Looking back on Tuesday’s A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher, the stock index differentiated at the beginning of the session, the Shanghai index rose rapidly, while the gem index fell rapidly, and then the Shanghai index fell behind the gem index; In the afternoon, the stock index continued to shake and consolidate, and the performance of the Shanghai index was stronger than that of the gem index. Unfortunately, it dived and turned green once in the session, picked up again in the late session, and the decline narrowed.
As mentioned in Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , the performance of the market stock index on Tuesday showed an obvious differentiation trend, indicating that funds have inconsistent views on the market and sectors. It is difficult to push up the stock index without hindering the performance of subject stocks. In the short term, anti epidemic, new energy, semiconductors and military industry are still the main directions.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities pointed out that the market continued the shock consolidation pattern on Tuesday, and some funds flowed northward, but most stocks rose, and the market volume can continue to remain above trillion yuan, so it is not pessimistic as a whole. It is expected that the market is expected to shake and stabilize, and pay attention to the rotation rhythm of the plate and the change of volume energy. In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, household appliances, electrical equipment, TMT and other industries.
As for the future market, YueKai Securities said that it is expected that the market will probably remain volatile in the short term, and investors are advised to pay attention to structural opportunities . In the future, we will pay attention to the impact of the mutated virus. China’s “rapid clearing” epidemic prevention control mode is conducive to maintaining a good state and has little impact on China’s economy and policies; If the impact of the mutant virus exceeds expectations, it may slow down the tightening pace of overseas monetary policy, and China’s supply chain advantage will be highlighted again.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) believes that the virus mutant Omicron has an impact on the pace of global economic recovery, and overseas monetary policy may continue to be dove . As far as China is concerned, China’s public health system has timely and efficient response measures, and has experienced multiple rounds of epidemic (mutation) impact before. Both residents and public health system have epidemic prevention experience. Therefore, the impact of new virus variants on China is less than that of foreign countries. At present, the transaction of trillion A-Shares has become the norm, the valuation is reasonable, and there is a safety cushion. “China’s economy is weakening in stability + loose liquidity + frequent industrial policies” is still the main tone, which has become the driving force for the interpretation of “cross year market”.
In the macro aspect, Anxin securities research pointed out that entered December, risks and opportunities coexist. At present, opportunities are greater than risks . From the perspective of opportunities, the market is in a performance window period in December, and some market funds tend to lay out next year’s high boom track in advance, and the market risk appetite is expected to improve. On the other hand, the current market also has high expectations for the economic stimulus policy at the beginning of next year. It is expected that the policy will be clarified at the Politburo meeting and the central economic work meeting in mid December.
According to further analysis of Anxin securities, the current economy is in a downward cycle, especially in the first half of next year, so it is necessary to loosen the policy. Meanwhile, since October, the upstream commodity prices represented by coal and steel have fallen sharply; Affected by the new round of epidemic and the rising demand for foreign exchange settlement at the end of the year, the RMB showed a strong performance. This has opened up space for future easing of policies. We expect that China’s economy will enter a new round of “wide credit” cycle characterized by “stable aggregate and wide structure”, so we can look at the market more optimistically.
In terms of risk, new variant strain may bring new variables to the epidemic situation . We judged that the impact is neutral, but the uncertainty has increased. We suggest to closely follow up and observe the latest research results of the mutant strain and wait for the impact scope, destructive power and policy response of the new round of epidemic to be gradually clear. In addition, the current market has high policy expectations for next year, and there may be a risk that the policy strength is less than expected.
In terms of operational strategy, the agency also pointed out that the allocation directions include: first, the layout of next year’s high boom track in advance, especially after the wide credit policy is confirmed, the high boom long track represented by “Ning combination”, as well as high elastic directions such as small and medium-sized growth and meta universe; the second is the boom improvement of downstream consumer varieties with reasonable valuation . Focus: photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, computers, the yuan universe, Baijiu, automobiles, express delivery and so on.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned that the fundamental logic of procyclical plate may change significantly . Global commodity prices have fallen and China’s determination to transform energy has become stronger. Although coal mining and other sectors have experienced a deep correction, they still have great uncertainty. It is recommended to deal with them carefully. The vaccine, covid-19 detection and other sub sectors in pharmaceutical biology are still expected to maintain a certain boom under the normalized epidemic prevention and control. It is recommended to pay attention. In addition, the sub sectors in the growth style such as the new energy vehicle industry chain and the sectors with strong performance growth certainty such as national defense and military industry have better medium and long-term configuration value, so it is recommended to continue to pay attention.
In addition, China Post Securities said that affected by the new mutant virus Omicron, epidemic prevention related medicine, biology, food and beverage once again entered the vision of investors. Since this year, the adjusted valuations of the two industries are relatively reasonable, so we can pay more attention to . The heat of the main line of new energy is not reduced, and the traditional production capacity is difficult to release due to the impact of environmental protection policies. In the long term, it is optimistic about new energy such as wind power and Optoelectronics in the upstream, which is in line with the carbon neutralization policy and the future energy development direction. The industries related to electrical equipment in the midstream and new energy vehicles in the downstream can continue to pay attention. Science and technology themes benefit from the boost of high-tech themes by the opening of the Beijing stock exchange. Recently, the electronics and computer industries have rebounded continuously and can continue to pay attention in the short term.
