Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) : A-Shares are optimistic about three main investment lines based on the logic of “cutting peaks and filling valleys”

On May 19, A-Shares rebounded from shock. The outbreak of technology stocks led the rebound of A-Shares across the board.

On the same day, A-Shares opened higher, boosted by the overnight sharp rise in US and European stock markets.

At the close, the three major A-share indexes rose. The stock index rose 0.81% to 2898.58 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.21% and the gem index rose 1.38%.

In particular, the chip semiconductor sector, which fell 3.79% the previous day, rebounded sharply . At the close, Shenwan industry semiconductor index rose 5%. The total market value of the semiconductor industry soared by 41.4 billion yuan.

Among them, the semiconductor material index soared by 8.74%, and the total market value increased by more than 10 billion yuan. 17 chip concept stocks rose, and 11 Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) concept stocks rose. For example, Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) rose 17.70% and its share price broke through an all-time high.

The data showed that the national big fund index closed up 5.93%. The semiconductor packaging index rose 4.83%.

Under the sharp rise of the semiconductor sector, ETF funds with related themes also rose sharply. Among them, chip ETF, semiconductor 50, chip fund, semiconductor and other funds increased by more than 5%

In view of the sharp decline of chip stocks from the previous day to the sharp rise, analysts believe that ” overcompensation “.

in the current market, many technology stocks are head shaking. Whether it’s reverse contracting, reverse contracting, or reverse contracting, it’s a continuous process of building the top. ” said a private equity fund manager who mainly invests in technology stocks.

The aforementioned private placement people believe that the Huawei incident still has an impact in the short term, but Huawei can still solve this problem, but it will take some time.

as for Huawei related stocks, I really can’t find a reason to support the stock price, so I avoided them as much as possible. ” said the above private placement person.

today’s semiconductor chip stocks are stronger, with obvious signs of short-term capital influx. many stocks with active trends have high valuation levels. Even if the short-term growth rate is relatively fast, the stock price of has overdrawn the growth expectations for the next two or three years. It is not recommended to catch up with the high configuration. ” said Xia Fengguang, manager of private placement network future star fund.

It believes that the Huawei incident should be interpreted from both positive and negative aspects. The crackdown by the United States will indeed disrupt the rhythm of the development of independent and controllable science and technology industry represented by Huawei, but the crackdown also shows that Huawei’s scientific and technological strength has reached the global leading level, and the pace of the development of China’s science and technology industry has touched the interests of the United States. The road of independent innovation in science and technology is not easy, nor will it be plain sailing.

the suggestion is to firmly value the space for long-term development, but we should be conservative in stock selection, and choose science and technology enterprises with market application prospects, high enterprise R & D investment and good cash flow. ” Xia Fengguang said.

Wu Xiaofu, director of Tianhe investment, believes that, “It is expected that the supply interruption of the United States will cause a great blow to Huawei’s industrial chain, but it gives a time window. In the short term, it is more like a chip for subsequent negotiations. This measure of the United States will also accelerate China’s import substitution and domestic upgrading, and pose a strong expectation for the chip equipment and materials with a small proportion of domestic products 。 Although chip stocks will be impacted in the short term, they will be the focus of science and technology in the medium and long term, and will also be a key industry supported by China, bargain hunting intervention ambush or better . ”

It is worth noting that the transaction volume of A-Shares in the two cities on the same day exceeded 600 billion yuan. The shrinking and rising market makes the market worried about the future market.

However, when domestic capital hesitated to enter the market, northbound funds continued to buy on the same day, with a net inflow of 3.699 billion yuan.

Recently, funds going north have entered A-Shares on a large scale, with a net inflow of 14.022 billion yuan since May, 53.258 billion yuan in April, and 49.383 billion yuan so far this year.

For the trend of a shares, Zhou Haichen, general manager of Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) Research Institute, said in the activities held by Shenwan securities Shenzhen Branch, Shenwan futures and private placement network: ” in 2020, the A-share market will deduce around the logic of ‘peak cutting and valley filling’, maintain the oscillation trend, cut the peak when it rises and fill the valley when it falls.

He believes that the first wave of “peak cutting and valley filling” has appeared, and the end of this wave is about June; The second wave is expected to appear after the interim report, because the interim report may be worse than everyone thought, and there may be a wave of downward adjustment of profit forecast. However, the peak clipping of the second wave may give birth to greater opportunities. Assuming that this wave falls, the valley filling of the third wave will be more meaningful.

Zhou Haichen said that in terms of investment opportunities, he is optimistic about three main lines: one is new infrastructure and technology, the second is “Vanke gate” (similar to Vanke), and the third is “Maotai gate” (similar to Maotai) .

(21st Century Business Herald)

 

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