Looking back on the A-share market last week, the first half of the week saw a shock correction in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and there was a shock rebound in the second half of the week. The industry and concept plates were rotated and accelerated, the market hot spots were difficult to grasp, and the difficulty of investment operation was further increased. It is noteworthy that the short-term trading volume has not continued to expand, and there are still no signs of major capital changes and policy expectations.
As mentioned by Ping An Securities, under the background of the phased shrinkage of transactions in the two markets, the current market structural market is becoming more and more intense. With the approaching deadline for the disclosure of the third quarterly report at the end of the month, next, the long and short sides of the market may still play a game mainly around the performance . Companies with good performance may welcome the continuous attention of the market.
In terms of the future market, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) pointed out that the market as a whole may still be in a pattern of range shock and rapid rotation, and the policy direction may be gradually clear . We maintain the proposal of “more balanced allocation” in the early stage; The upstream price peaked locally, and the configuration gradually began to adjust from the middle and upstream cycle to the middle and downstream industries. In the medium term, the partial growth style may still be an important direction in the medium term. In the short term, attention should be paid to controlling the rhythm of manufacturing growth, while the consumption growth track with pessimistic early expectations and large decline may gradually come to the end of adjustment. It is suggested to select stocks from bottom to top.
However, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said the situation had changed positively. Since October, the market trading volume has shrunk rapidly, and the all a trading volume has shrunk to about 60% of the high point at the end of September. Investors have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for policy changes. In fact, there have been positive changes in the current situation. The “double control and double limit” policy is being adjusted, there are positive signals in the real estate industry, the steady growth policy is working, and the external international environment is also improving. We believe that the fourth quarter of is still full of opportunities .
In addition, Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) believes that due to changes in economic structure, it will be normal for high-quality companies to increase their relative valuation range compared with the past platform position. From the perspective of valuation, we believe that the re convergence of valuation differentiation of A-Shares may be unsustainable, and the relative valuation of fund heavy positions has basically hit the bottom and began to rebound. In the future, it is suggested to look for investment opportunities for the most growing companies in the field of “domestic demand, science and technology and green” under the new development pattern and industrial trend.
West China strategy mentioned that it focused on the high prosperity direction of the third quarterly report. In the context of rising global energy prices, inflation in major overseas economies may last longer than expected. Different from overseas, China’s inflation pressure mainly comes from structural inflation under supply contraction. In the face of the pressure of “quasi stagflation” in the economy, the policies of ensuring supply, stabilizing price and electricity price reform are frequent, and the local campaign “carbon reduction” is accelerated and corrected. recently, there has been a marginal easing in China US relations. China has ushered in many important meetings at the end of the year. Under the expectation of policy dividends, the market risk appetite is expected to improve, and A-Shares are still in the “available period” .
In terms of operational strategy, the agency further pointed out that in the direction, suggested “taking advantage of the trend” and focusing on the high prosperity direction of the third quarterly report . In October, it is one of the important strategies to welcome the intensive disclosure period of the third quarterly report of the enterprise, select high boom stocks and avoid thunderstorm stocks. In terms of industry allocation, it is suggested to focus on industries that benefit from the “steady growth” policy and are expected to have a high prosperity in the third quarter, such as “new energy, new energy vehicles”; The theme investment focuses on “expanding the connotation of carbon neutralization (green industry)”.
In addition, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that suggested to continue to focus on industries with low fundamentals and sufficient pre valuation correction . ① Focus on the midstream manufacturing industry suppressed by cost and supply chain problems in the early stage, such as lithium battery, machinery, auto parts, etc.
(II) gradually add some basic consumption sectors, such as Baijiu, food, cosmetics, tax-free and hotels, which are expected to return to a reasonable level.
③ Some pharmaceutical industries in good operating condition but greatly adjusted by transaction or policy factors in the early stage, such as medical services, pharmaceutical equipment, etc.
④ The science and technology sector benefits from semiconductor equipment and special chips promoted by localization logic.
⑤ Under the background that the repressive factors have improved but have not been completely eliminated, it is suggested to pay attention to the valuation repair opportunities of Hong Kong stock Internet leaders after the impact of extremely pessimistic expectations.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) believes that policy is relatively “vacuum period”. It is recommended to configure “undervalued + X” varieties in combination with industry prosperity and valuation. Based on ① the general liquidity gate next year, the Fed turns to tightening; ② Next year, A-Shares will enter a downward profit cycle, and the A-share equity market is unlikely to be a big year in the coming year. However, this round of “quasi stagflation” is dominated by the supply side. The goal of the central bank’s monetary policy will still be to lower the real loan interest rate and it will be difficult to tighten. Combined with our judgment that China’s broad liquidity saw the bottom area in the fourth quarter of this year, the probability of A-share systemic risk is still small.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) further analysis, referring to historical comparable periods, it is recommended to configure “undervalued value + X” varieties in combination with valuation and industry prosperity: (1) undervalued value + steady growth of infrastructure (cement / energy storage / wind power); (2) Reasonable valuation + ballast stone for domestic demand (automobile and new energy vehicle); (3) Undervalued value + performance month on month improvement (Tourism / hotel).
