Looking back on Tuesday's A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock adjustment pattern as a whole. The three major A-share indexes opened high across the board, gradually fell back after the sharp pull at the beginning of the session, accelerated the adjustment of the stock index in the afternoon, further dived, and finally closed negative across the board. Among them, the Shanghai index once again fell below the 3600 point integer mark, and the gem index also showed its decline.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , the persistence of hot spots in the market is relatively low, and the plate rotation is gradually carried out. The tentative upward attack of the main indexes on Tuesday failed, but the short-term bull trend has not changed for the time being. In terms of operation, investors can choose medium and low positions to participate in the rotation speculation of market hot spots. They should not blindly chase high. They can wait for the market to effectively break through the suppression of the upper moving average, and then gradually increase their positions. If the index turns down, they will reduce their positions accordingly.
In addition, Dongguan Securities believes that the stock index fluctuated and callback on Tuesday, and there are still repeated around 3600 points, but the trading and investment in the two cities remained active. North facing funds bought net for 6 consecutive days, boosting market confidence. It is expected that the market is expected to rebound in stabilizing, and pay attention to the rotation rhythm of the plate and the change of volume and energy. In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, electrical equipment, chemical industry, TMT and other industries.
As for the future, Guosheng Securities said that the structured market will last for a long time, and the consumption camp is expected to replace the cycle weight and become a new main line. Industries with high prosperity and improved prosperity need close attention. Military civilian integration and high-end manufacturing have been fully adjusted, and the probability rate has resumed its upward trend; The current round of epidemic situation is weak. When the inflation rate picks up, the prosperity of the consumer sector is expected to usher in marginal improvement, which deserves special attention.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) pointed out that the recent rapid rotation of the plate and the decline of stocks reflect the structural characteristics of "form scattered and spirit not scattered": Although the hot spots rotate rapidly, the hot spots have not spread significantly, and they are still concentrated in the repeated rotation among new energy, rising resources, consumer goods Mao index, military industry, chip, Xinchuang and other science and technology growth stocks, It reflects the allocation idea of focusing on policy and performance boom, and the plate linkage effect of chicken and dog rising to the sky is weakening.
Therefore, the agency further analyzed that under the stock game, the scene of general market rise or general theme rise is difficult to reproduce in the short term. New potential hotspots, such as CPI price rise and other consumption logic or the main line of steady growth, have not taken place. The market hotspots seem to be scattered, and there is still a certain focus in the process. For example, funds are still rotating between mainstream sectors, In the game market where individual stocks fall more and rise less, pay more attention to the bottom-up individual stock opportunities of the mainstream sector.
It is worth noting that Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that foreign capital allocation may become the main line of the market. Since October, the RMB has continued to strengthen. On October 21-22, the inflow to the North exceeded 10 billion yuan for two consecutive days, showing signs of acceleration. If the inflow is accelerated in the fourth quarter, the net inflow to the north in the whole year is expected to reach 370 billion yuan. Foreign capital inflow helps to build the bottom of the current round of market, form capital support, and pay attention to the effect of foreign capital allocation: first, the style returns to the leader; Second, A-share food and beverage, new power, home appliances, and Hong Kong stock Internet are the key directions of foreign capital allocation.
Cinda Securities said that in the fourth quarter, investors began to pay more attention to valuation. On the one hand, investors looking forward to the next year's economy will raise the requirements for valuation due to the increased uncertainty of long-term profit outlook. There are opportunities for valuation repair in industries with absolute low valuation. On the other hand, after the fourth quarter, investors began to adjust the valuation based on the performance forecast of the next year. At this time, valuation switching is easy to occur.
In terms of operational strategy, Cinda securities further pointed out that (1) the most important logic of the second wave of opportunities in the cycle sector is the super cycle that causes a round of energy inflation under capacity restriction policies such as carbon neutralization. Strategically, some industries with tight production capacity still have structural opportunities, and the market at the tactical annual level is close to the end.
(2) Due to the large difference between the valuation of financial stocks and the market valuation, whether from a pessimistic point of view or an optimistic point of view, the market has allocation value at the end of the year, that is, the so-called advance can be attacked and retreat can be defended.
(3) The growth sector will focus on whether there is a large amount of capacity release at the supply side in 2022. There are valuation switching opportunities at the end of the year, and pay attention to the leaders with more early adjustment.
(4) The easing of current transaction congestion is expected to push up the opportunity for a quarterly rebound in the consumer sector. The reversal of performance comparative advantage may occur in the middle of next year.
Anxin securities mentioned that the main line of A-share market is expected to change from high prosperity (Nanjing portfolio) + upstream (cycle) to high prosperity (Nanjing portfolio) + downstream (consumption). The concept of maintaining appropriate balance in configuration: high-end manufacturing with high prosperity continues to be the basic configuration; Some additional consumer goods with reasonable valuation and improved prosperity; Some financial real estate with low valuation and sufficient risk release; Shrink the allocation of cyclical stocks, and only cyclical products with hard demand support can have investment value.
