Looking back on Thursday's A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low, quickly rose and turned red at the beginning of trading, dived back, and then maintained a narrow range of shock; In the afternoon, the stock index rose and fell again. On the whole, the Shanghai index performed strongly, while under the differentiation of subject stocks, the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index were relatively weak.
As mentioned in Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) , the structural market of A-Shares continued on Thursday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes reorganized sideways again, with obvious differentiation of plate rise and fall, and the transaction volume was basically flat. The recent average value was still stable above 1.1 trillion yuan. Looking back this year, the sentiment of the A-share market has been significantly weakened by the external market. The new variant of covid-19 is expected to have limited negative impact on China's A-share market. under the downward pressure of China's economy and the widening currency expectation, the cross-year market is still expected . It is suggested to focus on the pharmaceutical and biological, rare earth, mass consumption and other sectors with strong certainty of performance repair in the short term, At the same time, bargain hunting layout clean energy, digital new infrastructure and other high boom growth tracks.
Technically, Huaxin Securities said that A-Shares continue to fluctuate weakly, and the current market is still in a tangled state. In terms of short cycle, the Shanghai stock index will fluctuate repeatedly between the 60 day moving average and the half year line, and then look for opportunities to try to break through the heavy pressure area of 3602-3625 points. at present, for investors, instead of pursuing trading opportunities with high uncertainty, It's better to patiently layout the long-term target .
In terms of the future market, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that the market continues to fluctuate in the adjustment of concept stocks, but fortunately, several indexes have not broken. At present, it is still benign . In the shock, the aversion of funds to risk is more obvious. For the time being, we should pay attention to avoiding high-level varieties, but some of them with clear performance expectations are also good opportunities to intervene under the wrong killing, and we should pay attention to different treatment.
Guosheng securities mentioned that the current market is dominated by the rotation and replenishment of low-level plates. The market gives positive feedback to industries with good news, small and medium-sized themes and clear policy coverage. Before the general profit-making effect, the market incremental funds are still dominated by institutions, and the direction of institutional layout may be dominated in the first quarter of next year, This month's central economic conference will set the tone for the market style . The general directions of "common prosperity", "scientific and technological power", "high-quality development" and "carbon neutralization" will be the main policy logic, and pay attention to the low price make-up opportunities in the directions of independent controllable chips, specialization and innovation, cloud computing and high-end manufacturing.
Macroscopically, Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) pointed out that has little pressure before the festival, but it still does not rule out reducing the reserve requirement at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) the macro group estimates that if the central bank's reverse repo is renewed at maturity, MLF is renewed at the same amount or slightly reduced, or through standard reduction hedging, it is expected that there will be no liquidity gap, and the remaining four factors, such as government deposits, foreign exchange occupation, standard payment pressure and M0 disturbance, will release a total of about 749.6 billion yuan of liquidity. If the central bank's investment (continuation of the open market and re loan investment) is not considered, the liquidity gap is expected to reach 670.4 billion. Considering the position of the central bank in maintaining the stability of funds in the third quarter monetary policy report, we expect that the central bank will still use Omo operation to "cut peaks and fill valleys" in December. At the same time, after the central economic work conference, we still do not rule out the possibility of replacing MLF through RRR reduction.
In terms of operational strategy, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) said that the market's attention to the brokerage sector has increased significantly recently. In addition to the continued improvement of the industry, the low valuation is also an important reason. In the case of the downturn in most sectors, the brokerage stocks, as the flag bearer of the bull market, have strong game attributes, which can activate market popularity, retreat freely, and their contribution to the stock index can be seen. From the perspective of index operation, the Shanghai index has rebounded recently, but its sustainability is not optimistic. It is necessary to consider the possibility of rising and falling. The market continues to maintain a high probability of box shock, investors can continue to pay attention to undervalued varieties before the end of the year.
Dongguan Securities pointed out that the market opportunities will still be dominated by structure and band. It is suggested to optimize the industry and midline layout in combination with various factors such as industrial policy, industry prosperity and institutional layout, focusing on: (1) the main line of consumption recovery : such as food and beverage, household appliances, leisure services, medicine, etc; (2) carbon neutralization main line : "focus on new energy, new energy vehicles, electrical equipment, environmental protection, etc. under the background of" double carbon "; (3) main line of scientific and technological innovation : such as computer, electronics, communication, new materials, military industry and other sectors. (4) undervalued high-quality blue chip main line : such as finance, building materials, machinery, etc.
In addition, Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) mentioned that at present, affected by the recent Omicron, the market mainly has two clues : 1) Omicron has brought new opportunities led by the maritime sector. Recently, under the influence of Omicron, shipping and other sectors are catalyzed by the expected rise in freight rates caused by the exposure of variant viruses. The market's response to the epidemic is finally reflected in shipping, and the subsequent performance of relevant sectors is expected. 2) the epidemic situation has strengthened the main line of the high boom sector under the cross year market to a certain extent. The performance of high boom sectors related to military industry and new energy is still strong. The growth sector has digested the impact of Omicron, and the follow-up growth main line is expected to continue to lead the cross-year market.
The agency further analyzed that the cross year market of has been opened, focusing on the growth main line of prosperity verification in the fourth quarter and the new direction of epidemic catalysis . Specifically: 1) the long-term and short-term military industry market is supported, and the prosperity of new energy and semiconductor is verified . Although there is no high-frequency data tracking for military industry, the current round of military industry market is driven by the situation in the Taiwan Strait in the short term and has the growth brought by the increase of military expenditure in the long term. It is expected to have a certain continuity and cross the year; From the current observable boom data of the main growth lines of new energy and semiconductor, and from the past five years, the relevant sectors have a certain boom effect in the fourth quarter, and the boom verification helps them cross the year.
2) new directions of variant virus catalytic shipping, vaccine, computer and media . The new cross year directions catalyzed by variant viruses mainly include shipping (due to the impact of port epidemic prevention overweight and insufficient wharf employment, there is the possibility of aggravating port congestion, resulting in the continued rise of freight rates), vaccines (new variant viruses stimulate the research and development demand of new vaccines) Computers and media (the epidemic has significantly increased the activity of streaming media and social platforms, increased the demand for online office, and metauniverse has catalysis). In addition, because the current supply level of epidemic prevention materials is much higher than that of last year, such directions may be less catalyzed by the epidemic.
