Looking back on Wednesday’s A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher, fluctuated lower after the opening, and fell for a time; In the afternoon, the market ushered in a counterattack. Growth stocks such as real estate and science and technology made efforts to lead the index to rebound and get out of the small V shape. Unfortunately, it failed to turn red as expected.
As mentioned by Huaxin securities, the market is still in a tangled state, with obvious sawing characteristics, and the market of “one-day tour” of the plate is also common. Therefore, under this cautious and optimistic attitude, we should be more vigilant , beware of stepping back on the 3450-3470 point area again due to the failure of continuous rebound, and the plate should choose the recommended undervalued blue chip, And boom reversal varieties, especially around the industries benefiting from the expected upward CPI .
In terms of the future market, Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) pointed out that from the short-term trading of the index, considering the factors that the index has fallen on Wednesday and the double 11 curse, under the condition of controlling the position, if the index continues to retreat on Thursday, it can be considered to make up moderately at the end of Thursday. Starting from the idea that the structural market is still the main melody, continue to pay attention to the transmission logic from PPI to CPI; Continue to pay attention to the opportunities for repeated rotation of independently controllable sectors such as military industry, Xinchuang technology, precious metals, rare metals and new energy.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) believes that the current stock index continues to consolidate around 3500 points, the intraday amplitude has increased, and the rotation of market hot spot structure is more significant. Whether the stock index can stabilize and recover in the future and regain its upward trend still needs a strong boost from the policy. it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the changes in policies and funds . It is expected that the short-term slight shock of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term slight consolidation of the gem is more likely. It is suggested that investors should wait and see for a short time, and the middle line should continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips.
Macroscopically, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that looking forward, it is expected that the PPI will be year-on-year or close to the inflection point, and the CPI may moderately break through 2% year-on-year. On the one hand, from the base, after the vaccine was launched in November last year, global commodity prices began to rebound driven by the improvement of risk appetite, and the increase of PPI base will help to stabilize the year-on-year rise. On the other hand, from the perspective of new factors, although the price rise may continue, the prices of thermal coal, rebar, aluminum and copper have dropped by 20% – 60% since the peak in October, and the month on month growth rate of PPI slowed down in November. overall, it is expected that PPI is expected to decline year-on-year in November or December .
In terms of operation strategy, Guosheng securities mentioned that the rapid rotation of plates changes the rhythm of plate rotation, and the same thing is that it will be adjusted when it rises too much. After adjustment, if the amount will rebound again . The structured market will continue for a long time, maintain high inflation or rising expectations outside China, and the price rise of various raw materials will continue to be transmitted. We can actively pay attention to the consumer stocks and semiconductor plates that have fully adjusted the published price rise.
Wanlian Securities said that the market has gradually entered the cross year layout stage, and the monetary policy focuses on cross cycle adjustment. Under the timely implementation of the Federal Reserve, the monetary policy focuses on maintaining stability and “focusing on me”. Under macroeconomic pressure and policy constraints, there is a logical lack of seats driving the sharp rise and fall of the market. Under the current economic and policy background, we are still optimistic about the high-end manufacturing industry, and the sectors with high performance growth and strong order certainty will also be continuously recognized by market funds . In the cross year market, the market may be optimistic that the prosperity will continue to rise next year, and the plates with strong growth and order support will be arranged in advance.
The agency further analyzed that under the risk aversion, the cost performance of some value style configurations with good toughness has also been improved. In terms of industry configuration, we can pay attention to: 1) the carbon neutralization main line with high certainty of future order and performance growth and continuous favorable policies, such as photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage, etc; 2) Undervalued blue chip sectors such as non bank finance and banks; 3) The prosperity continued to rise, and there were abundant orders in hand for national defense and military industry.
In addition, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that the upstream profit space may be gradually narrowed, and the superimposed price limit and price stabilization policy may be continuously tightened from the end of the year to the first quarter of next year. The performance support of traditional cyclical industries such as coal, steel and shipping is limited, and the prosperity is likely to decline. While the middle and downstream manufacturing and retail industries continue to improve on the cost side, The medium-term profitability is expected to be repaired . The leading blue chip targets in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, medicine and biology, automobile and other sectors may have better layout opportunities, so it is recommended to continue to pay attention.
The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) securities believe that defense is the main, with long playing short . We maintain the mainline configuration: [cycle with growth attributes] unchanged, including: new energy (photovoltaic / wind power / energy storage / nuclear energy), battery (negative / electrolyte / positive material), military and mechanical equipment (industrial mother machine / shipbuilding / oil service equipment). Secondly, configuration: it not only has defense attributes, but also benefits from the “consumption degradation” superimposed on the “double 11” driven consumer varieties, including small household appliances, food and beverage, clothing, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and other necessary consumption.
