s performance and business.
The company responds quickly and effectively reduces adverse effects, which is expected to ensure a stable cooperative relationship with customers. After the incident, the company actively responded. At present, the rectification and improvement of the heat treatment production line have been completed, and the hardness of the products has been tested by 200%; 132 testing instruments are provided for Tesla to better identify and replace risk components; At the same time, the company has established a problem handling and response committee to respond to needs 24 hours a day. The company’s products cover a wide range and can provide customers with one-stop, system level and modular products and services. It is scarce in the field of auto parts. The company has the ability to respond quickly to sudden risks. At present, it is actively strengthening communication and consultation with customers. It is expected that the effectiveness of a number of response measures will effectively reduce the adverse impact of recall, Ensure long-term and stable cooperative relationship with customers.
Tier0. The level 5 cooperation model is widely recognized, and new products and new orders lay a solid foundation for performance growth. Tier0.0 implemented by the company The level 5 business model has been recognized by many automobile enterprises. It has many supporting products and high amount. It has cooperated with rivian, Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideal and other new energy automobile enterprises, and the value of supporting bicycles for rivian is up to 11000 yuan. The company actively promotes the “2 + 3” industrial layout, supplies lightweight chassis in batches for Ford and rivian, and cooperates with Chongqing Jinkang on key models; In terms of thermal management, relying on the technology accumulation in the research and development of intelligent braking system, the company has successfully developed integrated heat pump assembly, electronic expansion valve, electronic water valve and other products, quickly introduced them to the market, and began to cooperate with Huawei on products related to thermal management system; The intelligent braking and steering system is stepping up verification and matching. The company accelerated production capacity layout, set up new factories in Shanghai, Huzhou, Xi’an and other places, and accelerated the construction of factories in Poland and Mexico. There were many new orders in the first half of the year. It is expected that with the gradual release of production capacity, new products and new orders will effectively ensure the growth of performance.
Financial forecast and investment suggestions: it is predicted that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.07, 1.50 and 1.90 yuan respectively. Due to the impact of chip supply, the 21-year profit will be evaluated according to the 22-year PE valuation. The 22-year PE average valuation of comparable parts related companies will be 45 times, and the 22-year 45 times valuation will be given, with the target price of 67.5 yuan, maintaining the purchase rating.
Risk tip: NVH orders are lower than expected, Tesla car sales are lower than expected, the supporting quantity of lightweight chassis products is lower than expected, and the decline of product price is higher than expected.
