Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : March will enter a peaceful period, which is an excellent configuration opportunity for the whole year
In March, the market will enter the environment of superposition of four phases, and the market is still on the way of “well-off cow”. It is expected that March will enter the peaceful period, which is an excellent allocation opportunity for the whole year. First, the epidemic has entered a period of spread outside China, but the global capital market has been fully adjusted, and the US stock earthquake will not further induce global systemic risks. The second is that China’s economy has entered a period of rapid recovery, the policy level has increased, and the resumption of work / production has begun to accelerate the climb. It is expected to be close to the normal level in April. For the A-share market, technology stocks will enter the calibration period of performance and valuation, individual stocks will move towards differentiation, and high-quality technology white horse will finally win. For investors, the A-share market will enter a period of peace, and there will be no rapid “V-shaped” reversal after the Spring Festival. It is a good opportunity to gradually allocate A-shares.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : the valuation quantile of A-Shares is better than that of us shares
① The reason for this adjustment is the sharp decline of the external market. The essence is that the post holiday liquidity drives the market to rise rapidly, but the fundamentals are poor. The market shape is similar to that from early August to early December of 19. ② The time and space for market rest need to track the progress of the global covid-19 epidemic and hedging policies. The valuation quantile of A-Shares is better than that of U.S. stocks, and the medium-term trend of the stock market depends on the internal fundamentals. ③ After the second bottom, the profit w will eventually rise. The upward pattern of the market throughout the year remains unchanged. We should strengthen confidence and remain patient. After the rest, the main line is still technology + securities companies.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) : A-Shares are the real safe haven assets in the global epidemic escalation
Epidemic impact is not only a concentrated exposure of internal problems, but also a concentrated test of response strength. Gold trading is crowded, US bonds may have valuation pressure, Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) believes that the real risk aversion assets of special risk events such as the epidemic are the low correlation with the global economy brought by strategic material production capacity + social governance capacity + complete industrial system. With the easing of external liquidity pressure, the capacity represented by A-Shares is a real safe haven asset in the escalation of overseas epidemic. At present, the upward space of A-Shares is greater than the downward space. Considering the policy starting point from currency → finance and epidemic response → counter cyclical adjustment, the logic of infrastructure and new infrastructure is more smooth in the short term.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : A-Shares will remain volatile and the fluctuation will slow down
In March 2020, A-Shares will remain volatile, the fluctuation will slow down, and the structural level will become relatively balanced. The epidemic situation in China has been effectively controlled, and the number of new confirmed cases has decreased significantly. China’s fiscal policy is expected to be more active, monetary policy is expected to be more flexible and appropriate, and enterprises are accelerating the resumption of work. Therefore, the Chinese factor is positive. However, the current epidemic is spreading to the world, causing a certain panic in the capital market in the short term. However, governments have begun to face up to the spread of the epidemic and are taking a series of countermeasures. In particular, the US monetary policy may be further relaxed, which will have a positive support for market liquidity. Therefore, the overseas market fell sharply last week and the panic was released. In the future, it will return to the epidemic response and policies, and the overseas market will change from rapid decline to wide shock. Therefore, the impact of external risks on A-Shares gradually slows down.
Anxin Securities: golden pit 2.0, this repair will be more robust
Anxin securities once proposed that the adjustment caused by China’s epidemic concerns was a “golden pit”. Since then, the market has indeed quickly repaired the decline after the festival, and the gem index has quickly reached a new high. Considering the current situation, the view of Anxin securities on the current state of the A-share market is that the current adjustment due to overseas epidemic concerns is “golden pit 2.0”.
Different from “golden pit 1.0”, the market position, especially the position of technology stocks, is relatively higher. Of course, at the same time, the global risk-free interest rate is further reduced. Anxin Securities believes that from the perspective of market law, the repair market of “golden pit 2.0” may be more stable, and the market risk appetite may be slightly lower, which makes the market repair speed and structure different from that of “golden pit 1.0”. It is expected that the repair speed will be relatively more moderate and the structure will not be too extreme, The market will no longer excessively pursue theme stocks and pay more attention to fundamentals: in the first quarterly report, this year’s boom and medium and long-term space, opportunities will mainly focus on high-quality growth stocks. At the same time, undervalued stocks benefiting from the increase of steady growth will also have an appropriate performance. Recently, the industry focuses on: Medicine (biomedicine, medical equipment, etc.), media (Internet, games, etc.), communication, computer (cloud computing, etc.), electronics (semiconductor, apple chain, etc.), new energy vehicles (Tesla industrial chain, etc.), automobile, real estate, construction, environmental protection, etc. the index focuses on: Gem 50 index, gem index, CSI 500 index, etc. It is suggested to focus on new infrastructure (5g, industrial Internet, etc.), WiFi 6, etc.
Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) : bargain hunting layout in adjustment
From the perspective of market sentiment, the growth style shows signs of short-term overheating, which is reflected in large periodic increase, obvious increase in the number of trading limits, close to historical highs in the overall position of the fund, accelerated growth in the balance of two financial institutions, continuous outflow of foreign capital, etc. Considering that the yield of government bonds is in the downward path, the space for further downward decline of equity premium level is limited, and the cost performance of equity assets is still good, In the adjustment, bargain hunting layout is still a good strategy.
Bargain hunting layout in two directions: first, counter cyclical policy overweight related infrastructure, real estate and finance, focusing on building materials, real estate, construction machinery, construction, securities companies, etc; Second, the medium-term layout growth, bargain hunting can focus on TMT, advanced manufacturing, medical services and other segments.
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) : the rise and fall of A-Shares are mainly determined by internal factors. There is no need to worry too much
The recent rapid spread of the epidemic abroad has aroused the concern of global investors. Stock markets continued to fall and the panic index hit a new high. Affected by the sharp decline in the peripheral market, the funds going north withdrew in stages, and there was a significant correction in a shares. During the week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 5.2% and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 5.6%. The small and medium-sized board index fell 5.6%, and the gem index fell 7%, realizing obvious short-term disturbance. However, it can be seen from historical experience that the rise and fall of A-Shares are mainly determined by internal factors, and external factors only follow or assist, so there is no need to worry too much.
In the past ten years, US stocks have fallen sharply three times and A-Shares have made three major adjustments, but the fluctuations of US stocks have not had a substantive impact on a shares. The decline of A-Shares in June 2015, early 2016 and the whole year of 2018 was mainly caused by internal factors, or the interruption of leverage, or the decline helped by the circuit breaker mechanism, or the tightening of liquidity caused by the new asset management regulations.
YueKai Securities: A-Shares still have high investment value
Most markets in the world have undergone substantial adjustments, and A-Shares may be dragged down in the short term, but A-Shares are not completely related to the trend of the peripheral market. Considering the fundamentals, policies and valuation, A-Shares are relatively less affected by the peripheral market in the medium and long term. The impact of event factors on A-Shares is gradually declining, and the follow-up countercyclical policy is expected to be further strengthened. A-Shares still have strong investment value at this stage.
(1) At present, the valuation of A-Shares is still relatively reasonable and cost-effective. Compared with the three major U.S. stock indexes, FTSE 100, South Korea composite index and Nikkei 225, the current valuation of A-share Shanghai Composite Index and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 is still low, and the current valuation of Shanghai Composite Index and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 is only 12.44 times and 11.77 times. The valuation quantile of A-share since June 2015 is also significantly lower than that of other stock indexes, only higher than Nikkei 225. (2) Liquidity continued to be loose. The central bank has recently lowered interest rates many times and maintained a relatively loose liquidity environment. Since March 1, the stock mortgage interest rate has officially “changed the anchor”, which is beneficial in the long run. After the reform, all loans will be driven by LPR interest rate, the impact of money market interest rate and policy interest rate on loan interest rate will be significantly improved, and the marketization of interest rate at the loan end will be greatly promoted, The effect of the central bank’s monetary policy transmission will also be greatly improved. (3) Policies underpin the economy and counter cyclical regulation is expected to continue. The Politburo meeting held on February 21 pointed out that the proactive fiscal policy should be more active and the prudent monetary policy should be more flexible and appropriate; Recently, many central ministries and commissions have successively launched policies to accelerate the construction of major projects. The disturbance of event factors leads to the lack of endogenous recovery power, and the follow-up countercyclical policies are expected to continue to support the economy.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : the market fluctuation may increase, but the upward trend of index fluctuation will continue
Cherish the opportunity of layout again brought by the shock. The current macro environment of the A-share market is similar to that of the first quarter of 2019. For example, counter cyclical policies for steady growth have been introduced frequently, and monetary policies such as interest rate reduction in the open market and targeted reserve requirement reduction can be expected in the future; In addition, the dividend of the technology sector is further released. At the same time, for the performance of a shares, the current A-Shares and A-Shares in the first quarter of 2019 are in the vacuum period of quarterly performance, and the performance can not be falsified in the short term.
Therefore, Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) it is expected that the current A-Shares are expected to deduce the Q1 market in 2019. In terms of the running rhythm of a shares, as the current index valuation is higher than the same period in 2019, the market fluctuation may increase, but the upward trend of index fluctuation will continue. In terms of A-share style and industry configuration, “new infrastructure” will be better than “old infrastructure”, and scientific and technological innovation is still the main line of current configuration. Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) it is suggested that investors can focus on configuring “5g and 5g application terminals (cloud computing, cloud services, games, security and controllability), photovoltaic and power grid” in March.
Guosheng Securities: global earthquake, A-Shares will take the lead in coming out of the impact
The spread of overseas epidemic has triggered a global earthquake. Two advantages will make China take the lead in getting out of the impact.
1) Rapid and effective response to policies under institutional advantages. In the face of the impact of the epidemic, Chinese regulators responded quickly. On the one hand, immediately carry out comprehensive epidemic prevention and control from top to bottom. Up to now, the inflection point of China’s epidemic impact has been found, and the number of new cases has decreased significantly. In contrast, overseas, unlike China, where the epidemic has already ushered in a turning point and has been gradually controlled, many countries have gradually entered the stage of spread and diffusion after ineffective response in the initial stage. The follow-up impact on the market will be different due to the different stages of the epidemic in China and overseas. On the other hand, China’s various measures to support the underlying economy and maintain market stability were introduced early to clarify the care of the real and capital markets. Overseas response and response are significantly lagging behind that of China.
2) A-Shares are sensitive to policies and have self dominated resilience. After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the A-share market led the world for four months after the policy changed from tight to loose and made efforts to maintain stability. Under the impact of this round of epidemic, the A-share market also responded quickly in the face of full and effective epidemic prevention and control and multiple care of supervision. After the sharp decline on the first day of the year, it was adjusted in place at one time, and then ushered in repair. Therefore, despite the weak overseas epidemic prevention and control and the impact of A-Shares again under the spread of global panic, we still need to focus on ourselves. The main contradiction is the effectiveness of China’s own epidemic prevention and control and the continuous overweight of counter cyclical regulation.
To sum up, whether from the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control and policy care under the institutional advantages, or the policy sensitivity and toughness of the A-share market itself, it will lead A-Shares out of the current round of epidemic impact.
(brokerage China)
