Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) (600104)
Core view
The sales volume of Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) November was in line with expectations, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached a new high. Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) in November, the overall sales volume was 601400, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6% and a month on month increase of 3.3%, The overall structure is better (SAIC GM Wuling sold 193000 vehicles in November, a month on month decrease of 3.5%, affecting the month on month growth of Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) overall sales); the cumulative sales from January to November were 4802500 vehicles, a slight decrease of 1.1% compared with that in 2020. Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) In November, the sales volume of 82300 new energy vehicles hit a new record, with a year-on-year increase of 45.6% and a month on month increase of 6.9%. According to the passenger Federation, in November, the wholesale sales of narrow passenger cars fell by 5% year-on-year, and the overall sales growth rate of Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) was slightly lower than the industry average.
The sales volume of SAIC Volkswagen rebounded month on month, and the sales volume of ID. family continued to grow rapidly. SAIC Volkswagen sold 135000 vehicles in November, down 16.5% year-on-year and up 12.5% month on month. From January to November, the cumulative sales volume was 1105400 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 18.0%. In November, the total delivery volume of Volkswagen ID. family reached 14200, an increase of 11.2% month on month, maintaining a high growth rate month on month. SAIC Volkswagen ID. series sold more than 8000 vehicles in November. Driven by ID. series, SAIC Volkswagen New Energy sold nearly 12000 vehicles in November, a year-on-year increase of 205.5%. In November, the MPV model based on mqbevo digital architecture was unveiled at Guangzhou auto show, and the subsequent models such as xinlingdu will be listed in 2022. It is expected that the shortage of chips will gradually ease, and the growth of ID. family sales and the listing of new models are expected to promote the continuous improvement of SAIC Volkswagen sales.
SAIC GM’s sales volume improved month on month. SAIC GM sold 137000 vehicles in November, a year-on-year decrease of 17.5% and a month on month increase of 3.8%. From January to November, the cumulative sales volume was 1170900 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. In November, the first pure electric SUV model of Cadillac, lyriq, was unveiled at Guangzhou auto show. Lyriq is the first product of ultium electric vehicle platform in the Chinese market. CLTC has a range of more than 650km. It is expected to be launched in 2022 and is expected to become the fulcrum of SAIC GM’s new volume.
SAIC’s own brand sales maintained a year-on-year growth. SAIC’s own brand sold 100100 vehicles in November, with a year-on-year increase of 24.0%, which was basically the same as that in October, and the sales growth beat the industry average. From January to November, the cumulative sales volume was 695500, with a year-on-year increase of 25.5%. In November, SAIC sold 15000 independent new energy vehicles, with a cumulative sales of 143000 vehicles from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 159%. In November, the sales volume of Rongwei rx5 series, Rongwei i5, mgzs, MG5 and other key models remained above 10000. In terms of new cars, the pre-sale of Roewe rx5max and rx5emax was launched in November. The first “smart tide technology SUV” mgone of Mg brand was officially launched on December 2. The number of orders for pre-sale for 7 days has exceeded 3000. With the improvement of chip supply month by month, the sales volume of SAIC’s independent brands is expected to maintain rapid growth.
Financial forecast and investment suggestions: it is predicted that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.41, 2.69 and 2.97 yuan, and the chip will affect the profit. According to the 22-year PE valuation and referring to the average valuation level of comparable companies, the PE valuation will be 11 times in 2022, the target price will be 29.59 yuan, and the buy rating will be maintained.
Risk tip: the sales of independent passenger cars are lower than expected, and the sales of SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC GM are lower than expected.
