Shenzhen Topband Co.Ltd(002139) (002139)
Event: on December 8, the company announced that it plans to establish a new company in Nantong to invest in the construction of lithium battery project with its own funds or self raised funds for the construction of square aluminum shell cells, soft pack cells, large cylindrical cells and battery pack production lines.
The total investment is expected to be 5 billion yuan, and the total design capacity of the project is 6gwh for cell and 4gwh for pack battery pack. According to the company's announcement, the project is implemented in three phases. The total investment in phase I is 1.6 billion yuan to produce 2gwh cells and 1GWh battery packs; The total investment in phase II is 1.7 billion yuan, adding 2gwh cells and 1.5gwh battery packs; The total investment of phase III is 1.7 billion yuan, and 2gwh cells and 1.5gwh battery packs are added. The first phase is put into operation in two stages. The first phase is put into operation with 1.3gwh of power cells, with a total investment of 750 million yuan, including 280 million yuan of equipment investment; In the second stage, 0.7gwh of cell and 1GWh of pack battery pack are added.
The demand for communication energy storage and household energy storage has accelerated, and the second-order leading inflection point of prosperity has arrived. In the field of communication energy storage, the supporting 5g base stations and the lead-acid substitution of 4G stock base stations bring huge communication energy storage demand. Starting point lithium electric big data predicts that the demand for backup batteries of 5g base stations newly built and reconstructed in China will exceed 50gwh in 2025. In the field of household energy storage, on July 29, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on further improving the time of use electricity price mechanism, requiring that where the maximum system peak valley difference rate is expected to exceed 40% in the previous year or that year, the peak valley electricity price difference shall not be less than 4:1 in principle; In principle, it shall not be less than 3:1 in other places. In addition, a peak electricity price mechanism shall be established, and the peak electricity price shall rise by no less than 20% on the basis of peak electricity price. The increase of peak valley power difference will greatly improve the energy storage economy and accelerate the development of user side energy storage market. We believe that with the substantial improvement of the economy of the energy storage market, the energy storage market has completed the transformation from policy subsidy driven to market-oriented competition driven, and the second-order leading inflection point of downstream prosperity has reached.
The expansion of production complies with the outbreak of downstream demand, and the lithium battery business is expected to become the third pole of the company's growth momentum. The company focuses on the special lithium battery market, takes "energy storage + small power" as the main development direction, and mainly provides energy storage for communication base stations, home energy storage and other fields, including battery cells Battery management system (BMS), battery pack and other products and system solutions. In the first half of 2021, the company's lithium battery business revenue was 427 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54%, and CAGR 90% in three years, with continuous high growth in performance. On December 8, the company announced that it had won the "centralized bidding project for 2021 lithium iron phosphate battery products for standby power of China Tower Co., Ltd." , the winning share is 17%, and the winning amount is 241.4 million yuan. The company's lithium battery products further open the communication key customer market. With the rapid growth of communication energy storage and household energy storage demand, we believe that the lithium battery expansion project is expected to be the third pole of the company's growth momentum after household appliances and electric tools.
Investment suggestion: the company deeply cultivates the special lithium battery market. The expansion of lithium battery production conforms to the rapid development of energy storage market and is expected to become the third pole of growth momentum of the company. We expect the company's operating revenue to be RMB 7.29/97.9/12.93 billion and net profit to be RMB 682/11/1.505 billion from 2021 to 2023. Considering the rapid growth of lithium battery business income brought by the improvement of prosperity and expansion of energy storage industry, the company will be given 35 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the target market value of RMB 38.5 billion and the target price of RMB 31.09. It will be covered for the first time and given the "Buy-A" investment rating.
Risk tip: there is a risk that the investment agreement will not take effect, the production expansion process is lower than expected, and the competition in the lithium battery industry is intensified
