Looking back on Wednesday’s A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen continued to show a shock adjustment pattern. In the morning, the three major A-share indexes collectively opened low. At the beginning of the session, there was a wave of pull-up, and then the shock fell back. In the afternoon, the stock index further dived, and went down to near yesterday’s low. It was not until the end of the session that the stock index stabilized and rebounded. Finally, the decline of the three major indexes converged, and the cross star shape was received synchronously. The shock pattern was obvious.
As mentioned in Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) , the current market is still in the operation pattern of interval shocks, plate rotation is more frequent, and the stock game characteristics are significant. It is expected that before the emergence of new leading hot spots, the two cities are more likely to continue to maintain narrow fluctuations. It is suggested to pay close attention to the changes in policy and capital.
In terms of the future market, the agency said that it is expected that the Shanghai index is more likely to fluctuate slightly in the short term, and the gem is more likely to sort out slightly in the short term. investors are advised to pay careful attention to the investment opportunities in new power, agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishing, software services and other industries in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line .
Huajin Securities pointed out that the current market is dominated by the structural market, and the industry remains in rotation. Affected by the tightening of liquidity expectations and the recent sharp fluctuations in bulk commodities, the market will be relatively weak in early November, but it is expected that the impact time is limited. After adjustment, the market will again usher in better trading opportunities. It is suggested to focus on the allocation of some demand side support New energy industry chain, hard science and technology sector, national defense industry and securities companies with good growth .
However, Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) mentioned that the economy still faced great downward pressure in the fourth quarter. At the same time, the economic base and credit expansion were weaker than expected. The internal environment determined that the current market is still a structural market supported by credit structural expansion. according to historical experience, the market is often laid out in advance in the fourth quarter, and the direction of high prosperity in the next year is expected.
At present, the agency further analyzes that maintains the recommendation of in two directions: 1) continue the direction of high prosperity, and first promote photovoltaic, energy storage, wind power, new energy operators and military industry “related to planned economy under economic recession”; 2) The direction of dilemma reversal mainly recommends agriculture, mandatory food, cars and parts, and tourism.
Macroscopically, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the Federal Reserve’s November meeting officially launched the reduction of QE (i.e. taper), and the time point and rhythm are in line with market expectations; Maintain the expression of “temporary inflation”, which is dove relative to market expectations. It is expected that the short-term margin is good for the stock market, but the medium and long-term risks still depend on the follow-up employment and inflation trend. The time points to be concerned about are Q4 this year and Q2 next year.
It is worth noting that Guosheng Securities pointed out that the money supply in the market has accelerated recently, but the long-term and short-term interest rates have increased marginally, and the pace of IPO in the A-share market has warmed up synchronously with fund issuance; In terms of transaction structure, the transaction concentration continued to rise, rebounded to near the 95% quantile again, the transaction differentiation also increased, and the transaction hot spots were further concentrated to new energy, securities companies and electronics. the overall market sentiment is still weakening, and the number of new low-end stocks and vulnerable stocks continues to rise. At the same time, the divergence of “smart money” is strengthened, the foreign trading market continues to flow in, and the leveraged financing sentiment reaches a new low .
In terms of operational strategy, China Post Securities said that the risk appetite is reduced during the market shock period, coupled with the large expectation of price rise of agricultural and animal husbandry products, and the undervalued agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery have better defensive characteristics. The heat of the main line of new energy is not reduced, and the traditional production capacity is difficult to release due to the impact of environmental protection policies. We are optimistic about new energy sources such as wind power and Optoelectronics in the upstream, which is in line with the carbon neutralization policy and the future energy development direction. The industries related to electrical equipment in the midstream and new energy vehicles in the downstream can continue to pay attention. Food and beverage, household appliances and other consumer sectors have fallen sharply since this year, and their recent performance has been strong again. It is recommended to continue to pay attention.
Chuancai securities mentioned that under the background of slowing macroeconomic growth, market risk appetite may decline with it is expected that the market situation in November will be more defensive and policy catalytic . In terms of investment suggestions, first, in the direction of power industry chain , the global “energy revolution” is becoming more and more intense, and the investment in relevant fields is expected to enter a high-speed growth stage. Although the profit margin of the industry is suppressed by “public attribute”, the improvement of “quantity” of the industry chain will drive the overall profit of the industry.
Second, military industry direction . In the long run, during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the equipment was updated with clear increment, and the industry was in a relatively high development momentum in the medium and long term; At the same time, the current allocation proportion of the organization to the military industry is also growing; The recent international situation is complicated, which is easy to form a short-term catalyst for the industry.
Third, the agricultural sector . After the comprehensive victory of the battle against poverty, the focus of “agriculture, rural areas and farmers” will shift to “Rural Revitalization”, which is one of the current work focuses. At the same time, the current global inflation still exists, and food prices are expected to remain high; In addition, as a large agricultural producer and seed user, China’s crop seed industry is a national strategic and basic core industry, and there are certain opportunities for the industry.
