[one week strategy of the top ten securities companies] the bottom line of the A-share market will not be broken. The unexpected impact will bring good opportunities for configuration, and a new round of market will be launched.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the bottom line of the A-share market will not be broken, and the unexpected impact will bring good allocation opportunities
On August 23, the Sino US tariff list was overweight again, breaking the expected bottom of the Sino US differences formed in the previous market. Market sentiment is suppressed in the short term, but the fluctuation of A-Shares is supported by the bottom line, and the market bottom will not break. From the perspective of equity pledge risk prevention, the latest test shows that 2800 points of Shanghai composite index is still the early warning line, and 2700 ~ 2800 is the bottom line range.
The expectation of European and American central banks to cut interest rates in September will be more and more clear, open China's loose space and further sit at the inflection point of global liquidity. According to the judgment of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , the pressure of RMB devaluation is controllable. Under the counter cyclical hedging of China's currency and finance, the overall profit growth of A-Shares is resilient, and it is still expected to maintain single digit growth in 2020.
unexpected impact brings good allocation opportunities. Pay attention to the allocation value of undervalued varieties under the expectation of loose liquidity.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : the market continues to tamp the bottom
① The escalation of Sino US trade friction once again affects the short-term sentiment of the market. The medium-term trend of the market is determined by the fundamentals, and the adjustment of the Shanghai Composite Index since 3288 points has remained unchanged in the later stage.
② The short-term market continues to tamp the bottom. At present, it is still the layout period for preparing for the second wave of bull market rise. Tracking the response measures of Chinese policies, corporate profits are expected to bottom in the third quarter year-on-year.
③ Focusing on the medium term, the market structure is expected to change gradually, and the technology and securities companies with steeper profit recovery will have greater flexibility in the future, with core assets as the basic allocation.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: the overall valuation is low, which is the best strategic allocation period
On August 23, after China announced countermeasures, on August 24, the United States announced that it would increase the tax rate of tariffs on about US $550 billion of Chinese goods exported to the United States. Sino US trade issues have escalated again. Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities believes that short-term event exogenous variables impact the market, but it is suggested to look at the significance of strategic allocation after the impact in the medium-term dimension.
In the medium-term dimension, facing the economic downturn, why can profits rise? First, the competitive advantage of listed companies drives the market rate to increase to counter the downward economic cycle. Second, leverage is added to amplify the profit effect.
How big is the impact of trade issues on profitability? Without considering the hedging policy, trade upgrading will affect the short-term profit, but will not affect the profit recovery trend; Considering the hedging policy, even if all 505 billion yuan are subject to a 25% tariff, the probability of q4gdp breaking 6 is still low, the government has more room to increase leverage, and it is not difficult to give "sufficient" backing.
If the profit goes up, is the current valuation expensive? Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities believes that considering the upward profit, although the current valuation is layered, the overall valuation is low, which provides strong support for the excellent strategic allocation period.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities: the market passivates the Sino US trade conflict, short with gold, long with technology and consumption
in the medium and long term, China's stock market is in the most difficult time, which is the beginning of a long-term bull market. In the short term, the market will passivate the Sino US trade conflict, and the short-term disturbance time will be shortened and the range will be smaller.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities suggest that investors grasp the medium-term and long-term market trend and do not have to be overly pessimistic about trade conflicts. In the short term, we focus on the import substitution opportunities brought by the Sino US trade conflict, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , chemical and automotive products are good in the short term, and the safe haven value of gold is also highlighted. In the medium and long term, core technology and consumption will become long-term opportunities for the Chinese market. Investors are advised to stick to it.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : optimistic about the sustainability of the market
The Sino US trade situation rose again on Friday, which increased the uncertainty of A-share risk appetite in the short term. However, from the perspective of monetary expectation, credit expectation and regulatory environment, the core logic of mini Q1 is disturbed rather than destroyed, which is optimistic about the sustainability of the market.
Among them, from the perspective of monetary easing expectations, the direct fuse that ignited the risk-on of risk assets in January was the marginal easing of the Fed's attitude towards table contraction, "a long drought meets a sweet rain"; At present, the preventive interest rate reduction cycle of the Federal Reserve has opened, China's LPR reform mode has guided the reduction of the real interest rate of loans, and there is room for further improvement in monetary policy. Some worry that China US trade points to RMB devaluation as a constraint on China's monetary easing. We judge that the current fundamentals, interest rate spread and other factors determine that this round of devaluation does not have a long-term basis, nor is it a strong constraint on monetary decision-making.
From the perspective of regulatory atmosphere, the capital market positioning was significantly improved in January, and the loose regulatory environment of the stock market promoted the improvement of risk appetite. At present, the market supervision has turned to marketization again. The CSRC plans to promote the spin off of listed companies and the listing of subsidiaries, confirming the idea of "financial supply side reform" to strengthen the greater role of the direct financing market. We judge that the market atmosphere remains loose before the national day, which is conducive to the wide spread of the rise of a shares.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) : the lower edge of the important index is higher than that from May to June
Externally, Sino US trade frictions have escalated again, but this escalation is characterized by China's transformation from passive to active, which suppresses the risk preference of a shares, but the range probability is difficult to exceed that in the early stage; Internally, with further capital market reform, the high probability of equity asset liquidity will continue to improve, continuing the judgment that the lower edge of the important index is higher than that from May to June.
In terms of configuration, continue to recommend the technology stocks repeatedly emphasized since the medium-term strategy of 5.10, in which continue to pay attention to Huawei's industrial chain and the core targets in the semiconductor industrial chain. In addition, continue to focus on the auto sector with low positions and expected to benefit from the policy.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : bearish on external shocks and focus on looking for boom plates
Since the US announced the tariff list of US $50 billion in June last year, the global trade friction has been escalating, which not only hurt the import and export of various countries, but also brought great disturbance to the stock market. However, some industries in A-Shares still perform well, such as essential consumption (food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery), big finance (bank and non bank finance) Industries with strong performance support, such as military industry and computer, have achieved positive returns.
While the global trade friction is escalating, A-share investors gradually adapt to the disturbance from the outside of the market, and the panic has been significantly weakened compared with the initial stage of trade disputes; This weekend, trade frictions between China and the United States have made waves again, and the "immunity" of the market to repeated tariffs has been relatively strengthened; Despite the short-term impact of trade friction, the areas with strong performance uncertainty and upward industry prosperity are still favored by funds.
Therefore, in the case that trade friction may intensify or the pressure of RMB devaluation still exists, it is recommended to pay attention to industries with obvious upward trend and strong performance certainty, such as photovoltaic, communication equipment / communication infrastructure, semiconductor, oil service equipment, consumer electronics, military industry, cloud computing, securities companies, financial it and other subdivided fields.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : grasp the determination of fundamentals and structural opportunities
Looking forward to next week, overseas, the tension between China and the United States will escalate again. Under the "new normal" of G2 relations, it is still repeated and uncertain. In China, reform and opening up continue to make great strides forward, and the A-share weight of science and innovation board, 11 articles of financial opening up, refinancing, spin off and listing draft and MSCI will be from 10% to 15%. The external environment has a short-term disturbance to the market, but the market is promoted by internal positive factors. In the last week of China Daily disclosure, the market mainly grasps the fundamental and structural opportunities. In the medium-term dimension, "three mountains" are still in existence, and the impact of export chain and real estate chain on enterprise statements is still in existence, which still needs time to be evaluated.
Specific to the opportunity level, short-term, one attack and one defense, both attack and defense. "Attack" focuses on the emerging growth direction represented by Huawei mobile phone chain, 5g and military industry, which has been recommended since mid June. "Shou" is to grasp the defensive varieties represented by high dividends of public utilities and gold. In the medium and long term, it focuses on the core asset direction that has been evaluated and cost-effective after more than one quarter of adjustment. Adopt a similar long-term foreign investment approach of "beating the short with the long", focus on high-quality targets, the independent bull market of core assets will continue, the chips should not be easily changed hands, and firmly grasp the pricing power.
Anxin Securities: the A-share market is under short-term pressure, and a new round of market will start
The recent changes in the external situation may put pressure on the A-share market in the short term, but Anxin Securities believes that a new round of rising market in autumn may also be launched after the short-term "golden pit". This market is named "autumn market", which is different from the spring market. The spring situation is that investors expect China and the United States to reach an agreement on trade issues soon, At the climax of the spring market, Anxin Securities pointed out that investors were too optimistic about this.
Anxin Securities believes that the focus of the autumn market is the promotion of China's new round of short-term demand side (wide credit and active finance) + medium-term supply side (reform and opening up, stimulating and supporting private enterprises). Anxin Securities believes that the market is expected to focus on this. If the market makes a certain adjustment in the short term, investors should not panic, but should grasp the opportunity to bargain hunting and layout high-quality companies. The industry focuses on: military industry, self-control, infrastructure chain, gold, rare earth, securities companies, etc. it is suggested to focus on China Daily exceeding expectations, state-owned enterprise reform, etc.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : there are adjustment risks in the short-term market. These sectors are desensitizing to the trade war
If the trade war escalates again, there is a risk of adjustment in the short-term market. If the index challenges the lower edge of the shock range again, there is no need to be pessimistic. On the plate, the short-term rapid decline caused by each trade war is a process of constantly adjusting the structure of funds and focusing on consumption leaders and science and technology leaders. Behind the gradual desensitization of consumption leaders and technology leaders to the trade war is the support of stable profits and deterministic industrial trends.
Some other sectors logically benefit from the trade war, so they perform relatively well every time the trade war worsens. There are two types of industries with such benefits: first, the opportunities brought by the counter strategy of short-term trade war, such as seeds, rare earths, military industry, etc. Second, the long-term logic benefits from the deterioration of the trade war, such as self-control and gold. The former is partial to the theme and performs best in the short term (within a week), while the latter may benefit in the long term from the perspective of performance.
(brokerage China)
