Looking back on Monday's A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a rebound upward pattern as a whole. The stock index opened low and walked high, out of the pulse rising trend; The gem index and Shenzhen Composite Index fluctuated near the pressure level after they opened directly high. With the new energy sectors such as energy storage, the index rose strongly, and finally the three major stock indexes closed at the positive line.
As mentioned in Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , the market structure is still continuing, and the funds are obviously returning to high prosperity tracks such as wind power, photovoltaic and new energy vehicles. The core assets are sought after by the funds, and the phosphorus chemical industry rebounded sharply, indicating that the main funds have not retreated, and the future rebound is still worth looking forward to. In addition, some funds began to tap undervalued industry stocks with gradually clear policy expectations, such as real estate, insurance, etc. With the gradual disclosure of the third quarterly report of listed companies, the expected improvement of performance growth will become an effective judgment index. You can choose the opportunity to participate in the adjustment of full value blue chip and growth track.
In terms of the future market, Huaxin Securities said that the market style has been switching, especially the weakening of cycle varieties, and the allocation value of undervalued blue chips is more prominent, it is recommended that investors guard against the risk of index fluctuation, and the allocation angle is gradually inclined to undervalued blue chips .
Dongguan Securities believes that the current pressure on economic growth is large, but the central bank maintains reasonable and abundant liquidity, coupled with the significant net inflow of funds from the north, which effectively boosts market confidence. It is expected that the market is expected to strengthen . It is suggested to pay attention to the plate rotation and energy change, and pay attention to the opportunities of finance, household appliances, food and beverage, electrical equipment, TMT, new energy and other industries.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned that at present, the overall peg level of A-Shares is at the historical median level, the performance valuation matching is reasonable, the fundamentals are still supported, and the policy and liquidity environment are relatively friendly. in the long term, the upward trend of shock is expected to continue, and the shock fluctuation and structural market will continue in the medium and short term .
In terms of industry, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that first, in the medium and long term, the new energy and science and technology growth sector is expected to maintain high prosperity and high growth rate under the background of policy support and upward industrial cycle, the support of performance prosperity is more solid, and the impact of medium and short-term economy and liquidity is relatively small. It is suggested to continue pay attention to lithium mines, photovoltaic High end equipment manufacturing, semiconductors, military industry and other key directions continue to tap high-quality targets .
Second, the position of the consumer sector is relatively safe after the early valuation adjustment. In addition, the forward-looking indicators reflect the signal of the initial recovery of the service industry. Without the outbreak of a large-scale epidemic, consumption has the space and power to recover in the fourth quarter and the first half of next year . It is suggested to combine the cost performance and leading attributes of individual stocks, make an appropriate layout on the left side and gradually intervene, Focus on food and beverage, household appliances, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery.
However, it is worth noting that the agency further said: 1) China's consumption is constrained by multiple factors such as residents' income expectation, consumption tendency and the decline of real estate cycle. The recovery process may have twists and turns, which is not overnight. The intervention in the consumption sector needs to lengthen the cycle, control positions and select leaders, And continuously pay attention to the marginal change of performance expectation for subsequent adjustment. 2) It is suggested to temporarily avoid the offline service consumption related sectors that are significantly affected by the short-term epidemic dynamics, such as tourism, cinema, catering and so on.
However, Aijian Securities pointed out that the market is still poised within the shock range, and the upward power is limited. It is expected that the market will still look for space downward. The repeated economic recovery and the uncertainty of US dollar monetary policy have increased the uncertainty of the market. The market mentality is cautious, the risk appetite is reduced, and the trading attribute of the market is also weakening. Therefore, we still need to wait patiently. At the same time, enter the centralized disclosure period of the third quarterly report, and pay attention to the risk of performance fluctuation. Although there are still trading opportunities, there are also hidden risks. Therefore, we should focus on safety and caution as the primary principle. Pay attention to the control of position and income expectation.
From the perspective of opportunities, the agency further analyzed that had more hot switching signs of consumption and technology in the early stage . From the perspective of driving force, it is expected that there will be more meetings in the fourth quarter in the future, and the policy opportunities deserve attention. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the performance risk brought by the third quarterly report.
In terms of operational strategy, YueKai Securities said that from the perspective of the three quarterly reports, the performance of the growth sector represented by new energy is still bright, the institutional funds are still heavily loaded, and even the overweight sector shows that they are optimistic about it, the allocation logic has not been falsified, superimposing the expectation that the monetary policy and credit policy will shift to marginal easing in the fourth quarter, At that time, the relatively loose liquidity environment is conducive to the performance of high growth sectors, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the high boom and high-end manufacturing direction represented by new energy and the investment opportunities of securities companies and other sectors that are relatively stagnant in the early stage of boom diffusion .
Guosheng Securities believes that the short-term focus on the third quarterly report and the medium-term additional allocation of value shares. First, the important feature of "under profit and on roe" is that it relies on the high growth of molecular end to digest the valuation, and the rise and fall of stock price in October is highly related to the third quarterly report, continues to be optimistic about the upstream energy chain with obvious relative performance advantages (petrochemical, natural gas, oil transportation and oil service) and the growth cycle (small metal / aluminum, chemical fiber, phosphorus and fluorine chemical industry).
Second, the trend of unilateral dominance in growth has turned. In the next quarter, the trend change of (wide currency and tight credit) - > (dual stability of currency and credit) is relatively certain. for the proposal of maintaining a gradual increase in value shares , the first recommendation is: banks, electricity, food, automobiles, airlines / airports, and the left layout of Hong Kong stock Internet leaders.
Third, new infrastructure development direction , focusing on new energy infrastructure (scenery, energy storage, UHV), domestic industrial software, etc.
Galaxy securities mentioned that the market has no systematic opportunities for the time being, and the market rotates rapidly. It is suggested to strengthen defense. In terms of the industry, real estate era has gradually gone away, and entered the "double carbon era" in the fourth quarter of 2020, which is the most certain opportunity this year and in the future. The second half of October is the intensive period of formal disclosure of the third quarterly report. It is suggested to find high-quality listed companies with good performance in the third quarterly report. Optimistic: 1) long term growth opportunities for photovoltaic and new energy vehicles; 2) The short-term release policy risk of coal, and the bull market trend of resources such as phosphorus, silicon and fluorine chemical industry remains unchanged; 3) Consumer goods fell sharply in the early stage, and there is a rebound momentum in the short term. It still needs to wait for the industry to return to the bull market.
