Looking back on Tuesday's A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher, the stock index rose rapidly at the beginning of trading, and then gradually fell back. The Shanghai index once fell and turned green, and the gem index showed a relatively strong performance; In the afternoon, the three major stock indexes made collective efforts to further pull up, and the shock pattern was strong.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , the performance of the index is relatively calm this week. The amplitude of the index has been within 1% for two consecutive days. The Shanghai index fluctuates and consolidates around the annual line and around 3500 points, but the disk themes rotate rapidly, especially the themes in the growth direction. The fourth quarter of is a vacuum period of performance factors, which has become a honeymoon period of current theme speculation. However, pay attention to the rhythm of participation and carefully chase up .
In terms of the future market, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) pointed out that due to the frequent conversion of hot spots in the current market and the strong willingness of OTC funds to wait and see, the characteristics of the stock game between the two cities remain, and all parties in the market are waiting for the time point of change . Whether the stock index can break through the market situation in the future still needs to be boosted by external forces. It is suggested to pay close attention to the changes in policy and capital. It is expected that the short-term slight consolidation of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term slight rise of the gem is more likely. Investors are advised to pay careful attention to the investment opportunities in new energy, new materials and communication industries in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) also said that the current market lacks significant leading hot spots, and the characteristics of stock game are obvious. Whether the stock index can break through the market situation in the future still needs to be boosted by external forces. It is suggested to pay close attention to the changes in policy and capital . It is expected that the Shanghai index is more likely to fluctuate slightly in the short term, and the gem is more likely to rise slightly in the short term.
In terms of allocation, the agency further mentioned that from the cycle to consumption, from the attack of overvalued value to the defense of undervalued value. 1) consumption: gradually taking the expected bottom, recommending the direction of Baijiu / pig / dairy / auto parts with supporting performance and negative expectations. 2) Securities companies / banks: driven by wealth management, securities companies will grow twice and the market continuity will exceed expectations. Bank Q3 profits will continue to rise and asset quality will continue to improve; 3) New energy: the direction of high prosperity is still scarce. New energy vehicles / photovoltaic / green power and other directions are recommended.
Macroscopically, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that the growth rate of industrial production fell due to the impact of dual control of energy consumption and power and production restriction; High frequency data show that the production constraints of the policy on upstream industries are still continuing. On the demand side, China's consumption is once again disturbed by the epidemic, construction investment has declined significantly, and the export delivery value has dropped. The price differentiation between upstream and downstream has increased, the price increase in most industries cannot be hedged, the cost rise, and the cost pressure of public utilities and manufacturing industry has appeared. The cost impact not only brings the profit differentiation of various industries, but also increases the debt pressure of middle and downstream industries. it is expected that under the background of positive policy adjustment, the pressure of industry differentiation and middle and lower reaches may be relieved in the future .
In terms of operational strategy, Shanghai securities mentioned that, combined with the current economic fundamentals, policy direction and market risk preference, new energy, semiconductor, biomedicine and other industries are still the long-term development direction, but the volatility of the equity market is still difficult to recover quickly in the short term, the theme preference will continue to drift, and it will be more difficult to choose the time in the short term. The probability of bond yield maintaining a low level is high, the term interest margin fluctuates widely, and the fixed income varieties are mainly stable. With the improvement of terminal demand and the superposition of carbon neutralization, supply chain and other problems, upstream resources such as oil and gas and non-ferrous metals will continue to benefit. However, we must be vigilant against changes in the economic recovery and policy rhythm of various countries. We suggest that pay attention to the long-term nature of investment in the allocation of large categories of assets and do not be affected by short-term market fluctuations . In addition, grasp the cost performance between assets, dig deep into the safety margin and earn high certainty money.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that the market risk of has been released recently. It is suggested to continue to adopt defensive strategy, wait for a new turn for the better in the market, and properly layout the market at the end of the year . In terms of industry, at present, the market is in a state of no main line and the style rotates rapidly. It is recommended to select high-quality stocks with good fundamentals in the industry. It is recommended to configure: first, we are optimistic about the opportunities related to the construction of new energy, photovoltaic, energy storage and new power system related to the adjustment of energy structure under the general trend of "double carbon" for a long time. Second, look for high-quality stocks with good fundamentals in various industries. Third, semiconductor, military industry, individual consumer goods and other high-profile subdivided industries and theme concepts such as meta universe shall be configured in a balanced manner.
In addition, Dongguan Securities pointed out that in terms of operation, it is recommended to actively layout, pay attention to the investment opportunities of high-quality blue chips, especially blue chips with reasonable valuation and individual stocks with better than expected performance in the third quarterly report . The cyclical sector performed prominently in the third quarterly report, but it will still be affected by commodity price fluctuations in the future; The short-term performance of the fee sector is weak, but with the digestion of valuation, it will gradually enter the time window of midline layout; Chip, photovoltaic, new energy and other growth industries are still sub boom industries with great medium and long-term growth potential. It is recommended to select leading enterprises and actively layout. In terms of industry, it is suggested to pay attention to finance, electrical equipment, new energy, food and beverage, chemical industry, nonferrous metals, automobile, household appliances, TMT and other sectors.
