Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) (000625)
Core view
The overall sales volume of Chang’an decreased slightly. Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) in November, the overall sales volume was 188000, down 14.35% year-on-year and 7.05% month on month. Affected by chip supply, the overall sales volume of Chang’an in November decreased slightly month on month; In the first November, a total of 2.2125 million vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 17.72%. According to the passenger Federation, in November, the wholesale sales of narrow passenger cars fell by 5.1% year-on-year, and the overall sales growth of Chang’an was lower than the industry average.
Changan’s independent sales fell slightly, and uni-v, avita 11 and other models are expected to help the independent brands improve. In November, the sales volume of Changan’s own brand was 96900, a year-on-year decrease of 17.79% and a month on month decrease of 10.26%; In the first November, the cumulative sales volume was 1188800, with a year-on-year increase of 26.44%. The first car of uni family, uni-v, was officially unveiled on November 21. Uni-v was built based on the ark architecture and equipped with blue whale ne1 5T engine adopts unique designs such as borderless front face, through tail lamp and lifting tail wing to enhance the sense of hierarchy, which is expected to become a new growth point of uni family. On November 15, avita technology held a brand press conference in Shanghai, and its first SUV model, avita 11, made its debut. Avita 11 is equipped with Huawei’s full stack hi intelligent vehicle solution and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) the latest power battery technology to achieve excellent performance such as 700km + endurance, 400tops intelligent driving computing power, 100 km acceleration in 4S, 200kW high-voltage super fast charging, and has strong competitiveness at the automatic driving end. It is expected that uni-v and avita 11 will be officially listed in 2022. After listing, it is expected to help Chang’an’s independent brand accelerate its transformation and upgrade.
The sales volume of Changfu and Changma maintained year-on-year growth. Changan Ford sold 28900 vehicles in November, a slight increase of 0.72% year-on-year and a decrease of 2.22% month on month; Changfu sold 267800 vehicles in the first November, a year-on-year increase of 20.54%. Changan Mazda sold 14700 vehicles in November, with a year-on-year increase of 9.07% and a month on month decrease of 16.83%; Changma sold 125500 vehicles in November, a slight increase of 1.72% year-on-year. In terms of new cars, EVOS, a new generation of Changfu intelligent SUV, was officially launched at Guangzhou auto show in November. EVOS is built based on Changfu’s new generation FNV intelligent Internet architecture and is expected to become a new growth point; In the first quarter of 2022, Changfu and Changma will successively launch new Mondeo, new cx-5 and other new models. It is expected that the chip supply will gradually improve in 2022, and the sales of Changfu and Changma are expected to maintain a growth trend.
Financial forecast and investment suggestions: forecast eps0 from 2021 to 2023 61, 0.70 and 0.82 yuan, and the average pb3.5 yuan of comparable companies in 21 years About 44 times, giving the company 21 years of PB3 44 times valuation, net assets per share of 7.69 yuan in 21 years, target price of 26.45 yuan, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tip: Changan Ford’s sales volume is lower than expected, Changan Mazda’s sales volume is lower than expected, and Changan’s own brand sales volume is lower than expected.
