Looking back on the A-share market last week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets continued the range shock trend, the amplitude gradually narrowed, the trading volume remained fluctuating around trillion, the hot spots lacked sustainability, and the market profit-making effect was general.
As stated by Anxin securities, the rest of the current market is coming to an end in terms of space, and there is little room for further downward. At present, the market is still in a period of time. The structural bull under the asset shortage is still the medium-term trend. With the rapid decline of commodity prices represented by coal and steel and the continuous transmission of price rise pressure to the downstream, the profitability of the middle and downstream links is facing marginal improvement. The main line of A-share market is expected to change from high prosperity (Nanjing portfolio) + upstream (cycle) to high prosperity (Nanjing portfolio) + downstream (consumption).
Anxin securities further mentioned the concept of maintaining appropriate balance. High end manufacturing with high prosperity continues to be the basic configuration; Some additional consumer goods with reasonable valuation and improved prosperity; Some financial real estate with low valuation and sufficient risk release; Shrink the allocation of cyclical stocks, and only cyclical products with hard demand support can have investment value.
In terms of the future market, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities believes that at present, A-Shares are at the starting point of style switching, and undervalued blue chips will be the main direction of configuration . Specifically, the brokerage sector experienced secondary growth driven by wealth management, and the sustainability of the industry’s benefits exceeded expectations. In the new energy sector, the high boom direction is still scarce, especially BIPV, green power and other directions with high valuation and cost performance. Big consumption is accelerating the bottom, and recommend cost-effective, negative and expected downgrade Baijiu, pig, auto parts and other cost-effective plates. In the banking and real estate industry, the bank’s third quarterly results are expected to exceed expectations and have high cost performance. In addition, the margin of real estate credit policy is loose, and the profit expectation of the sector will gradually improve.
Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) believes that should still maintain the long thinking. Due to the obvious plate differentiation and the coexistence of structural opportunities and risks , short-term positions need to improve the risk awareness of the difference in the operation rhythm of the plate, grasp the market characteristics of high-low switching, and avoid excessive chasing up and killing down. It is suggested to pay attention to the medium and short-term low absorption opportunities of financial stocks led by insurance; And continue to take new energy as the main line and pay attention to the trading opportunities of make-up and rebound; For resource stocks and energy stocks, it is suggested to grasp the price difference in the short term and reduce expectations. It is recommended to focus on positions in the middle line, and choose the opportunity to absorb low value blue chips related to finance and consumption.
In the macro aspect, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) strategy research report said that the recent marginal changes at the policy level continue to be positive, such as the upgrading of response policies to ensure supply and favorable price, such as cracking down on coal futures speculation and promoting the release of high-quality coal production capacity, the correction of China’s commodity futures price, and it is expected that the upstream price pressure faced in the future may continue to ease; On the other hand, the statement of the regulatory authorities on real estate also partially alleviated the market’s concern that the spread of credit risk and the decline of the real estate industry may cause excessive drag on the economy. The upstream price adjustment is beneficial to the middle and downstream sectors; In the medium term, the partial growth style may still be an important direction in the medium term. The consumption with pessimistic early expectations and large decline may gradually come to the end of adjustment. It is suggested to select stocks from bottom to top.
In terms of operation strategy, Zheshang strategy said that since October, the logic of bullish late autumn market has been continuously strengthened, and the positive signals of the market are also increasing . Value stocks took the lead in repairing at the end of September, and began to perform in depth after going to the medium range. In the follow-up, we can pay attention to the opportunities in subdivided fields such as banks, household appliances and securities companies. However, it should be noted that based on the significant correlation between value stocks and the real economy, the current round of value stock market is to repair rebound rather than reverse; Semiconductor leads the scientific innovation board. Driven by the third quarterly report, the bull market began to become dominant, actively grasp the gold investment window under the main line of domestic substitution, and pay attention to opportunities in subdivided fields such as equipment and materials, design and MCU.
Key issues on industry allocation strategy in the fourth quarter. Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) mentioned that if the complex macro factors are diluted, Q4 every year, although the macro environment and policy background may be different, the funds will start to layout in advance at this stage, and the direction of high prosperity in the next year is expected. The direction of high prosperity in the next year can be carried out along two clues : ① continue the direction of high prosperity: Here we focus on photovoltaic, military industry, lithium mine and semiconductor equipment; ② The direction of dilemma reversal: Here we focus on tourism, traditional cars, pork and industrial Internet.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that in the short term, focused on industries whose quarterly reports exceeded expectations (e.g. new power, transportation, medicine, etc.). Long term, embrace the general direction and fight short with long . Continue to bargain hunting layout, the core line of high-quality growth represented by “specialization and innovation” and “little giant” of science and innovation. 1) High end manufacturing (semiconductor industry chain, military industry chain, etc.), 2) new energy chain (new energy materials, lithium battery equipment, new energy vehicle industry chain, intelligent driving, etc.), 3) aiot (computer, communication, electronics), 4) Life Sciences (biomedicine, medical devices, medical services, seeds, etc.).
