Recently, the A-share market fluctuated and rose, and the market momentum rebounded. Among them, the northward capital sentiment is heating up, and the two financial data are also further rising. At the same time, market sentiment was not greatly affected by the macroeconomic data released on April 17. For the future, the agency believes that when the overseas epidemic is far from being fully controlled, the real stabilization of the global market still needs to be observed, but the current valuation level of A-Shares is obviously attractive to long-term investors, so we can pay attention to the long-term layout of excellent companies with stable fundamentals.
macroeconomic data meet expectations
Last week (April 13-17), the broad-based index fluctuated upward. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.50%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.23%, and the Shanghai 50 index rose 2.15%, of which the gem index rose by a large margin, reaching 3.64%. In terms of capital flow, the data showed that last week, the net capital flow from the North was more than 30 billion yuan, and the capital sentiment from the North was heating up; The two financing funds were stable. As of April 16, the balance of the two financing funds was 1060.310 billion yuan, an increase of 2.385 billion yuan compared with the previous period (April 10).
It is worth noting that the macroeconomic data released on April 17 showed that China’s GDP fell 6.8% year-on-year in the first quarter. The market has basically reached a consensus on the negative economic growth in the first quarter. From the market reaction, the market sentiment has not been greatly affected in the short term, and the Shanghai Composite Index, gem index and other major indexes have only fluctuated slightly.
In this regard, Zhu Chaoping, global market strategist of Morgan asset management, said that the future growth prospects largely depend on the changes of the epidemic outside China and the progress of prevention and control measures, including vaccine and drug research and development. At present, China’s growth prospects still face some pressure. In terms of external demand, China’s export growth is under pressure to continue to weaken due to the strict isolation measures maintained by major European and American countries; In terms of domestic demand, it is still difficult for some service industries to resume business due to concerns about the second outbreak. However, the upward risk is also rising. If there is a breakthrough in treatment means, overseas may quickly usher in the inflection point of economic activity recovery, which will also help to improve the speed of China’s economic rebound.
Zhou wenqun, stock director and fund manager of Fidelity International China, also said that the macroeconomic data released met expectations and was confident of a strong recovery in the second quarter of 2020. The positive side is that most production and consumption activities have recovered in March. Looking ahead, we will see the continuous improvement of GDP structure, the increasing proportion of consumption and the gradual reduction of dependence on import and export trade.
medicine and essential consumer goods play a leading role
Fund sources pointed out that when the overseas epidemic is not fully controlled, the real stabilization of the global market still needs to be observed. From the perspective of the Chinese market, the future trend of A-Shares also needs to pay attention to the epidemic development, but the current valuation level is attractive to long-term investors and can pay attention to the long-term layout of excellent companies with stable fundamentals.
Boshi Fund said that in terms of a shares, the dividend yield increased slightly and the valuation attractiveness increased; Compared with the first quarter, the capital level has increased. The recovery of public fund issuance, the return of funds to the north and the pressure of lifting the ban and reducing holdings are the key concerns. Overseas financial risk transmission decreased, and efforts were made to maintain the stability of the capital market under the impact of the epidemic. Overall, the trading surface is neutral.
In terms of sectors, Wang Keyu, investment and research director of Hongde fund, said that from the perspective of investment direction, we should first choose excellent companies relying on advantageous industries. In the past, China’s excellent industries included high-end manufacturing and equipment and information service companies in TMT industry. However, after the epidemic spread, the third and fourth industries with obvious advantages in China have also appeared, They are medicine and medical devices and industries that must change according to the consumption trend.
“Investment in essential consumer goods has been arranged in the early stage. At present, it seems that this is very in line with the consumption trend in the later stage, and some concentrated investment will be made after the research. The value of A-share investment is significant, and the subsequent investment will still focus on the two dimensions of China’s advantageous industries and excellent listed companies, mainly in the direction of high-end manufacturing, TMT, medicine and medical devices and essential consumer goods The bank focuses on investment. ” Wang Keyu said.
Boshi Fund believes that two clues may be considered for structural allocation: first, industries that are less affected by the epidemic or benefit from policies and have relatively certain performance, such as essential consumption, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, automobile, communication, infrastructure industry chain, etc; Second, choose defensive industries with low value and high dividends such as power and finance.
(China Securities Journal)
