Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
1、 Event overview
On December 7, 2021, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) released the production and sales express in November. In November, the automobile sales volume was 224100, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.98% / month on month increase of + 16.22%.
2、 Analysis and judgment
GAC “Gemini” has a strong momentum, and ea’an new energy continues to be popular
In November, GAC motor sold 35600 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 6.56% / month on month increase of + 0.74%, including 10052 shadow leopard vehicles, with sales exceeding 10000 for two consecutive months. In November, GAC ea’an sold 15000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 109.11% / month on month increase of + 24.41%, and the sales exceeded 10000 for seven consecutive months; From January to November, the cumulative sales volume was 106000, a year-on-year increase of + 102.3%. In terms of new cars, the new second-generation gs8 equipped with th hybrid is planned to be launched in December. Aionlxplus with 1000 + km super endurance is expected to be launched early next year. With the introduction of independent high-end models and intelligent upgrading, GAC is expected to usher in a new situation of simultaneous increase in volume and price.
The production and sales of Liangtian are improved month on month, and the superposition of capacity + product cycle is expected to thicken the profit
The production and sales of Liangtian improved significantly month on month, and the chip shortage was gradually alleviated. In November, GAC Honda produced 87600 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.90% / month on month increase of + 18.31%, and sold 77700 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 9.97% / month on month increase of + 3.04%, of which the key models accord / Binzhi contributed 25000 / 18000 vehicles respectively; In November, GAC Toyota produced 84800 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.36% / month on month increase of + 38.41%, and sold 85000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.82% / month on month increase of + 39.34%, of which the key models leiling series / willanda series contributed 229 / 18000 vehicles respectively, with a month on month increase of 1.8/10000 vehicles respectively. The launch of new cars such as follow-up model, e: NP1, Saina and fenglanda will start a strong product cycle. At the same time, the production capacity will be put into place quickly next year, the production and marketing sides will work together, and the joint venture profit is expected to be thickened.
Ai’an mixed reform accelerates, and the autonomous “Gemini” shines
Under the big director system, GAC motor has a clear path to build hot selling models, and the GPMA modular platform and the ths + GMC hybrid route help improve GAC motor’s competitiveness. Ai’an’s restructuring is enabled by both capital and technology, and the integration of “production, marketing and research” strengthens its comprehensive competitiveness, which is expected to boost the company’s valuation. According to the company’s guidelines, the production capacity of ea’an is expected to reach 200000 / 400000 vehicles in 2022 / 2023. The independent cell production line is expected to be completed and mass produced by the end of 2022. The battery and electric drive industry chain can be controlled independently to provide core competitiveness. The strong rise of independent “Gemini” has driven the company’s profitability to continue to rise, and the valuation system is expected to be reconstructed.
3、 Investment advice
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 6.234/89.41/10.933 billion respectively, corresponding to 28 / 20 / 16 times of the current share price PE respectively. The chip shortage is expected to improve marginally next year, the supply and demand sides resonate and rebound, and GAC’s sales volume is expected to continue to improve and maintain the “recommended” rating.
4、 Risk tips
Fluctuations in raw material prices and chip supply; New product expansion is less than expected; The recovery of passenger car market was less than expected.
