Facing the irrational fluctuations of A-share market, most investors will inevitably be disturbed by market fluctuations. However, Zhang Dong, fund manager of the International Business Department of GF, known as a “talented woman” in the industry, is an example. With a double master’s degree from a famous overseas school, she not only has the characteristics of strong endurance and strict adherence to the ability circle of female fund managers, but also has far-reaching thinking. She likes to study the financial reports of overseas listed companies and is good at analyzing the investment value of A-share listed companies from an international perspective.
In the interview with Zhang Dongyi, “long term” is a word that appears frequently. She attaches great importance to the long-term characteristics of enterprises such as business model, and the turnover rate is lower than the industry average. Reflected in the fund net worth growth curve, it is that the short-term explosive power may not be outstanding, but the medium and long-term performance ranking is relatively high. Galaxy Securities statistics show that as of November 1, the cumulative return of GF Juyou managed by her over the past three years was 64.77%, ranking third among 178 funds of the same kind.
Zhang Dongyi, a big consumption researcher, is very optimistic about investment opportunities in the future consumer segments. She believes that in the future, the growth rate of people’s income will far exceed the growth rate of CPI and the whole economy, and the large consumer industry is worthy of long-term optimism.
focus on thinking about the long-term vitality of the enterprise
There are various “sects” investors in the A-share market. Different from those fund managers who are good at trading and flexible operation, Zhang Dongyi, who has a calm personality, admitted that his excess return largely comes from in-depth research and long-term shareholding.
Zhang Dongyi said that she likes to buy companies that can see for a long time. How can it be regarded as a long-term company? In her opinion, first of all, the sustainable profitability is better. Specifically, it depends on two indicators: first, the roe is high enough, that is, the amount of profitability is enough; Second, the quality of profit is better, that is, pure cash flow business.
“To support the company to have such financial indicators, the common ground is that the market potential space is relatively large, the business model is relatively good, and the barriers are relatively high, so as to ensure the sustainability of profitability and the high roe of pure cash return, which is my standard for stock selection.”
Under the above standards, the sub industries with better growth in the large consumption industry are quite attractive to her, and the excess return on her investment also comes largely from the in-depth research and accumulation of the above sectors.
For the subdivided industries in the large consumption industry, Zhang Dongyi said that consumption is a very broad concept, including both channel consumer goods and brand consumer goods. Taking brand consumer goods as an example, it is essentially a process of continuously improving intangible assets and realizing them, so most of them reflect relatively light assets in the accounting statements. If there is a distribution model and operating leverage outside, most companies with good brands in this industry will show good cash flow and roe. “If you want to compare, from a long-term perspective, individuals prefer brand consumer goods.”
In addition to the financial indicators meeting the stock selection criteria, her preference for the large consumption sector also comes from her in-depth thinking on the stage of economic development. Zhang Dongyi said that each industry has its own life cycle. At present, the demographic dividend promoting China’s development is slowly decreasing, but the per capita income is rising, and the growth rate of people’s income will far exceed the growth rate of CPI and the whole economy. Therefore, the large consumption industry is worthy of long-term optimism.
optimistic about the large consumer industry
Big consumption is a track for a group of fund managers in China to focus on research and capture excess returns. Compared with his peers, Zhang Dongyi has two characteristics: first, evaluate whether the company’s pricing is reasonable from a global perspective. The second is to grasp the industrial logic and business model of Listed Companies in the seemingly complex financial statements, and have an insight into whether the enterprise has long-term vitality, which is also the “moat” built by her with a master’s degree from an overseas famous university.
“My undergraduate and graduate majors are accounting. One of my master’s degrees is financial accounting, so I pay more attention to the interpretation of statements and pay more energy. Some overseas companies can’t buy our fund portfolio, but I also like it.” Zhang Dongyi said that compared with Chinese enterprises, overseas listed companies have a longer survival cycle. Studying the statements of these enterprises will help her think about the vitality of enterprises from a broader dimension.
On the other hand, due to the short history of China’s a shares, the valuation given to the company may not be reasonable in the long run. Especially at the moment of continuous inflow of overseas funds, it is more meaningful to refer to the valuation of comparable companies in overseas mature markets.
“In the past, the A-share market basically formed its own valuation system. Now, with the continuous opening of A-shares to the outside world, the valuation system is more global, so the criteria for judging enterprise value still need to learn from foreign experience. For example, some industries with high A-share valuation have better cost-effective alternatives in overseas markets; for some industries and business models preferred by overseas markets, the pricing of A-shares can be improved Yes, but not enough. ”
Zhang Dongyi said that China Baijiu Baijiu has no overseas competitors, especially high-end liquor, and has a high brand barrier and a good business model from the perspective of China’s foreign comparison. A Of course, the valuation level at the time of purchase will also affect the potential rate of return. For example, when the valuation was low earlier this year, Baijiu brewed a relatively large investment opportunity. In addition, some leading enterprises of pharmaceutical consumer goods companies belong to sub industries with good R & D input and output, which is also her heart.
Looking forward to the market opportunities next year, Zhang Dongyi frankly said that it is difficult to judge the macro and market style, and this is not an important influencing factor in the long-term dimension.
Zhang Dongyi believes that the current market valuation is at a neutral level, and the current systematic valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is on the high side. In comparison, the Baijiu plate is currently valued at a reasonable rate, and there are still some subdivided consumption areas, such as catering, education and so on. There is room for growth in the long run. “At present, China is still in the consumption upgrading cycle. China’s population advantage makes the consumption upgrading cycle very long. Therefore, from the long cycle, I am still optimistic about the large consumption industry, choose good companies with sustainable growth ability in the industry, and strive to bring better returns to the portfolio.”
(Shanghai Securities News)
