Looking back on Monday’s A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock rebound pattern as a whole. The three major A-share indexes opened slightly higher in the morning, and then continued to rise in shock. The strong pattern was obvious. Finally, the three indexes closed positive across the board and maintained a unilateral upward trend all day.
As stated by Guosheng securities, A-Shares continued to rebound, out of the recent bright performance, with high intensity and signs of start-up in form. However, because they are facing more important pressure levels above them, should not be overly optimistic at present. We need to be cautious and increase the position allocation after it is confirmed to complete the breakthrough.
However, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) is more positive. It pointed out that at present, the market continues to strengthen after breaking through the repression of the early decline channel, some wait-and-see funds left in the early stage begin to return, and the profit-making effect of the market has rebounded effectively. In terms of operation, the market began to favor the bull market, investors can gradually increase their positions when the market is adjusted, and choose varieties with high market heat and booming seasonal production and sales for short-term trading .
Dongguan securities mentioned that from the technical point of view, the index fluctuated higher, and the profit-making effect was preferred. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan, with obvious volume. The northward capital showed a net inflow trend. It is expected that the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upward, and pay attention to the change of volume and energy and the rotation of plates. In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, chemical industry, electrical equipment, TMT and other industries.
As for the future market, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) pointed out that whether the stock index can continue to rise in the future still needs to lead the hot spot and further verification of trading volume . It is expected that the short-term shock rise of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term slight rise of the gem is more likely. Investors are advised to pay close attention to the investment opportunities of new energy vehicles, semiconductors and some cycle industries in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Huajin Securities believes that the current market structure is dominated by the market, and the market probability has ended the medium-term adjustment since September, opening a new round of rebound. With the recent easing of China and international environment, short-term risk appetite is expected to rise, and the market may usher in better trading opportunities , In terms of industry allocation, it is suggested to focus on the key direction of China’s economic structure adjustment, such as new energy industry chain, large science and technology, large finance, national defense and military industry.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) said that resumption of the main line industries led by the cross-year market in the past 15 years (from the end of November to January of the next year) has four characteristics : first, most of the leading lines continue the industries with strong early performance, which has nothing to do with valuation and trading sentiment; Second, the main lines leading the rise are industries whose high view logic has been verified during the new year. Because the new year market is in the performance vacuum period, the verification of industry prosperity is the key; Third, during the structural bull market, strong industries in the early stage have a greater probability to become the main line of leading growth, which is due to the differentiation of industry performance under the structural bull market. The end of the year and the beginning of the year belong to the peak season of fund issuance. Funds with excellent performance may have more incremental funds to strengthen the performance of strong industries. Fourth, in the early stage, the weak industries turned into the main line leading the rise, which only appeared at the end of the stock disaster or bear market. The introduction of policies made the market expectations change significantly.
According to the further analysis of the agency, led by the cross-year market this year, and the main line is expected to still be in the growth industries related to new energy and technology . We examine this year’s cross year market from the four characteristics of the main industry of the cross year market: (1) the industries with strong excess returns since the beginning of the year are Dianxin, nonferrous metals, iron and steel, coal, electronics, military industry, etc; (2) The high boom logic of growth sectors such as Dianxin, nonferrous metals, electronics and military industry has been continuously verified, and the boom logic of cyclical industries may be reversed under the condition of guaranteed supply and limited price; (3) This year is a structural market, with a high standard deviation of fund returns, which will strengthen the style of advantageous industries; (4) At the end of this year’s non bear market, the probability of reversal of industry style is small. Therefore, the cross year main line probability is in the current strong growth industry.
In the macro aspect, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that LPR remained unchanged for 19 consecutive months, MLF continued in the same volume this month, the price remained unchanged, the quotation basis of LPR remained unchanged, and there was little probability of short-term reduction in the future. From the third quarter goods policy report, steady growth has gradually become the focus of monetary policy. Between steady growth, inflation control and risk prevention, “stable currency + wide credit” may become a policy combination for some time in the future. At present, bonds are tangled in the differentiation of finding the bottom of economic growth and tamping the bottom of finance. The maturity yield of 10-year Treasury bonds fluctuates around 2.9%. In the follow-up, it is necessary to be vigilant against the interest rate correction risk caused by the wide credit expectation of structural monetary policy tools.
In terms of operational strategy, Anxin Securities said that currently focuses on grasping the valuation repair opportunities of undervalued sectors, including undervalued small cap stocks, financial real estate – non bank / bank / real estate / building materials / household appliances (policy margin relaxed, midstream cost pressure decreased), communication / consumer electronics (business transformation), food and beverage (price increase expectation), etc. . Continue to hold the high prosperity and long track represented by “Ning combination”, including photovoltaic, new energy vehicles (auto parts, lithium resources, lithium batteries), semiconductors (high-end chips / equipment), military industry, etc.
