Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : China's policy easing expectation has been clear, and A-Shares have successfully broken through
The central line of China's policy affecting the four major concerns of A-Shares has been significantly improved and has become the main driver of market breakthrough. In terms of finance, the capacity of special bonds may be expanded during the year to boost infrastructure; In terms of currency, the comprehensive + directional RRR reduction has been confirmed and does not restrict the space for subsequent interest rate reduction; In addition, it is expected that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee will also strengthen the expectation of reform policies.
1) From breakthrough to potential, A-Shares still have upward kinetic energy. At present, the market's concern about China's policy has been significantly improved, and the recent policy strength is not weak; In the next few weeks, the central banks of the three major economies are expected to cut interest rates in turn to clarify the expectation of global easing. In addition, although the turning point of corporate profits still needs time to be confirmed, the margin has improved. The four major concerns will be gradually clarified. From breakthrough to momentum, A-Shares still have upward momentum.
2) The Shanghai composite index is expected to hit the previous high this year. In vertical comparison, the implied risk appetite of A-Shares is still at a low level; In horizontal comparison, the valuation quantile of A-Shares in major global indexes is relatively low: the risk of A-share stock funds in the future is expected to increase, while foreign capital will still maintain a stable and high net inflow. It is expected that the profit growth rate of all A-Shares in 2019 / 20 will be 6.0% / 10.4%. With the policy momentum and the improvement of enterprise profit expectation, the valuation switching will further open the space for the upward trend of the index. After the Shanghai stock index has broken through the 2800 ~ 2900 range, it is expected to continue to rise, and it is expected to hit the early peak of the year in this round of rise.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : the prospect of the second wave of bull market rise is clearer
① Maintain the bull market syllogism. The condition for the second wave of rise is that the fundamentals resonate with the policy, and the profitability and valuation are double-click. At present, the policy is confirmed, and it is expected that the fundamentals 3Q will rebound after bottoming out.
② Referring to history, the industry differentiation during the second wave of rise stems from the difference of profit elasticity. The structural market differentiation in the last two months is precisely due to the profit difference.
③ The prospect of the second wave of bull market rise is more clear, and there will still be repeated when the initial confirmation of fundamental data bottoms out. Continue to be optimistic about technology and securities companies in the medium term.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : "RRR reduction" is implemented, special debt expansion + interest rate reduction is expected
The "RRR reduction" is implemented, and the expansion of special debt + the "interest rate reduction" can be expected. On Friday, the "RRR reduction" released 900 billion long-term funds, and the "wide currency + stable credit" policy portfolio was reconfirmed.
(1) The amount of local bonds is nearly exhausted. Under the guidance of "steady growth", there is a demand for early issuance of special bonds; (2) "Interest rate reduction" is also "accelerating the implementation of measures to reduce the level of real interest rate". Moreover, the reform of LPR formation mechanism has also dredged the transmission channel from policy interest rate (MLF) to loan interest rate.
In terms of total amount, the bottom of A-share profit will appear no later than Q3; Structurally, under the stratification of credit, profitability and valuation, leading stocks still have high "cost performance", and "standard reduction" and "interest rate reduction" are expected to further raise the leading valuation level.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) : two interest spreads protect a shares. The sector with the best relative income is still science and technology growth
The central bank decided to comprehensively + directionally reduce the reserve requirement, Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) it is expected that the downward space of short-term interest rate is greater than that of long-term interest rate, and the term interest spread may widen, while the interest spread between China and the United States may remain relatively wide. The trend of the two interest spreads protects the risk appetite of the equity market.
In terms of A-share capital, there was a significant net inflow of northward capital in the first week of September. It is expected that the expansion and inclusion of A-shares by the subsequent two major international indexes will still bring incremental foreign capital. On the scene of a stock market, the transaction volume and valuation differentiation of the sector are increasing. It is expected that the sector with the best relative income is still scientific and technological growth, but the style is difficult to achieve extreme differentiation, or it will be bridged by periodic and financial valuation repair. The absolute rate of return of the overall A-Shares at the current valuation level will not be poor. Continue to recommend technology stocks + automobile sector, and pay attention to the valuation repair opportunities of cyclical stocks in due time.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : the RRR reduction came as scheduled, and A-Shares met the east wind again
The marginal relaxation of monetary policy and the increase of countercyclical regulation have boosted market sentiment in the short term. The release of liquidity by RRR reduction will expand the term interest margin, which is conducive to the long-term interest rate decline, and the interest rate decline superimposed with the improvement of risk appetite will boost the stock market valuation. RRR reduction combined with the new LPR mechanism to guide the reduction of enterprise financing costs will directly boost the profitability of non-financial listed companies.
Under the current combination of "low interest rate" + "low growth rate of social finance", the attractiveness of the stock market is further improved, superimposed with capital market support policies and upward cycle of science and technology, continue to be optimistic about the performance of "securities companies + technology stocks", and it is suggested to pay attention to computers, military industry, media and securities companies.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : the market changes from strategic defense to strategic attack
At the current time point, it is true that the external environment and internal growth transformation are still under pressure, and the disturbance caused by external risks should not be underestimated. However, the vitality brought to the market by reform measures and policy catalysis should not be ignored, and we should actively seize opportunities. It is suggested that under the structural market, investors can be gradually optimistic and the emerging growth is full of flexibility. The expectation of liquidity easing has increased, the risk appetite of China and the United States and the National Day has increased in the past 70 years, and the structural market is gradually expanding.
The market has shifted from strategic defense to strategic attack, and the strategic attack opportunity of "advancing into Dabie Mountain 2.0" is staged as scheduled, so as to grasp the attack opportunity of "index breaking through the early high point".
Anxin Securities: Autumn market is not in a hurry to cash
The recent policy has been increased as scheduled. Anxin securities expects that the combination of broad currency + positive finance will continue to work, and the autumn market is not in a hurry to cash in. Secondly, for the expected height of the short-term index, Anxin Securities believes that it should not be too radical. Objectively speaking, compared with the spring market, the downward pressure of the global economy and the market's expectation of the bottom of the economy are different. The recent rise in pork prices and the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate also have a certain impact on China's inflation expectations.
Generally speaking, Anxin Securities believes that when the autumn market has not been cashed out, it can also actively look for opportunities for some high-quality companies with relatively backward early performance. However, as the market is getting better, investors should maintain a reasonable income expectation in the follow-up, and should not be too restless to chase up.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : the current market is still in the bottom configuration period
Looking back, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that the deflation effect will reduce the pressure of structural inflation. The market has entered the fourth stage of "weak data and loose policies" again. In the future, the risk premium is expected to continue to decline and the market liquidity is improved, which has become the driving force of the market rise. Combined with historical statistics, the market usually has considerable positive returns within half a month and one month of RRR reduction, and the benefits of China Securities 500 and gem are more obvious. At present, the market is still in the bottom configuration period, so it is recommended to continue to hold positions patiently.
Structurally, it can be equipped with cars with high cost performance and recovery trend, as well as small and medium-sized enterprises (5g, semiconductor, information security and financial technology) benefiting from loose policies, and pay more attention to securities companies, cycle and military industry in the short term. Overseas, this week, China and the United States finalized the plan for talks, giving the situation a chance to further improve. As the global liquidity growth is expected to be very strong in September, risky assets will continue to be supported.
Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) : the market long window appears
Risk appetite increased and the long window appeared. Before the end of October, the market long window appeared, with wonderful structural opportunities. The core driving force comes from the continuous recovery of risk appetite, and the improvement of mood mainly comes from three factors. First, the impact of counter cyclical policy on the economy has increased significantly; Second, reform and opening up should be accelerated at the same time to boost market confidence; Third, the recent frequent catalytic events and the rapid recovery of risk appetite.
The main idea of industry allocation: technology + optional + finance, optimistic about technology and optional consumption. Among structural opportunities, science and technology are the most important. The core logic is that interest rates are down and financial resources are inclined. The downward trend of broad-spectrum interest rate is conducive to the flexibility of valuation. Financial resources, including direct financing and indirect financing, increase support for science and technology enterprises, as well as the registration system reform of science and innovation board and gem, help science and technology enterprises to finance more easily and obtain financial resources. The subdivided fields focus on consumer electronics, independent control of computer software and hardware, communication 5g and its application scenarios; Optional consumption is sensitive to liquidity, reflecting changes in residents' wealth expectations, and pays attention to cars and household appliances; The financial sector has had a comparative advantage in performance for four consecutive quarters, focusing on banks, non bank securities companies, etc. On the whole, in September, it was over equipped with cars, medicine, biology and electronics.
BOC International Securities: securities companies and technology stocks are expected to become the first choice for rebound
In the short term, the valuation repair market will continue, and the rebound height and sustainability are difficult to reach Q1. Compared with the rebound logic driven by the central decline of interest rate in the first quarter + improvement of profit expectation + improvement of risk appetite, it is difficult to significantly improve the market profit expectation in September, but at the bottom finding stage of the inventory cycle, the demand is still under pressure in the short term, and Q3 profit may be difficult to exceed the expectation. Compared with the current all a valuation level and historical quantile, BOCI Securities believes that the rebound repair space driven by market valuation is weaker than Q1.
The marginal easing of liquidity and the rise of risk appetite are expected to usher in a rebound brought by valuation repair in September. The market environment is similar to Q1 and June. Compared with the market structure performance under the background of historical interest rate center downward superposition and rising risk preference, high beta securities companies and technology stocks are expected to become the first choice for rebound. At present, the market has certain expectations for potential uncertain events. In the short term, the release of reform policies is more likely to improve the market risk appetite, and the realization of the downward expectation of risk-free interest rate in the future is expected to continue the rebound window.
(brokerage China)
