Looking back on the A-share market last week, the first four trading days took convergence shock as the main tone, while last Friday, A-share ushered in a symbolic Zhongyang with the intention to get rid of the shock. Driven by the sharp rise of financial heavyweights, the theme sector took turns, which effectively aroused the sentiment of the market and walked out of the strong rebound pattern.
As mentioned in Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) , at present, the overall liquidity support of A-Shares has basically remained stable, trillion transaction volume seems to have become the norm, the rotation of plates has accelerated, and funds are still looking for an attack point. In the current economic downturn superimposed on the fundamentals of reasonable and abundant liquidity, it is expected that the structural market with volatile trend will continue in the short term. At the same time, with the approaching of the cross year market, the continuous cross cycle regulation and the stable entry of configured foreign capital into the market, A-Shares are expected to usher in a new round of trend market opportunities .
Ping An Securities Research Report believes that near the end of the year, the market rotation is accelerating again, and the industry shows the characteristics of rapid rise and fall. On the one hand, this is due to the lack of clear trading lines in the market; On the other hand, fund managers face year-end assessment, which intensifies the consistency of their behavior to a certain extent, and then amplifies the plate fluctuation . However, while rotating, we can also see the characteristics of the diversion of some funds to low-level sectors. First, 25 ST companies have increased by more than 20% since November; Second, the concept of meta universe drives the low-level media sector to rise; Third, the marginal relaxation expectation of real estate is gradually rising, and the sentiment of the plate is warmer. On the whole, a stock market will still maintain range volatility in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the sectors with relatively low valuation and prone to marginal catalytic factors.
In terms of the future, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that since the fourth quarter, the economy has opened a recovery period, the policy is in the waiting period, stock investors are still in the hesitation period, and the market main line has entered the brewing period. With the economic recovery, the policy signal is clear, incremental funds continue to flow in, driving the stock funds to gradually increase their positions, and the market main line of blue chip return will be clearer .
Anxin strategy research report mentioned that it is about to enter a new round of “wide credit” cycle characterized by “stable total amount and wide structure”, so we can look at the market more optimistically. in the early stage of credit easing, the valuation repair of the undervalued sector is expected to become the main line of the market . The main reasons are the marginal recovery of China’s real estate policy, the stabilization and recovery of social finance growth, the preference of funds for the undervalued sector at the end of the year and other factors. With the confirmation of the wide credit policy, high boom long track growth stocks represented by Ning portfolio are expected to relay the follow-up market and drive a new round of market rise. The themes of small and medium-sized market growth and yuanuniverse will also be active repeatedly .
In the macro aspect, the China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) research report also pointed out that China’s policy of steady growth is expected to gradually exert its strength. With the rhythm and strength of the policy, the growth is expected to pass a relatively depressed period in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. With the gradual release of upstream price pressure, the “bottom support” of policy and the strengthening of liquidity easing expectations, This year, the middle and lower reaches industries with both profit and valuation pressure have performance opportunities.
In the short term, although the short-term steady growth may not be significant, and the short-term path of the market may still have twists and turns, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. At the same time, in terms of configuration, we should gradually pay attention to the opportunities of manufacturing and consumption in the middle and lower reaches brought by the easing of upstream price pressure. In the medium term, the style of partial growth may still be an important direction.
In terms of operational strategy, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) further analysis, configuration continues to tilt towards policy expectations and the middle and lower reaches : 1) marginal changes in policy or potential areas of support, including real estate industry chain, potential areas of consumption support, securities companies in finance, etc.
2) For the middle and lower reaches consumption that has been adjusted this year, the valuation is not high, and the medium and long-term prospects are still clear, stocks are selected from bottom to top, including food and beverage, medicine, household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, Internet and media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, etc.
3) The manufacturing direction of high prosperity, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, will be configured according to the changes in the prosperity of the industrial chain, with special attention to the manufacturing opportunities in the upgrading of transmission and distribution links and auto parts.
In addition, Guosheng Securities said that the market was confirmed at the end of and the value continued to pick up . （1） The so-called valuation switching refers to the decline in the explanation of the current performance for the stock price, and the stock price reflects the profit and valuation expectation of the next year in advance. Under the dual stable trend of currency and credit, it is recommended to maintain the overweight of value stocks, recommend food and beverage, aviation / Airport / hotel for large consumption, and pay attention to banks, state-owned enterprise developers and leaders of high-quality building materials.
（2） The new infrastructure development direction is the first new energy infrastructure: scenery, energy storage and UHV.
（3） Semiconductors and components with better than expected performance and expected valuation switching, auto parts and machinery with reversed upstream costs, and independent main line military industry.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) believes that it is still recommended to focus on growth in the configuration of , and beware of the counter attack and make-up opportunities of undervalued sectors during the year . In terms of industry configuration, it is recommended to pay attention to: new energy (vehicles) (smart grid, energy storage, wind energy, photovoltaic, etc.), electronics, banking, etc; Theme investment focuses on “carbon neutralization connotation expansion, military industry, digital economy, semiconductor, meta universe”, etc.
