On the evening of May 31, the “weekend Live Room” of Xinhua news agency, held by China Securities News, arrived as promised. In a warm interactive atmosphere, Shi Bo, winner of Taurus award, veteran of steady investment, deputy general manager and chief investment officer (equity) of China Southern Fund, and Guan Tao, a well-known economist, foreign exchange research expert, Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) global chief economist and managing director, A wonderful dialogue was launched around the topic of “how to keep up with the investment of the New Development Bureau in the changing situation”.
Participants believed that China’s macroeconomic stabilization could be expected. Solid economic fundamentals made the A-share market more resilient. The stock market is the most suitable investment asset at present. In terms of specific investment direction, high-quality leaders in new infrastructure, new energy vehicles, consumption, pension and other sectors deserve attention.
For individual investors, the guests suggested that they should have a long-term investment mentality and establish a long-term investment system, so as to obtain better returns in the market through cattle and bears.
the stock market is the most suitable investment asset
The two sessions of the National People’s Congress, which attracted much attention, just ended a few days ago. Different from previous years, this year’s government work report does not put forward specific targets for economic growth, but requires to focus on “six stabilities” and “six guarantees”, which has also become the focus of the industry.
“There are many uncertainties in the development of the world economy and the epidemic, and China also faces many uncertain factors. In this case, it may be difficult to establish a specific economic growth rate.” Guan Tao believes that, of course, this does not mean that we do not pay attention to growth, and China’s economic growth is in the stage of changing from high-speed development to high-quality development. While weakening the growth goal, we pay more attention to the goal of people’s livelihood.
Guan Tao pointed out that with the epidemic situation in China under control and entering the stage of resumption of production, China’s economy is indeed accelerating the repair, which means that investors need to be prepared.
According to Shi Bo, although this year’s government work report does not determine a clear GDP growth figure, from the perspective of future macroeconomic trends, China is the country with the best anti epidemic effect and the best degree of economic repair among the major economies. “China’s economic competitiveness is improving, so the foundation of the stock market is still solid.”
Shi Bo believes that the current capital market expectations for fiscal policy mainly include two aspects: one is the support of fiscal policy for infrastructure construction, and the other is the measures to promote consumption and promote scientific and technological innovation; In terms of monetary policy, the current loose monetary environment will have an impact on asset prices and benefit the price of high-quality assets. However, at the same time, export-oriented enterprises turn to domestic demand, which makes the competition more intense, and the profits of enterprises may be affected.
Guan Tao added that compared with overseas markets, the A-share market is more resilient. First, thanks to China’s relatively good economic fundamentals, effective epidemic control and gradual economic recovery; Second, thanks to the timely operation of China’s fiscal and monetary policies. “Overall, the stock market is the most suitable investment asset.”
wide liquidity is good for the stock market
bond market or housing market under pressure
The epidemic spread all over the world, and a large number of assets, including the stock market, were frustrated to varying degrees. There was a “negative oil price” for international crude oil, and the price of gold rose steadily during the year. Looking forward to the second half of the year, what strategies do ordinary investors have in the allocation of major categories of assets?
Guan Tao believes that when the global currency is relatively loose and the liquidity is high, low interest rates may push up the market risk preference, which is good for equity investment and stock market; When the interest rate goes down, the bond market may also have a certain market; Under the expectation of global excess liquidity, do not rule out the depreciation of the US dollar in the future, then gold may have a chance.
In terms of overseas asset allocation, Guan Tao pointed out that under the circumstances of overseas epidemic development and uncertainty in the world economic situation, the performance of the US dollar index is relatively strong; However, if the epidemic lasts for a long time and even repeats again in the future, the restart of the U.S. economy will be frustrated, and its asset prices may bottom again.
Shi Bo said that he is optimistic about the long-term allocation value of a shares. The global loose monetary policy environment has a great impact on the capital market. At present, high-quality leading companies have become safe haven assets for global investors; It is expected that China’s economy will recover rapidly, which may lead to the recovery of interest rate in the later stage, and the bond market may be under pressure; In the property market, there is a certain pressure on investment real estate.
At present, more and more China concept stocks are returning to the A-share or Hong Kong stock market for secondary listing. Shi Bo believes that for these companies, China listing can be closer to the customer base and the supply chain, and the total experience is more stable. “In the future, two situations will exist at the same time: on the one hand, some companies are willing to list abroad; on the other hand, more high-quality companies will also be willing to list in China.”
For ordinary investors, both guests suggested that the layout should be from a medium – and long-term perspective.
Shi Bo suggested that individual investors should have a long-term investment mentality and establish a long-term investment system, so as to obtain better returns in the long term. “The risk of individual stock selection is high. Finding a suitable fund manager with the help of professional strength is a good way of investment.”
Guan Tao pointed out that investment should look for structural investment opportunities and carry out medium – and long-term layout in the process of structural adjustment triggered by reform and opening up.
optimistic about the new infrastructure and consumption sector
The relatively independent market of A-Shares during the year attracted global attention. In terms of investment, which industry sectors have more potential to cross cattle and bears?
“At present, the valuation of A-Shares is highly differentiated, and the domestic demand sector is more popular in the capital market; some traditional infrastructure industries have a solid leading position, and some companies with good profitability and cash flow and high dividend ratio have investment value; the new energy vehicle and chip industry will have a definite upward trend in the next 3-5 years; the investment core of the semiconductor industry is innovation ability and technology Level. ” Shi Bo believes that on the whole, it is recommended to pay attention to high-quality companies with reasonable valuation and strive to obtain long-term returns.
Guan Tao said that there are investment opportunities in concept stocks related to “two new and one heavy” construction, including new infrastructure, new urbanization construction and major engineering construction, and smart city construction may be an important direction of new urbanization construction in the future; For traditional infrastructure investment, investors are advised to lower their expectations and select high-quality stocks; In the semiconductor sector, Baima shares, which have become the leading enterprises with technological advantages, can be purchased at an optional opportunity.
For the consumption and pension sectors concerned by the market, both guests maintained a positive attitude.
Shi Bo believes that consumption has been a relatively stable sector of A-Shares in the past decade. On the one hand, investment needs to grasp the opportunities of traditional consumer stocks, on the other hand, it needs to pay attention to the changes of consumption trends, such as the impact of online marketing on consumer behavior; For individual pension, the allocation proportion of various assets needs to be arranged according to the individual age level.
Guan Tao believes that the previous policy level proposed to build a large cycle system of China’s domestic demand and promote the new development pattern of double cycle of China’s international economy, which means that there are opportunities for relevant consumption concept stocks; At present, the quality of life of Chinese residents has improved. Superimposed on the problem of population aging, the pension sector has investment prospects. “Some leading enterprises that can integrate the pension, medical, health and other industrial chains have higher cost performance and may have better market prospects in the future”.
(China Securities Journal)
