[one week strategy of the top ten securities companies] A-Shares are at the starting point of the long-term bull market, the four concerns enter the confirmation period, and the market will officially start to break through
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the four major concerns enter the confirmation period and wait for the breakthrough in September
Since July, the A-share market has shown the trend of stock game. The main factors restricting the allocation of incremental funds are trade negotiations, global easing, Chinese policies and corporate profits. After these four factors are confirmed one after another, late September is the starting point for accelerating the admission of incremental allocation funds, and the market is expected to officially start to break through.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the relatively undervalued value of core assets will be the main direction of incremental funds in the early stage of allocation. It is suggested to take financial consumption as the bottom position. In September, we can focus on the relatively undervalued varieties of core assets and make reserves from October to November. It is suggested to pay attention to the banks that have gradually digested the expectation of narrowing the interest margin, the leading household appliances benefiting from the rebound in residential delivery, the leading automobile and parts and infrastructure sector with a valuation at the bottom of history, as well as the insurance and securities companies with beta attributes.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : technology + brokerage attack, and the core assets are the basic configuration
① Looking up in the distance, the era of equity investment and financing in China has opened, and the asset allocation of institutions and residents will be biased towards a shares. From a global perspective, A-share asset securitization rate is low and attractive.
② Compared with history, the valuation of A-Shares is low, and the advantages of risk premium rate and stock debt ratio are obvious. Corporate profits are catching up with the bottom. It is expected that the net profit of A-Shares will bottom in the third quarter and roe will bottom in the fourth quarter.
③ The adjustment of Shanghai Composite Index has entered the final stage since 3288 points. The short-term repeated consolidation is ready for the second wave of bull market rise, the medium-term technology and securities companies are better, and the core assets are the basic allocation.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities: Gold enters the strategic allocation period
From the macro level, the downward investment demand continues to promote the decline of interest rates in the real economy, which has become the most deterministic macro evolution trend. Therefore, from the perspective of large categories of assets:
First, the interest rates of interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds decreased under the guidance of monetary policy, and then the interest rates of credit bonds decreased gradually.
Second, in the process of the gradual decline of output level and price level and the decline of interest rate level, the stock market is also in low volatility. This correction is actually the interruption of the bull market process. After the decline of interest rate, the decline of enterprise cost and the improvement of profitability, investment activities pick up and the market will rise again.
Third, in this environment, there is devaluation pressure on the local currency, and commodities will gradually enter a bear market. The overseas economy is gradually declining. In the process of opening the interest rate reduction cycle, gold has also entered the period of strategic allocation.
The order of assets is: gold > bonds > stocks > local currency > commodities.
From the stock market, although it began to decline due to the escalation of Sino US trade conflict from May 2019, it has returned to about 2900 at this stage. But economic fundamentals determine the direction of long-term market movement. China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) it is expected that in the process of the gradual bottom of the economy, A-Shares are actually at the starting point of a long-term bull market. From the perspective of industry allocation, first of all, with the decline of interest rate and economic transformation, the valuation level of long-term growth stocks has improved faster, superimposed with the improvement of profit expectation, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) is optimistic for the long term. Secondly, consumption has also become the main demand for endogenous growth, which is also a direction worthy of long-term adherence. Third, China's economy has shifted to direct financing, and the reform of the capital market is also good for securities companies in the long run. Fourth, after the decline in interest rates, the allocation value of the high dividend sector also has a new attraction for fixed income investors. Therefore, investors add gold, technology, consumption, securities companies and high dividend varieties to avoid cycle varieties.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : the market may continue to be dominated by interval shocks
On September 6, the S & P Dow Jones index will release the list of China's A-share adjustment included in its index system. A-Shares will be included at one time with a 25% Inclusion factor and will also take effect before the opening on September 23. It is expected or will bring about US $14 billion (about RMB 100 billion) of incremental funds to the A-share market in total; Secondly, the overall valuation is low and in the bottom area; Daqing, the 70th anniversary of the founding of the people's Republic of China, is coming, and there are stability maintenance expectations in the market. The above factors may have a certain support for the market in September.
Based on the above factors, the market may continue to be dominated by range shocks in September, and the upper and lower space may be relatively limited. Taking the Shanghai Composite Index as an example, it is more likely to remain in the range of 2750-3000 in September. Bargain hunting focuses on the structural opportunities of leading stocks with excellent performance in the policy benefiting sectors such as science and technology, food and beverage, medicine, household appliances and big finance.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) : inflation has limited impact on a shares, and the index may fluctuate more in September
Since August, with the rapid rise of pig prices, the market is worried that inflationary pressure will restrict the market. Through the resumption of trading, Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) believes that the upward CPI driven by the rise of food has limited impact on the A-share trend. PMI data in August showed that supply was still expanding, but the overall economic demand was still weak. In August, the issuance scale of "national debt + local debt" increased by 8.7% compared with that in July. At the same time, the consumption stimulus policy was introduced, focusing on cars. The current policy tone shows that the downward pressure on China's economy is still controllable, and the future fiscal policy may be committed to structural adjustment. In addition, the impact of Sino US trade friction on A-Shares has weakened marginally. China and the United States may return to negotiations in September, but it does not constitute the main contradiction affecting the trend of a shares. Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) believes that the lower edge of the important A-share index in September is higher than that from May to June, and the central index is higher than that in August.
In terms of industry configuration, continue to recommend technology stocks, among which continue to pay attention to Huawei's industrial chain and the core targets in the semiconductor industrial chain.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : we haven't got rid of the range shock pattern yet. We still need patience
The downward pressure on the economy has increased, and the expectation of taking multiple measures to reform and stabilize growth is increasing; The meso economy is still divided, and the consumption toughness and some high-end manufacturing have improved; Liquidity remained moderately loose, and the valuation of the main broad-based indexes of A-Shares remained low; Focus on the two main lines of consumption and science and technology, make rational use of configuration tactics, and wait for the valuation switching window.
Looking forward to the future, policy concentration, economic resilience, low valuation and reform expectations are still the reasons for optimism about the medium and long-term market. The two main lines of "big consumption", which represents the most important engine of economic growth, and "scientific and technological innovation", which represents the new driving force of economic growth, have emerged, and are still optimistic strategically for a long time. However, considering that the overall market has not yet got rid of the range shock pattern, investors need to be patient and think against the trend.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : focusing on the structural market and intensive cultivation
Looking forward to September, the market will focus on grasping the structural market and intensive cultivation. Fundamentals, risk appetite and liquidity are good or bad. They compete and race with each other in September. The periodic "good" news is ahead. The market can be optimistic and make more offensive elastic varieties. When periodic "bad" news suppresses market sentiment, appropriately reduce positions. If, as mentioned above, China and the United States achieve results in stages, and the LPR reform promotes the interest rate to decline as scheduled, these positive factors are superimposed, and it is possible for the index to rise to a new level. Of course, if the expected events of investors do not come true, the "three mountains" also periodically superimpose bad news, and the market risk aversion may be stronger.
Specific to the opportunity level, short-term, both offensive and defensive. "Attack" combined with the performance of the interim report, superimposed with the upcoming appearance of new mobile phones of Huawei and apple, the emerging growth direction represented by Huawei mobile phone chain, 5g and military industry is expected to continue the previous performance. "Shou" is a defensive variety represented by high dividends of public utilities and gold.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : during the bottom configuration period, you can add cars and small and medium-sized innovation
During the bottom configuration period, you can add positions every major adjustment. At present, the actual growth rate implied by the valuation is expected to be slightly lower than 6%, and the market is once again in the bottom allocation period. Although the trend of the big game is still impacting the market, the marginal effect is decreasing, so there is no need to worry too much about foreign invasion. Moreover, the escalation of trade friction will further strengthen the logic of "big game catalyzing policy readjustment". At the same time, the deflationary effect of big game upgrading on surplus countries can reduce the restriction of structural inflation on "loose policy", and promote the policy economic cycle to return to the fourth stage of "weak data and loose policy", so as to provide momentum for market rise. At the same time, the higher than expected performance of industrial profits in July may be the lagging impact of the expansion of total assets of commercial banks in the early stage, which will help to realize the weak recovery after the second economic bottom in the third quarter.
Configuration suggestions: 1. Continue to add cars. 2. Continue to allocate more small and medium-sized enterprises. 3. Maintain the necessary consumer goods configuration. 4. Military industry, cycle or usher in the theme window period.
Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) : rebound or twists and turns in September
The short-term rebound stems from the improvement of risk appetite, and a sustainable rebound still needs to wait. In September, the market has the opportunity of staged rebound. The core driving force lies in the phased change of risk preference, which stems from two points: first, the recent increase of reform and opening-up measures, such as the socialist leading zone in Shenzhen, Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) five "freedoms" in the free trade zone, and the approval of new free trade zones in 6 provinces; The second is the increase of the impact of the counter cycle, the deterioration of economic data in July and August, the activation of LPR, 20 measures to boost consumption and possible stable manufacturing investment. There is no obvious change in economic growth and liquidity, which determines that the periodic rebound market presents structural characteristics, the rebound process will be twists and turns, and the structural opportunities are still leading in consumption and science and technology. The subsequent sustainable rebound stems from the marginal changes in economic growth and liquidity. On the one hand, the current economic cycle is still in the downward stage, and the inventory cycle is in the de inventory state. In the follow-up, we will pay close attention to the bottom of the U.S. economy; On the other hand, the change of liquidity depends on the supply of interest rate policy and the change of credit cycle. Closely track the adjustment of MLF interest rate and the change of credit growth.
On the whole, there is an opportunity for the market to rebound in September, but the space is relatively limited, showing twists and turns in structural opportunities. The industry configuration focuses on consumption and technology, and is over equipped with three industries such as automobile, medicine and consumer electronics.
BOCI Securities: focus on structural opportunities in the downward expectation of interest rate
Pay attention to the market structural opportunities under the downward expectation of interest rates and the improvement of risk appetite. In terms of market direction prediction, we maintain the early view. In the medium term, market profitability and valuation are under pressure, and it is difficult to have trend opportunities. In the short term, the downward expectation of risk-free interest rate combined with the improvement of risk appetite is expected to drive the market to rebound. BOC International Securities believes that the decline of risk-free interest rate caused by monetary easing does not necessarily lead to the rise of market risk appetite. At present, the market risk appetite has been at a low level, and there are certain expectations for potential uncertain events such as Sino US trade. In the short term, the release of reform policies is more likely to improve the market risk appetite, and the realization of the downward expectation of risk-free interest rate in the future is expected to further open a rebound window.
In terms of industry configuration, long gold copper ratio is still the preferred strategy recommended. The defense strategy of undervalued value and high dividend in the downward profit cycle is still the choice to obtain stable income, and grasp the deterministic opportunity brought by the performance of the interim report exceeding expectations. In the stage of rising short-term risk appetite, we can pay attention to the structural opportunities in the downward expectation of interest rates and the deterministic opportunities of the growth sector represented by 5g industrial chain.
future strategy > > >
Guosheng strategy Zhang Qiyao: which industries are improving the leading toughness?
Founder strategy: the financial sector deserves attention and vigilance against the collapse of the consumer sector
Guojin strategy Li Lifeng: welcome the golden September market, and the growth of science and technology is dominant (with gold stocks)
Huatai strategy: in September or more shocks, it is recommended to recommend technology + automobile, and preferred Huawei and semiconductor
GF strategy Dai Kang: get rid of the speculation thinking set of the concept of small cap, and the investment logic of growth stocks has undergone profound changes
Click to view > > > September A-share market investment guide. The latest release of ACE institutions and the release of top experts
(brokerage China)
