Looking back on Thursday's A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had twists and turns, and the stock index showed signs of differentiation. After the Shanghai stock index opened high, it first fluctuated upward, and then dived in the afternoon. At the end of the day, it began to fluctuate and rebound, and turned red; The gem index rose and fell rapidly at the beginning of the market, and also weakened further in the afternoon. Although it rebounded at the end of the market, it failed to turn red.
As mentioned in Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) , the main battlefield of funds began to transfer to the Shanghai stock market on Thursday. At present, the seesaw effect between blue chips and themes in the market is obvious, and the structural market is still deepening. In terms of operation, light index, heavy individual stocks, bargain hunting, pay attention to the opportunities of finance, new materials, traditional energy, new energy, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, information technology, bottom stocks and over falling stocks, and avoid the make-up risk of high-level strong stocks and high-priced stocks of traditional luxury consumption.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities said that the Shanghai index fluctuated upward and successfully broke through the 20 day moving average. The turnover of the two cities fell slightly below trillion, but the net inflow of funds from the North exceeded 10 billion, boosting market confidence. It is expected that the market is expected to shake and strengthen after stabilizing. Pay attention to the rotation rhythm of the plate and the change of volume energy. In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, household appliances, electrical equipment, TMT and other industries.
In terms of the future market, Huaxin securities mentioned that in terms of the short cycle, the three major A-share indexes still have the basis to continue to rebound. However, in order to effectively break through the upward trend and form a trend market, the transaction amount of the two markets needs to be effective above 1.2 trillion. At present, there are such characteristics as real and false breakthroughs at a probability of 1 trillion, especially for the current liquidity, which is the core variable supporting the operation of the market, We expect that the future liquidity is worth investors' attention under the background of the acceleration of government special bond issuance in November, tax payment and the expiration of a large amount of MLF in November and December. The macro liquidity at the end of the year will not be as broad as expected.
At the same time, the agency believes that the current employment situation in the United States has met taper's conditions, and taper will be announced with great probability at the FOMC meeting on November 4. Therefore, we believe that there are no relatively broad conditions for the probability of macro liquidity environment. investors are advised to pay attention to the "Mao" series targets with valuation advantages and gradually withdraw from the "Ning" target .
In addition, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) said that the market's uncertainty about future expectations is rising in the short term . Meanwhile, with the rise of upstream costs, power rationing and other factors, there are also concerns about the expectation of enterprise profit growth in the third quarter. Therefore, the market lacks trend market in the short term, and the volatility of individual stocks and industries is large.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that China's current economic fundamentals are good, and all macro indicators are in a reasonable range, which provides a guarantee for the independence of monetary policy, and the market liquidity is expected to maintain a reasonable abundance and benefit the growth style. The tone of "ensuring supply and stabilizing price" is difficult to change, and the fluctuation risk of individual stocks with high valuation in the cycle sector may increase. It is recommended to deal with it carefully.
In addition, the agency further analyzed that the volume and price of real estate sales data in September fell together or mainly due to the tightening of financial credit at the end of the year. The policy will still adhere to the bottom line of "no speculation in real estate", but at the same time, it has also recently stressed to ensure the stable development of the real estate industry and promote the stable release of rigid demand. The orderly release of real estate credit in the fourth quarter may ease the shortage of funds for real estate enterprises, The probability of systemic risk caused by Evergrande's debt problem is also low. Overall, leading enterprises with better balance sheets in the real estate sector still have a strong moat .
In terms of operational strategy, Guosheng securities mentioned that the rise and fall of in October is highly related to Q3 performance . According to the statistical results of the past decade, Q3 performance has a very strong explanatory power for the rise and fall of the stock market in October. A-share listed companies are divided into five groups from high to low according to the rise and fall in October. From the results, there is a significant correlation between the profit growth rate (whether median or average) and the relative increase of stock price. In contrast, the explanation of profitability (such as ROE) indicators is general.
By year, from 2010 to now, the group with the highest performance growth rate has outperformed the group with the lowest performance growth rate. That is, during the disclosure window period of the third quarterly report, the importance of molecular end pricing has increased significantly. According to the disclosed results and analysts' forecast data, the directions of high growth or higher than expected performance in the third quarterly report mainly include nonferrous metals, steel and basic chemicals in the upstream resource sector, as well as communications and military industry in the growth sector.
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) believes that entered the disclosure period of the third quarterly report in October, and high performance growth and valuation switching have become the short-term focus of the market .
Focus on the following main lines: the first is the new energy sector. The new energy industry is in the stage of rapid increase in penetration, upward industrial trend and global policy resonance. With high performance and strong certainty of growth, it is one of the long-term tracks with high prosperity and high success.
The second is the financial sector. The valuation of the financial sector is low. With the improvement of fundamentals, the cost performance of allocation may tend to rise.
The third is the consumer sector. The consumer sector made a lot of adjustments in the third quarter, and the overvalued value has been digested. From a long-term perspective, we are optimistic about the layout value of high-quality targets. The fourth is to pay attention to the investment opportunities of specialized, special and new subdivided leaders.
