Driven by the unexpected economic recovery and the entry of incremental funds into the market, the A-share market has risen sharply recently. Recently, Wang Hongyuan, CO chairman of Qianhai open source fund, expressed his latest views at an online strategy meeting for institutional customers. He is not simply bullish or bearish on a shares, but judges the trend of the capital market from the perspectives of global fundamentals, big country game, China US relations and China's strategic policies. He believes that in a few years, China may be the first large economy to recover substantially in the world, and China's capital market is worthy of a long-term layout based on a few-year cycle.
don't stick to traditional value investment
In Wang Hongyuan's view, the current global environment is experiencing unprecedented evolution and shocks, and investors need to adapt to markets that cannot be understood by traditional value investment and fundamental analysis.
"From the perspective of traditional value investment, the fundamentals of the global economy are very poor, which does not support the current valuation of the global stock market, nor can it support a bull market. At the same time, the major economies led by the United States have launched unprecedented loose fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. The stimulus scale of the United States of nearly $3 trillion is three times that of 2008, and the global liquidity has reached a once-in-a-century return." The level of abundance. " Wang Hongyuan said.
He pointed out that the extremely depressed economies of various countries and abundant liquidity constitute the main contradiction between the stock markets of various countries. Super loose macro policies have played a role, but when the epidemic is not over and the recovery of the real economy is still facing major uncertainty, the abundant liquidity brought by monetary easing is difficult to enter the real economy and effectively transform it into investment and consumption, but directly or indirectly enter the financial market to win short-term benefits. Looking back, the world's substantially loose monetary policy will continue for a long time in the future. Under this background, the global stock market may maintain a seesaw state of sharp rise and fall.
"Therefore, I am not simply bullish or bearish on the market, but tend to look for opportunities in the dynamic." Based on the above analysis, Wang Hongyuan stressed that there is no need to worry too much about whether a certain asset is worth layout under the traditional fundamental analysis and value investment concept, because the final result is nothing more than rise or fall, and we should see more unprecedented variable factors.
China quality stock
is an important target for the layout of the long-term future
Wang Hongyuan believes that every disaster is brewing new opportunities. Although it is difficult to really end the epidemic in the short term, mankind will eventually overcome the epidemic and the global economy will recover. During this period, the currencies of sovereign countries (including gold and silver) and high-quality stocks of the host countries that can cross the game cycle of big countries and take the lead in recovery in the future are worthy of long-term layout based on a few-year cycle.
In his view, China will be the leader in the next global economic recovery. From a fundamental point of view, China's economic growth has not returned to normal, but it is relatively the best in the world. In the context of the global water release, China's stimulus in the fiscal and monetary system this year is relatively mild, and the starting point is mainly focused on reform.
Wang Hongyuan specially pointed out that under the background of the big country game, China US relations have a significant impact on the capital market strategy. China and the United States will open a protracted war and bring opportunities and challenges to China's capital market. In his view, the RMB may become the first sovereign currency to recover among the world's major powers. "In the past, the RMB exchange rate was subject to the controversy of overvaluation, but in this epidemic, governments of various countries have launched fiscal and monetary stimulus policies, and the 'barrier lake' caused by RMB foreign exchange control has decreased significantly. According to the mainstream opinion of Wall Street, the overvaluation of the RMB has been reduced from 15% to 10%. With the recovery of China's economy and the overflow of a large amount of liquidity released by the Federal Reserve, this ratio will continue Lower, global investors' concerns about the valuation of RMB will gradually diminish, and some long-term negative factors will weaken. " He said.
Facing the challenges brought by China US relations to China's capital market, China has also taken important measures at the strategic and policy levels. "I personally believe that the central government has paid unprecedented attention to the capital market and made strategic preparations for the worst case of financial security and China US strategic game, which is reflected in the implementation of a series of measures to build and improve the basic system of the capital market, such as the reform of the registration system. The focus is to promote the reliability of rules to international management, not a simple index point."
He said that the establishment of Hainan Free Trade Zone, the launch of the science and innovation board and the continuous opening of foreign financial licenses are all important measures for China to adapt to the new pattern, reflecting the core idea of multi-channel opening and accelerating internationalization that the senior management has adhered to in recent years. "In particular, the continued increase in financial openness means that we can no longer close the door. The total assets and operating income of a Goldman Sachs company are equal to the sum of China's securities industry, and we can't compete with it. It should be noted that American securities companies serve not only their own country, but also the world."
Generally speaking, from the traditional fundamentals, the global fundamentals do not have the conditions to support the bull market, and China is the only large economy to achieve positive growth this year. With the sharp contraction of the US economy, the GDP gap between China and the United States will be further narrowed.
He said frankly that the layout of China's high-quality stock assets is completely worth it. It is the layout expectation and dream, but it is only applicable to investors who control the leverage level, can bear the risk of large fluctuations and endure for a few years in case of accidents.
China's monetary policy stimulus
or will be lower than expected
Standing at the current time point, Wang Hongyuan made a judgment on China's fiscal and monetary policies and the development direction of the capital market.
In terms of monetary policy, unlike the centralized stimulus measures of the United States, China adheres to "a prudent monetary policy should be more flexible and appropriate" and plans according to a long cycle of 10 to 15 years. "The intensity of China's fiscal and monetary policy stimulus is not only far lower than expected in the past few months, but also significantly lower than the capital market expectations in the next year or two." He said.
"Second, the overall idea of financial deleveraging remains firm. The implementation of policies, including the new regulations on asset management, aims to reduce China's macro total debt ratio from 250% to 280% to 150% to 180%, and this direction will not change. Third, the general tone for promoting the steady and healthy development of the real estate market has not changed, and" no speculation in real estate "is still the bottom of real estate development Line. No matter as a real estate developer or market, never expect the central government to relax the regulation of the real estate market due to some short-term fluctuations. " Wang Hongyuan stressed.
He said, "China will continue to deepen the reform of the capital market to build a strong, fair, open and fair capital market, which can play a role in the process of reducing the total macro leverage ratio by 100 points throughout the country, and will never endorse a technical point. This is the fourth point."
Wang Hongyuan pointed out that the most important thing in this process is to seize the opportunity and integrate with international practices. "In the past, we used to adopt the approval system, but in the future, we will adopt the registration system. With the further promotion of the registration system, IPO will also show a normal development. In addition, the domestic spin off and listing of A-Shares have broken the ice, and the accelerated return of China concept shares, listing is no longer a scarce resource. In the future, no matter how much money residents are willing to invest in the capital market, there will certainly be no shortage of shares. However, there are risks in the long-term future, Be careful. "
gold and agriculture are worth configuring
From the perspective of long-term preservation and appreciation of property, he suggested that investors should be vigilant against systemic risks and actively participate in the capital market on the premise of doing what they can to hedge against the depreciation of the purchasing power of paper money under inflationary pressure.
He explained, "governments and central banks can not allow the great depression in 1929 to reappear, nor will they allow the deflation in Japan to reappear. Therefore, increasing the stimulus of fiscal and monetary policies is a high probability event. Only by participating in the capital market can ordinary people obtain the possibility of maintaining and increasing the value of assets in the long term."
With regard to the current operation of the absolute income account, Wang Hongyuan believes that the first is to go through the game cycle of big countries, the second is to go through the epidemic cycle of two or three years, and the third is to grasp the leader of the next recovery.
In addition to the allocation of stocks, gold, agriculture and other products that can hedge the inflation of high-income and low-income groups are the preferred varieties to maintain and increase the value and overcome the risk of paper currency depreciation in the future.
"The rich should now store gold and silver, and the poor should now store rice, instant noodles, potatoes, radishes, etc. Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) 。 Gold, silver and agriculture, including gold ETF and gold stocks, are destined to cross the cycle. So I personally think that if I have 100 yuan to allocate in this situation, I will allocate at least 10 to 20 yuan to gold stocks, agricultural stocks and related assets. " He said.
focus on investment opportunities in the Hong Kong market
It is worth noting that Wang Hongyuan is very optimistic about investment opportunities in the Hong Kong market. He believes that "Hong Kong may be China's main board in the future. The key is that there is no biggest risk - registration system risk, so we will vigorously layout Hong Kong stocks."
Wang Hongyuan pointed out that for investors, the registration system is the biggest risk in China's stock asset allocation. The registration system reform has relaxed the enterprise access and tightened the delisting standards, but the plate differentiation of the registration system may increase, and investors are more likely to choose poor stocks, or even stocks that may be delisted in the future. This means that the registration system puts forward higher requirements for the screening of targets and the judgment of enterprise quality, and there will be a number of fairy stocks similar to those in the Hong Kong stock market in the future.
"So what assets in China do not have the risk of registration system now? The answer is Hong Kong stocks. Because Hong Kong stocks themselves are the equity of registration system and the company of registration system. Qianhai open source fund vigorously developed Hong Kong stocks in 2015. When there were 100 Hong Kong stock funds in the market, there were 26 Qianhai open source funds. In the future, we will strengthen our layout in this direction." Wang Hongyuan said frankly.
He further said, "On the one hand, China concept shares with a market value of more than US $1 trillion have the opportunity to be listed in Hong Kong; on the other hand, the implementation of full circulation of shares can enable more Chinese enterprises to list in Hong Kong and expand the source of Hong Kong stock market. In the past, some H shares did not circulate in Hong Kong, so they accounted for a small proportion in the international index. Now it is time to let these H shares circulate in Hong Kong, so as to improve their international competitiveness At the same time, it promotes Chinese shareholders holding H shares to make a lot of financing in the Hong Kong market. In fact, it still finances China's real economy. "
Qianhai open source fund organization customer online strategy meeting
Meeting time: July 7, 2020
(actually, opinions were issued on July 6 and explained at the meeting on July 7)
(Note: This article is compiled by recording and has not been reviewed by me)
Speaker: Wang Hongyuan, CO chairman of Qianhai open source fund
Wang Hongyuan: dear friends and leaders, good morning. Today is a special moment because our Chinese stock market hit a new high of more than two years yesterday. Yesterday, I published an article. Many friends called in the evening. First of all, let me clarify that This article is not a simple problem of being bullish and bearish . Let's briefly say these points:
views on the A-share market
is not simply bullish and bearish
first, if only from the traditional value investment, from the perspective of one or two years of global economic fundamentals, it will certainly not be able to support a bull market.
second , however, the global fiscal and monetary stimulus is once in a century. During the financial crisis in 2008, I remember that the then US Treasury Secretary Paulson knelt down on one knee and gave a bunch of roses to the then US House Speaker Pelosi, who is now the speaker of the house of Representatives, and then Congress approved the $700 billion stimulus plan. However, this time, the Treasury secretary did not kneel down on one knee to the speaker of the house of Representatives and the Senate and did not send flowers, but directly passed the US $3 trillion fiscal stimulus policy. We calculated that the US fiscal and monetary policy should basically be about three times the scale of 2008, so it is unprecedented. This is the second premise.
the third is the epidemic. It should be said that it can't pass within a year or two. When will the vaccine come out? People all over the world have been vaccinated. It should be said that it will take more than a year. But we must understand that we will certainly overcome earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and epidemic diseases in the long run of human society. It came from the middle ages, including the Spanish pandemic more than 100 years ago. At that time, under the level of science and technology and medical treatment, mankind can overcome it. So now and in the future, with the global level of science and technology, we will eventually overcome the epidemic. Therefore, every major epidemic disaster often faces a positive opportunity, which we should make clear.
one more thing : even if there is no epidemic in the world, it should be said that the 11 year bull market in the United States is basically coming to an end, and the peak of the global economy is certainly over. However, whether it is one year, two years, three years or five years later, we can be sure that the global economy will recover. Whether it is one year, three years, five years and ten years, it will eventually recover.
Then at this time, there is another thing we have never seen before - the game of great powers. We should not only guard against the negative impact of the big country game, but also see the opportunities brought by the big country game. To put it simply, two examples: first, if there is no big country game between the United States and China, some stimulus policies such as U.S. infrastructure construction will not come out. Second, let's think about it. Without the pressure exerted by the United States on China and the big country game, our financial external development and our Hainan free trade zone will not come out so soon. Therefore, the big country game may bring not only negative effects, but also positive effects, which makes the two countries more modest and cautious.
So let's think about when was the golden age in the United States? The golden age of the United States was after World War II and before the disintegration of the Soviet Union, because in this process, due to the existence of the Soviet bloc, the United States was modest and cautious, mainly showing its positive side to the outside world, countries around the world and its own people. On the contrary, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, he was the pride of the victor. Instead, he began to be arrogant. He launched several wars, including the Iraq war, the two Iraq wars, the Afghanistan war, the Yugoslav war, including the war on terrorism, and so on. He often imposed sanctions on the state. Therefore, on the contrary, the end of the cold war is the beginning of the decline in the comprehensive national strength of the United States, because no one can question him. Therefore, at this time, the strategic game between China and the United States is not all negative, but may also be positive, which promotes China and the United States to be more conscientious. First, internal unity. Second, some policies that can be pushed out in the past five years and 10 years may be pushed out in three months and two months, so it also has a positive impact on the game between the two countries.
based on these points, we believe that : the global fundamentals are very poor. We certainly do not support the traditional value investment theory within a year or two, but the second liquidity is the abundance once in a century. The third epidemic is difficult to end within a year or two, but mankind will eventually overcome the epidemic. Fourth, economically, it is difficult to say when the global economy will recover, but in the end, the global economy will recover. So at this time, we bet on the world's largest economies. Who will take the lead in recovery? This is what we used to call crossing the cycle. China's stock market was originally at a low level. The second is that the U.S. stock market is a good variety for the next recovery after a substantial decline of 40% from the high level.
the fifth is the big country game . The outcome of the big country game must be arranged in advance according to the prediction of different results. If, as we think, the forces of China and the United States change one after another, and the United States loses China's growth, we need to make an early layout. The RMB, the first sovereign currency among the world's major powers to take the lead in recovery, rose sharply yesterday, right? And the country's assets are China's stock assets. Therefore, it is said that according to the game of big countries and the next economic recovery, it is completely worth layout from the perspective of virtual in 5-10 years, but it is not worth layout from the traditional value investment theory. What should we do in this case?
solution to the problem of RMB overvaluation of "barrier lake"
What era are we facing now? Now not only China, but also the world is in the process of fiscal and monetary stimulus. China is one of the most rational and responsible countries. Since the outbreak of the epidemic this year, China has the least fiscal stimulus and "printing money".
In fact, the voices in the United States are not just what trump and his government officials have said in public and what we can see. Wall Street still makes decisions independently. They are mainly institutional investors. Everyone knows very well that China is the most responsible country in the global money printing, so China's currency value should be the most stable in this process. Of course, they mean: for example, people used to think that China's RMB was overvalued due to state control, but after this epidemic and the fiscal and monetary stimulus policies of various countries, they think that the potential barrier lake has decreased significantly due to the de facto foreign exchange control system.
For example, he thought that China's RMB was overvalued by 15%. After this epidemic, Wall Street believes that the degree of overvaluation of China's RMB has been less than 10%, that is, the barrier lake of overvaluation of RMB has been solved slowly. If China can take the lead in recovering in the future, it is possible that the RMB does not have to depreciate. According to the mainstream opinion, for example, Wall Street believes that the RMB is overvalued by 15%, which has reached 10% after this time. If China is the first to recover next time, it may be overestimated by only 5%. If the United States continues to tear China apart and the United States becomes worse at this time, if the dollar needs to be devalued by 5%, won't our RMB be overestimated? Well, the biggest obstacle to the internationalization of RMB, the game between big countries and the global allocation of Chinese assets is that they are worried that the value of RMB has not fallen to the expected price according to the free floating exchange rate. Considering these factors, it is different, Some long-term bad news is gradually narrowing or disappearing.
the future of Hainan free trade zone and securities stocks
Hainan free trade zone has two special functions. A separate customs zone is equivalent to a special separate customs zone. It is a free trade zone and a duty-free zone. Second, it is a financial center.
The second thing is the merger of banking and securities licenses. This is to adapt to the game between China and the United States. We can't close the door when we open the financial license to the outside world. The total assets and operating income of a Goldman Sachs company are equal to the sum of China's securities industry. We can't compete. In an economy as large as the United States, there are six major securities companies. In 2008, two of them closed down, serving not only the country, but also the world. He called 4 + 3.4 traditional securities companies and two or three online securities companies.
I don't have any news. It's purely a theoretical analysis. The last thing that may be implemented is to transfer several major securities companies to several major banks. Which securities companies will be assigned to these six big banks in the future? It can be understood that in 10 years, the situation facing China may be equivalent to the current securities industry in the United States. I estimate that in 10 years, the top 10 securities companies in China, the top 10 Chinese and foreign securities companies, plus two or three Internet securities companies, I estimate that the proportion in the securities industry should reach 60% - 70%, or even more than 70% - 80%. So a large number of small and medium-sized securities companies may be in the process of extinction or merger as long as they can not enter the top 10. Therefore, I personally think the brokerage stock is a treasure hunt process.
Therefore, in the process of the strategic game between China and the United States, NASDAQ is now an enemy occupied area for Chinese companies, our Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges are liberated areas, and Hong Kong is actually called a guerrilla area. Then when the Sci-tech Innovation Board was opened last year, since China's stock market, the country's top leaders officially announced the opening of the sci-tech innovation board, This is the first time since the stock market was announced by the top leader. What does this mean? It explains the concept and logic of the launch of the science and innovation board, which is the central government's preparation for the worst outcome of the Sino US financial war.
A week or two ago, at the Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development Co.Ltd(600663) forum in Shanghai, vice premier Liu he had a written speech, which specifically said that China will be two circular economies in the future, one is called "China's internal cycle" and the second is "the cycle of interaction and linkage between China and the world". Now we should do a good job in the coexistence of these two cycles. "China's internal circular economy" and "China's economic cycle integrated with the world at home and abroad", these two cycles should exist at the same time.
What's the meaning of this? That is, the central government has already made strategic decisions on many things from the highest level. The essence of the launch of the Shanghai Science and innovation board is to make the rules of the capital market in our Liberated Areas level with those in enemy occupied areas and guerrilla areas, fully circulate the registration system, and allow unprofitable companies in the new economy to go on the market. For Chinese stocks listed overseas with red chips, a threshold is set, which is roughly 200 billion market value and 10-20 billion market value. However, for these enterprises that are in major scientific and technological innovation or business model innovation, for those listed overseas, such as hundreds of Chinese concept companies in the United States, Maybe thirty or forty companies meet the conditions for returning to the science and innovation board or the future gem, but their market value accounts for about $1.5 trillion in the United States, accounting for more than 80% of the market value. Therefore, from the perspective of overseas Chinese evacuation strategy, these 30 or 40 companies will return to Hong Kong. The first part, like Ali and JD, will return to Hong Kong, and the second part, like Ali, JD, Baidu and Tencent, will certainly return to the science and innovation board or gem. It has opened up the markets in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and the United States.
Personally, I think the central government has paid unprecedented attention to the capital market. From financial security and China US strategic game to how to do in the worst case, we have made strategic preparations, but this emphasis refers to the rules of the game, that is, the rules of the game are reliable to international management, and the registration system is fully circulated, not the point of the index. After the turmoil in 2015 and 2016, I personally believe that the top level has abandoned the regulation of index points. 3000, 2800 and 3200 are no different for regulators, but the rules of the game are in line with international standards, which can have a prosperous and stable market, make the rules of the game in line with international practices, and make the rules of the game more able to protect the interests of investors.
In the future, savings funds can be converted into direct financing, reduce the proportion of indirect financing, increase the proportion of direct financing, and reduce the overall debt ratio of China as a whole. Because China is the most qualified country in the world, because we have a large amount of savings and the largest global savings rate and amount. Let's calculate the relationship between numerator and denominator. If some of these savings can be converted into direct financing through the capital market, China's overall debt ratio will be greatly reduced, because it is now 250 and 280. In the west, it is impossible to use the traditional way, but China can soon drop to 160 and 180 through various changes in numerator and denominator. Then, if China's total national debt ratio drops from above 250 and 280 to 150 and 180, the debt risk of the whole Chinese country will actually be a little lower. In this process, a strong capital market is needed, but a strong capital market does not mean to keep a point. Because it has suffered from this hardship, it is a change of the rules of the game and pays more attention to the long term, Value the fairness of the market.
We will transition to the second part of the central government's decision-making. The first part is the Sino US game, which is China's capital market. Therefore, our science and innovation version launched our bank to give brokerage licenses. If there is no Sino US game, it may not be so fast. Therefore, as people in our industry, especially after the epidemic this year, the real economy should be very poor, So we joke that people who fry stocks are the luckiest. The first is the opportunities and challenges brought by the Sino US game to China's capital market, and the second is China's strategic layout and countermeasures.
fiscal and monetary policy expectations
In this US presidential election in November, Trump's fiscal stimulus policy, including his influence on monetary policy, is actually the flood after the election. It has nothing to do with him. He won't care about it. He only cares before the election. Therefore, all kinds of fiscal, monetary and economic policies in the United States have completed their work in one battle, which is unprecedented, It is 3-5 times that of 2008, at least more than 3 times the stimulus.
However, China, because of our top leadership, I personally think it is prepared according to the cycle of 10-15 years. Whether it is fiscal or monetary stimulus policy, there are so many tools in the toolbox. More tools are used this year, less in the future, less in this year, more in the future, and China has no election pressure. Therefore, China's policy this time: first, stabilize your footing, The intensity of fiscal stimulus to monetary policy has not only been far lower than expected in the past few months, but will also be significantly lower than the expectations of the capital market in the next year or two. This is my first point.
Second, the overall idea of deleveraging is firm and unchanged, including the new regulations on asset management. At most, it is the real people and the time to reach the standard is a little slower. However, in this direction, China's macro total debt ratio is from 250-280% to 150-180%. The general direction of the central leadership is firm and unchanged.
Third, I would rather endure the short-term pain than make a big compromise on these issues. No matter as a real estate developer or market, never expect that the central government will relax the regulation of the real estate market due to some short-term fluctuations.
Well, because everyone understands that this Central Committee is based on such a long-term plan for 10-15 years, he does not choose first like trump, and then ignore the flood. Of course, the fourth point also includes the capital market. What is needed is a strong, fair, open and fair capital market that does not play tricks. It can play a role in the process of reducing the total macro leverage by 100 points throughout the country, and will never endorse a certain technical point.
The most important thing is the opportunity to integrate with international practices. In the past, we used to adopt the examination and approval system, and in the future, we will adopt the registration system. In the near future, we will strengthen the listing of unlisted companies in China, including the efforts of spin off listing, the return of overseas Chinese stocks, and hundreds of sellers such as the new third board. In the future, China will not lack stocks. No matter how much money residents are willing to leave in the capital market, there must be no shortage of stocks, which is certain.
So let's turn to the third question, what about the capital market? In fact, I have reported to all leaders earlier: from the traditional fundamentals, the global fundamentals do not have the conditions to support the bull market. Well, China is basically
