Looking back on Monday's A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had different opening ups and downs. At the beginning of the session, the Shanghai index fell sharply after opening high, then stabilized and rose to maintain a high shock, while the gem index fluctuated after opening low, rapidly rising and rising. Unfortunately, the upward momentum was limited, and then showed a weak consolidation pattern; In the afternoon, the three major stock indexes fluctuated lower, and further dived in the late afternoon. The gem index was weak all day, and the A-Shares rose and fell as a whole.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , the adjustment of the A-share market on Monday was mainly related to the decline of disk risk appetite. We can clearly see that on the one hand, there was a correction in high valuation varieties such as new energy, semiconductor chips and lithium batteries, on the other hand, there was a decline in hot money dominated by secondary new speculation. In the short term, we should pay attention to the correction pressure on the growth direction, especially in the peripheral turbulent period, The risk appetite of the market may still be further reduced. In terms of operation, it is recommended to control positions and moderately increase the allocation of low-level blue chips, so as to realize balanced positions, especially the financial sector benefiting from the RRR reduction and cautiously chase up the rise.
As for the future, Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) mentioned that the central bank lowered the reserve requirement as scheduled, and the Politburo meeting revisited the "six stabilities and six guarantees" to change the market's pessimistic expectation of the economy . Although the top deviation structure has been formed on the time-sharing line of the market, we believe that the adjustment may only be temporary, and the upward probability of shock in the later stage is large. Radical investors are advised to pay attention to banks, securities companies and military industry. Prudent investors increased their positions on bargain hunting to about 80%.
Macroscopically, Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that the rapid landing of the RRR reduction released positive policy signals, dispelled the market's previous concerns about liquidity, and market confidence is expected to be boosted. In the medium and long term, the purpose of this RRR reduction is to create a good monetary and financial environment for economic growth. The financing cost of the real economy is expected to be reduced, especially small and micro enterprises are expected to benefit, which is conducive to economic stabilization and recovery. Overall, the RRR reduction is positive for the A-share market .
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the central bank announced a comprehensive RRR reduction of 0.5 percentage points and released 1.2 trillion long-term funds to deal with the new downward pressure on China's economy. At present, although China's economy has recovered, it has not yet reached the potential growth rate. In particular, small and medium-sized enterprises still face certain difficulties. The credit risk events some time ago also led to a decline in real estate investment. Part of the funds released from the RRR reduction will be used to hedge the MLF. It is expected that the MLF due on December 15 may be renewed by 500-700 billion and reduced by 250-450 billion. Market liquidity is expected to be marginally loose, but the range may be weaker than the RRR reduction in July. in the future, it is expected that monetary policy will be flexible and appropriate to keep the economy running within a reasonable range .
Cinda Securities believes that is mainly driven by three : Valuation rebound + steady growth + seasonal rebound of resident funds. the first driving force is the "valuation rebound" . Since March, the adjustment time and range of some sectors are large, so it is necessary to repair the valuation. the second driving force is the "optimistic policy before and after the new year" . With the implementation of the standard reduction, the new year market will enter the second wave of rise dominated by stable growth expectations. Only the first two forces can support the market to rise to January, then we need to verify the activity of residents' funds. If can recover, the cross-year market can continue until March. Our current judgment is still optimistic. We suggest investors to actively participate in the cross-year market.
Previously, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) also mentioned that in recent years, most of the "spring agitation" began to start in December, which was "cross year agitation" in advance. We think it may be the same this year. On the one hand, the residual temperature of economy and profitability still exists, and the market fundamentals are still supported in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. On the other hand, the policy has gradually turned positive in the near future, which may also become a catalyst for the industry.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) also said that during the "spring agitation" in the history of , the steady growth sector as a whole had a strong performance . In recent years, the consumption sector has gradually become the main force of "spring agitation". Considering the recent price increases of mass consumer goods, the overall improvement of the relative prosperity of the consumer industry in 2022 and the valuation adjustment of early consumption relative to the growth sector, we believe that this year's consumption is expected to become the main force of "cross year agitation". In addition, driven by policies, the steady growth sector also deserves attention.
In terms of operation strategy, the organization further analyzed that grasped the two main lines of cross year agitation . This year's "spring agitation" may be "cross year agitation" in advance, which may have a significant impact on the annual income, which is worth grasping. The investment direction concerns two main lines: the consumption line concerns the Baijiu medicine with definite higher level, and the consumption stimulus policies and consumer goods under the price increase. The main line of steady growth focuses on the themes of traditional infrastructure (machinery, building materials, construction), new infrastructure (wind power, photovoltaic) and Rural Revitalization.
Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) pointed out that the current weak fundamentals combined with loose liquidity may still be the main line . We suggest paying attention to the following opportunities: first, the valuation repair opportunities for financial sectors such as non banks and banks; Second, growth sectors benefiting from valuation switching at the end of the year, such as national defense and military industry, semiconductor and computer sectors; Third, structural opportunities under the low-carbon main line, such as energy infrastructure and green power operation benefiting from the decline in silicon wafer prices; In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of some price rising industries, such as papermaking and some consumer goods.
In addition, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) believes that the industry allocation suggests balanced allocation between high and low areas, pays attention to the marginal improvement of liquidity under the RRR reduction and the clue of "stable growth of structural credit" : (1) securities companies with marginal improvement of liquidity + Fundamentals under the RRR reduction; (2) Under the stable growth of double carbon wide credit + new infrastructure, new energy with resonance between supply and demand and military industry with supply and demand gap; (3) Prosperity expectation and fund allocation hit the bottom, and food processing with price increase under ppi-cpi transmission.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) said that the market's pessimistic expectation of economic downturn at the end of the year and the first half of next year has been quite sufficient, and the weak trend of bank stocks in the early stage has fully reflected this. We believe that This "timely RRR reduction" is different from July, which will be significantly good for bank stocks .
