Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
Event: on December 7, the company released its sales volume in November. This month, the company sold 224100 vehicles, with a month on month increase of 16.22% and a year-on-year increase of 2.98%.
In November, the batch sales of ea'an exceeded 15000, and the monthly orders exceeded 24000. In November, the wholesale sales volume of ea'an was 15035, with a month on month and year-on-year growth of 24.41% and 109.11% respectively. The wholesale sales volume exceeded 15000 for the first time; In November, the terminal sales volume was 14566, with a year-on-year increase of 123%. The cumulative terminal sales volume from January to November exceeded 100000. By the end of November, aions, aiony and aionv had launched modified models, with significantly improved product power and strong demand for ai'an. According to the company's official wechat, at present, the monthly order of ai'an is maintained at more than 24000. According to autohome, aionlxplus is expected to be officially launched in January 2022. The new car has a comprehensive driving range of 1008km and is equipped with three lidars. The product power is greatly improved compared with the old model, which is expected to contribute new increment to ai'an.
The sales volume of shadow leopard has exceeded 10000 for two consecutive months, and the sales volume of trumpchi has reached a new high. In November, GAC motor sold 35572 vehicles, up 0.74% month on month and 6.56% year on year respectively, reaching a new high. We predict that the main reasons are as follows: 1) the orders of new car shadow leopard continue to release, and the sales volume of 10052 vehicles this month has exceeded 10000 for two consecutive months; 2) The best-selling models GS4 and MPV (trumpchi M8 and trumpchi M6) contributed to the main sales. According to e-car.com, the orders of the new second-generation gs8 exceeded 10000 in the first month since the pre-sale, of which the hybrid version equipped with Toyota's new th system accounted for more than 50%. With the continuous release of shadow leopard orders, trumpchi's sales are expected to continue to grow.
The joint venture was better month on month, and the year-on-year growth rate of Guangfeng became positive. In November, Guangfeng sold 85000 vehicles in batches, with month on month and year-on-year growth of 39.34% and 9.82% respectively, ending the year-on-year negative growth for three consecutive months. We predict that the main reason for the significant increase in sales volume of Guangfeng is that the pressure of chip shortage is relieved, and leiling and willanda increase 17595 and 9805 respectively month on month. According to the company's official wechat, Camry sold 25341 vehicles this month, more than 25000 vehicles for two consecutive months, of which more than 200000 versions accounted for 60%; The sales volume of the new hanlanda this month is 10385, and the cumulative orders exceed 52000, which is expected to be released continuously in the follow-up. In November, guangben sold 77709 vehicles in batches, with a month on month increase of 3.04%, and the terminal sales volume was 69134, of which the sales volume of accord and Binzhi were 25049 and 17875 respectively, which is also the main reason for the month on month growth of guangben's sales volume. In the future, with the listing of guangben's "civic sister car" intergra model and Electric Vehicle E: NP1, Guangfeng Saina Sienna, fenglanda and Weisa, the sales volume of the joint venture is expected to continue to grow high.
Heavy new car + multi-point layout of ea'an, the company can be expected in the future. On the one hand, GAC motor, ea'an, Guangfeng and guangben have successively launched a number of heavy new cars to contribute to the sales increase; On the other hand, the mixed reform of Ethiopia and Angola was promoted as scheduled, and the production capacity and power cells were actively distributed. On November 29, the company announced that it would restructure the assets of GAC EA. After the reorganization, the registered capital of EA will increase from 1.419 billion yuan to 6 billion yuan, which is conducive to the formation of market-oriented independent operation ability and further enhance its competitiveness. In terms of capacity and cell, 1) according to the company's official wechat, at present, the capacity of EA is tight, and the capacity utilization rate exceeds 130%. It is expected that the capacity will increase to 200000 in February 2022 and 400000 in 2023; 2) Ai'an plans to invest 336 million yuan to quickly build a medium-sized production line of self-developed battery cells. Based on the planning of new cars, systems, production capacity and batteries, the company can be expected in the future.
Investment suggestion: in 2021, the sales volume of GAC ea'an is expected to increase significantly, GAC motor is expected to usher in the bottom reversal, and the listing of heavy models of joint venture brands is expected to bring significant performance flexibility to GAC. We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 6.84 billion, RMB 9.81 billion and RMB 13.6 billion respectively, corresponding to the current market value, PE will be 27.0, 18.8 and 13.6 times respectively, maintain the "Buy-A" rating, and the six-month target price will be RMB 27.90/share.
Risk tip: the shortage of chips in the automotive industry is increasing; Risk that the independent sales volume is lower than expected; Risk of uncontrolled epidemic.
