Looking back on Monday's A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened high across the board. At the beginning of the session, the Shanghai index surged up and fell back. There was once a sign of rising again, but it was suppressed, while the gem index was more weak. It fluctuated all the way down, and then the stock indexes fell and turned green. Although the stock index had repeated in the afternoon, it was always in the green position.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose and fell on Monday, continued to maintain a narrow range of shocks, and the profit-making effect is still not obvious enough. In particular, the new energy sector with continuous high performance fell as a whole. Investors should pay attention to and pay attention to risks. At present, there is support under pressure on the index, and there is a high probability of narrow range shock in the short term. If the index continues to adjust, investors can appropriately make up their positions in the varieties of positions they hold.
In addition, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) said that the trading volume of the two cities continued to remain above 1 trillion yuan, leading the frequent conversion of rising hot spots, the lack of profit-making effect in the market, and the characteristics of stock game were obvious. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the changes in policy and capital.
In terms of the future market, the agency further analyzed that is expected to have a greater possibility of small short-term consolidation of the Shanghai index and a greater possibility of small short-term shock in the gem . Investors are advised to pay careful attention to investment opportunities in pharmaceutical manufacturing, food and beverage, software services and environmental protection in the short term, and continue to pay attention to investment opportunities in undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that at present, it is in the performance window period, and the sub new and theme market is more active. Structurally, institutions have differences on the space where the fundamentals of the mainstream track exceed expectations, resulting in the continuous horizontal adjustment of the high boom track. The reason is that the rise is too large and the short-term track is too crowded. at the current time point, in terms of position allocation, due to the downward economic climate and the reduction of investors' risk preference, "undervalued" has become the most suitable plate for short-term layout . It is suggested to pay attention to the mandatory consumption with large adjustment range in the early stage, dairy products and the whole vehicle, lithium battery, consumer electronics and other plates with slower price rise in the upstream.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that at present, A-Shares are still in the stage of "showing the pressure of stable economic growth + counter cyclical and cross cyclical policies waiting to be launched + enterprise performance vacuum period" . With the goal of steady growth and employment, macro liquidity is expected to remain relatively abundant in the fourth quarter, helping the "cross year market" of A-Shares to unfold as scheduled . The launch of carbon emission reduction support tools and the establishment of the Beijing stock exchange represent the inclination of industrial and financial policies to support "new energy, hard technology, innovative and specialized small and medium-sized enterprises". High quality growth is not only the direction of capital allocation of foreign capital and institutions, but also the main line of medium and long-term allocation. Under the background of "carbon neutralization", the new energy industry chain will be a sustainable and high-profile industry in the future. Lithium, photovoltaic, energy storage, wind power and other sectors will be active in the future.
In the macro aspect, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) mentioned that in the future, policy expectation may still be the key factor affecting the market, and the strength of short-term stable growth may not be significant, the short-term path of the market may still have twists and turns, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic. Since the end of September, the policy has gradually changed towards "stabilizing growth and ensuring people's livelihood", At present, the first quarter of next year may be an important observation window period for policy development. After steady growth, the index may also perform . In terms of configuration, the development direction of short-term stable growth may bring phased opportunities, and gradually pay attention to the expected improvement of manufacturing and consumption in the middle and lower reaches caused by the easing of upstream price pressure. In the medium term, the style of partial growth may still be an important direction.
In terms of operational strategy, China Post Securities said that considering the recent performance, valuation and profitability of the industry, we focus on the undervalued sector in the near future: the risk appetite is reduced in the period of market shock, and the light industry manufacturing and transportation with historically undervalued value have good defensive characteristics; The heat of the main line of new energy is not reduced, and the traditional production capacity is difficult to release due to the impact of environmental protection policies. We are optimistic about new energy such as wind power and Optoelectronics in the upstream, which is in line with the carbon neutralization policy and the future energy development direction. We can continue to pay attention to the industries related to electrical equipment in the midstream and new energy vehicles in the downstream; Science and technology themes benefit from the boost of high-tech themes by the opening of the Beijing stock exchange. Recently, the electronics and computer industries have rebounded continuously and can continue to pay attention in the short term.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that the layout of transition period will become the main tone in the coming year. While maintaining balance, the configuration will gradually shift to growth . At the stage of bottom grinding on the left side in the fourth quarter and the transition to next year, it should be biased towards the growth track again. On the one hand, after mid September, the market fluctuated downward, and some risks have been released; On the other hand, PPI probably peaked in the fourth quarter, with limited suppression on monetary policy. Under the current downward pressure on growth and the requirements of cross cycle adjustment, there will be some support at the liquidity level. according to the three-stage performance of valuation → performance → valuation in the growth market, the growth market in the next stage will enter the last stage of valuation from performance support.
Therefore, while maintaining a balanced configuration, the agency also pointed out that it will gradually shift to a strong growth track and continue to focus on the photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage and new energy vehicle industry chain under the concept of green power; In terms of consumption, we focus on structural opportunities, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery related to the low inflation environment, cars rebounding at the bottom of the boom, as well as banks and real estate with defensive attributes and undervalued value.
