All day long, the stock market of A and Shanghai opened up after the first half of the market. The stock market was gradually stabilized and the Baijiu plate rose all day. Financial stocks continued to gain gains, and the secondary attack index broke through. The overall performance of the gem was stronger than that of the stock index in the two market share of the A stock market.
As mentioned in Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) , at present, the market trend on Wednesday began to fulfill the expectation of reducing the reserve requirement. On the whole, the big and heavy sectors have a great advantage. track stocks are still in a low relative position, and there are semiconductor, military and media sectors expected in the long term. It is recommended to focus on these three directions in the future . the weight industry is also optimistic, but its elasticity is slightly worse than that of the growth sector, which can be used as a bottom position to support the overall profit . It is suggested to wait and see for new energy vehicles, green power and photovoltaic with excessive increase in the early stage.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities said that the index recovered significantly on Wednesday, and the Shanghai index hit a high of 3600 points again, with more than 3200 stocks flying red. Coupled with the strong net inflow of funds from the north of nearly 10 billion yuan, boosting market confidence, it is expected that the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upward, and pay attention to the flow of foreign capital and plate rotation . In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, chemical industry, electrical equipment, TMT and other industries.
As for the future market, Guosheng Securities believes that overseas disturbance continues, but China’s action can continue to strengthen, and the cross-year market has spread . On the one hand, the overseas uncertainty continues and the VIX Index continues to rise, but the momentum of the Chinese market continues to strengthen. The rise and fall limit ratio has remained high since mid November. Recently, it has climbed again, approaching the high point of the year. Moreover, foreign capital and leveraged funds continue to enter, and the trading sentiment continues to heat up. On the other hand, the market transaction concentration continued to fall, the market coverage over the next year gradually expanded, the differentiation level that repeatedly reached new highs in the early stage also began to fall, and the transaction structure continued to be optimized. In addition, we still need to pay attention to the year-end rise of the scale of the lifting of the ban. The stock lifting of the ban in December is expected to reach 546.8 billion yuan, a significant rise month on month.
In addition, in terms of the market in December, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that from the analysis of the market and industry market in December of the last 10 years, the Shanghai Composite Index rose and fell five times, the Shenzhen Component Index rose and fell four times, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose and fell five times, and the gem index rose and fell five times. the market has the same probability of rise and fall in December of the last 10 years, but the average rise in December of the last two years is . Generally, the central annual economic work conference held in December has a great impact on the medium-term policy, and the market response to the policy is relatively obvious.
Macroscopically, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that after the comprehensive RRR reduction was implemented, the central bank successively announced to reduce the interest rate of small expenditure and agricultural re loan, which verified our previous view that “after the RRR reduction, we may successively introduce more active fiscal policy and structural monetary policy”. The targeted interest rate reduction policy of reducing the interest rates of small and agricultural re loans is different from the comprehensive interest rate reduction, with more emphasis on “precision and direct” to help the real economy. At present, policy is broad and loose, and the tone is relatively clear. The first and second quarters of next year may be a better window period, with strong A-share liquidity support. The probability at the meso level will continue the previous structural adjustment idea . It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the high boom growth track configuration opportunities. At the same time, under the regulation of counter cyclical steady growth, the winning rate of consumer and financial sectors is relatively high. It is suggested to tap high-quality targets with more attractive valuation.
In terms of operational strategy, Caixin securities mentioned that the systematic risk faced by the A-share market in the fourth quarter was small, and there was a structural market. We suggest focusing on high boom and high growth tracks with performance certainty. Configuration direction: (1) carbon neutralization theme . At present, China is fully promoting the goal of “carbon neutralization”. Clean energy such as wind and light is accelerating to replace traditional energy. We can pay attention to new energy, environmental protection and energy storage.
(2) new economic theme . High end technology manufacturing industry may be an important driving force for future economic growth. It is suggested to focus on chip semiconductors, computer software, high-end intelligent manufacturing with accelerated domestic substitution and rapid industry growth.
(3) consumption recovery theme . At present, China’s PPI is at a high level and CPI rises slowly. The subsequent scissors difference between the two is expected to converge, and the industrial profits will shift from the upstream to the middle and downstream. It is expected that there will be some opportunities in the consumer sector. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to “Guochao” cosmetics and medical beauty.
(4) biomedical theme . Medicine is an industry with long-term value, and there are short-term opportunities before the epidemic is completely controlled.
(5) undervalued finance topic . At present, the valuation of track stocks has far exceeded that of other sectors, and there is a strong demand for make-up in the undervalued financial sector.
Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) pointed out that the current weak fundamentals combined with loose liquidity may still be the main line . We suggest paying attention to the following opportunities: first, the valuation repair opportunities for financial sectors such as non banks and banks; Second, growth sectors benefiting from valuation switching at the end of the year, such as national defense and military industry, semiconductor and computer sectors; Third, structural opportunities under the low-carbon main line, such as energy infrastructure and green power operation benefiting from the decline in silicon wafer prices; In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of some price rising industries, such as papermaking and some consumer goods.
