Looking back on the A-share market last week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock adjustment pattern as a whole. The market is still in the stage of structural differentiation and dominated by game opportunities. The periodic sector continues to fall, while the low-level technology sector has a certain performance driven by the meta universe. Due to the rapid rotation of hot spots, it is difficult to operate and the market profit-making effect is general.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , from the perspective of disk, the recent market has shown a sharp correction in the upstream cycle, a shock recovery in downstream consumption, and occasional activity in science and technology topics, which is consistent with the transmission from PPI to CPI. In addition, the quantile difference between the high and low valuation of A-Shares has reached the highest in a decade, and some varieties with the possibility of dilemma reversal are worth noting, For example, online games have regained their attention driven by the meta universe, with the effective control of specific drugs on the epidemic, the marginal impact of the epidemic on consumption is decreasing. Airport shipping, hotel tourism, film and television media and other sectors are also worthy of long-term tracking .
In terms of the future market, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that at present, the allocation between the overall performance and valuation of A-Shares is reasonable, the macro policy and liquidity environment are relatively friendly, in the long term, the upward trend of shock is expected to continue, and the medium and short term will continue the shock fluctuation and structural market . It is recommended that investors continue to pay attention to the main line of performance boom. First, new energy, military industry The second growth direction of Kechuang is some consumer areas that have begun to recover from the bottom weakness.
In addition, in the medium and long term, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) further analysis, new energy, high-end equipment and science and technology growth sector is expected to maintain high prosperity and high growth rate under the background of policy support and upward industrial cycle, and the support of performance boom is more solid . It is relatively less affected by medium and short-term economy and liquidity. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to lithium mines and We will continue to explore high-quality targets in key directions such as photovoltaic, high-end equipment manufacturing, semiconductor and military industry.
However, it should be noted that the agency pointed out that in the short term, the congestion of basic chemical and power equipment and new energy industries has been at a high level, and it is necessary to start to guard against tail risks. The position of the consumer sector is relatively safe after the early valuation adjustment. In addition, the forward-looking indicators reflect the signal of the initial recovery of the service industry. Recently, we also see that the prices of some consumer goods, including condiments, have increased, and the squeeze of the upstream on the profits of the middle and downstream industries may gradually ease in the future. On the premise of no outbreak of large-scale epidemic, consumption has the space and power to recover in the fourth quarter and the first half of next year . It is suggested to combine the cost performance of individual stocks and leading attributes, make an appropriate left layout, gradually intervene, and pay attention to food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, automobile, household appliances and other sectors.
What is more worth mentioning is that Haitong strategy says that investors are very concerned about and look forward to the new year's market every year near the end of the year. Historically, the new year's market is a relatively broad concept, and its start is early and late. There are cross year market every year, but the start-up time is quite different. The reason for the cross year market of A-Shares is that there are few fundamental data of A-Shares at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the capital interest rate usually drops at the beginning of the year, and the risk preference of investors at the beginning of the year is high. From the Perspective of policy cycle, this period is often the time window for major meetings. From September to October this year, the overall market was weak and the broad-based index was in a narrow range. Drawing on historical experience, the cross-year market this year is expected to start earlier.
In the macro aspect, the investment promotion strategy believes that at present, as the liquidity remains stable, the profit-making effect weakens, the incremental capital inflow begins to slow down, the market volatility is significantly reduced, and the market opportunities are decreasing. Due to the downward economic growth, investors' layout ideas bid farewell to the pro cyclical and gradually move towards the non cyclical sector. From the middle and late November of to the Spring Festival of the next year, due to the settlement effect, the market often brewing greater fluctuations. Investors can prepare with both hands. On the one hand, investors can make layout in advance based on the idea of early strength and maintaining or improving the prosperity next year. On the other hand, they also need to be wary of the lack of incremental funds, Partial bad may lead to market adjustment.
In terms of operational strategy, Anxin securities mentioned that suggests investors to actively grasp the layout opportunities in the market shock environment, focus on "Ning portfolio + CPI" and focus on three clues : first, the high prosperity and long-term track represented by "Ning portfolio" (medium and long-term bullish); Second, CPI price rise chain (short-term opportunities for individual stocks to drive the plate); Third, new directions of industries such as meta universe. Focus on industries: wind power, new energy vehicles (lithium batteries, auto parts), food and beverage, agriculture, photovoltaic, semiconductor (high-end chips / equipment), military industry, etc. The theme focuses on metauniverse, carbon neutralization.
In addition, YueKai securities mentioned that for future allocation, it is recommended to allocate the growth + consumption sector in a balanced manner. 1) Stick to the allocation opportunities of high prosperity and high growth sectors. According to the third quarterly report, the margin of the science and technology growth sector has improved significantly. The industries with greater marginal improvement in the growth margin of net profit attributable to the parent are communications / electrical equipment / computers. Among them, the cumulative growth rate of net profit in subdivided industries such as semiconductors, new energy vehicles and photovoltaic equipment is high. With the expected marginal easing of liquidity, the marginal improvement of performance + benefit from the easing of liquidity, The growth sector is expected to usher in a new era. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the direction of high-end manufacturing represented by new energy.
2) Under balanced allocation, focus on tapping high-quality low-end varieties, especially the low absorption opportunities of large consumption sectors with large decline this year. In the third quarter, the overall performance of the large consumer sector was relatively flat. The overall fund positions of the large consumer sector such as leisure services, food and beverage and some optional consumer goods fell first, close to the historical low level. With the arrival of the fourth quarter, PPI is expected to peak and fall, and the cost pressure will be gradually relieved. At that time, consumer profits are expected to stabilize or improve month on month, It is suggested that high-quality large consumption leading companies that pay attention to alpha attribute should add underpriced and high performing sectors for balanced allocation.
