Since the second half of 2021, under the background of accelerating the transformation of energy structure, new energy storage related policies have been gradually implemented, and industrial development has gradually entered the fast lane. Previously, the energy administration has successively issued the guiding opinions on accelerating the development of new energy storage and the management specifications for new energy storage projects (Provisional), and put forward quantitative and qualitative objectives for the energy storage industry in 2025 and 2030.
distribution and storage ratio is raised to a new height
Recently, the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan has been implemented, and the document puts forward the development goal. By 2025, the new energy storage will enter the stage of large-scale development from the initial stage of commercialization and have the conditions for large-scale commercialization. The innovation ability of new energy storage technology has been significantly improved, the independent and controllable level of core technology and equipment has been greatly improved, and the standard system has been basically improved. The industrial system is becoming more and more complete, and the market environment and business model are basically mature. With the successive introduction of heavy planning, the capacity of energy storage guarantee policies in various regions has been further expanded. Up to now, more than 20 provinces have defined the specification requirements of supporting energy storage equipment, and clearly specified the requirements of distribution and storage proportion and configuration duration.
Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) analyst Zhang Wenchen pointed out that the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan has further defined the objectives in terms of cost, price, mechanism, standard and so on. At present, various application modes of energy storage are developing, constantly adjusted and improved. Although there are still many difficulties, there is no doubt about the development potential and Prospect of energy storage. With the rise of global power consumption, the market space for energy storage will be further opened. Through the calculation of the scale of the global energy storage market in various segments, it is expected that the compound growth rate of the scale of the global energy storage market is expected to reach 50% from 2021 to 2025. In terms of market space, industry insiders predict that China's energy storage investment market space will reach 0.45 trillion yuan by 2025 and about 1.30 trillion yuan by 2030, with an amazing growth rate.
industry leaders are betting on
As an important track, the energy storage sector in the A-share market has strengthened repeatedly. Since this year, there has been an obvious correction in the energy storage sector against the background of the market style shift of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle. Is this an opportunity? Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) analyst Yin Zhongxin pointed out that after the correction at this stage, the valuation of the whole sector has returned to a reasonable range. On the whole, the high growth trend of the energy storage industry remains unchanged. It is expected that the growth rate of the industry will exceed 100% in 2022. The energy storage industry is currently in a period of accelerated development, and the development of energy storage outside China has increased significantly. We predict that the global installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage will be about 20-25, 50 and 80 GWH from 2021 to 2023 Compared with other sectors of Dianxin, energy storage is still the segment track with the fastest growth rate.
With the release of the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan, the growth rate of the industry is expected to accelerate upward. The industry has entered the stage of large-scale development from the initial stage of commercialization, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Shenzhen Desay Battery Technology Co.Ltd(000049) , Shenzhen Kexin Communication Technologies Co.Ltd(300565) and others have begun to focus on the energy storage industry. Liu Qiang, an analyst at Kaiyuan securities, pointed out that energy storage is in the early stage of development and will fully enjoy the post cycle elasticity in 2022. From the perspective of core growth, focus on the links with high value, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) and other benefits; From the perspective of certainty, the short-term profit of overseas home storage is good, and the medium and long-term focus on the quadratic curve of power side energy storage growth, Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) and other benefits; From the perspective of elasticity, companies with high proportion of energy storage revenue and good elasticity include Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) in the field of battery and Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) in the field of inverter.
potential stock selection
\u3000\u3000 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750)
The company's performance forecast for the fourth quarter of 2021 shows that the median net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 130%, which greatly exceeded the market expectation. Under the condition of accelerated depreciation, the company still has strong profitability, not only from locking raw materials in advance but also from having a certain low-cost raw material inventory, but also from strong supply chain management ability, large-scale production and continuous technological progress. It is estimated that the gross profit margin of the company's battery will basically maintain about 20% in the first half of 2022. The high price of lithium carbonate in the second quarter of 2022 is stable, and the prices of some materials are loose in the middle and later of the year. Superimposed on the company's advantages in technology and scale, it is expected that the profitability of the company's power battery is expected to usher in an inflection point in the second half of 2022. Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) pointed out that considering that 2022 is still a big year for global electric vehicle sales, and the superimposed energy storage continues to increase significantly, it is expected that the company's overall shipment in 2022 is expected to reach 300gwh, including 50gwh of energy storage and 250gwh of power, which will continue to double or more, and the global installed market share will further increase to more than 35%, with the growth elasticity far exceeding that of overseas battery enterprises. Recently, due to various rumors, the stock price of the company was wrongly killed, and the valuation was corrected to the bottom of history. The company has sufficient orders in hand in 2022, and the shipment volume and performance are expected to continue to double. The current valuation is obviously underestimated.
\u3000\u3000 Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (300274)
As one of the largest Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic inverter manufacturers in China, the company has obvious market advantages in the core product photovoltaic inverter, and the market share of photovoltaic inverter business is in the forefront in many overseas regions. From the revenue structure of optical storage business, the company's overseas revenue accounted for 80% in the first three quarters, and overseas has become an important shipping market of the company. In terms of energy storage, the company is mainly engaged in energy storage system integration. Since 2014, the company has formed a deep coupling integration technology among pack, PCs, EMS and BMS to ensure the safe operation of the whole energy storage system. Wanhe Securities pointed out that the national energy administration made it clear that the new energy storage and user adjustable load are officially listed as the main body of grid connection, which means that the new energy storage will obtain independent main qualification in grid connection operation and auxiliary services. At the same time, more than ten provinces in China have successively issued "strong allocation" policies, and energy storage will usher in a golden period of rapid development. Energy storage has become one of the fast-growing businesses of the company, and the subsequent growth is expected to continue. The company continues to focus on in-depth technology research and development, promote the conversion and integration of photovoltaic, energy storage and wind power and product innovation, promote the distributed national strategy for the whole county, launch full scene solutions, introduce the "integration of optical storage and charging" mode, and comprehensively layout distributed photovoltaic power stations. In the future, the company is expected to continue to maintain its competitive advantage in system technology and market development.
\u3000\u3000 Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) (688063)
The company is one of the few enterprises in China with independent R & D and manufacturing capacity of energy storage core components such as cell, module, battery management system and energy management system, and has been deeply engaged in the lithium iron phosphate battery energy storage market for decades. Since 2017, the company has seized the opportunity of overseas user side energy storage market, vigorously expanded overseas high-quality customers, achieved rapid development, and grown into one of the leading enterprises in the global household energy storage market. Huachuang Securities pointed out that the company has multiple competitive advantages in the industry. Among them, the company's vertical industrial chain layout, focusing on the household energy storage market segment, has grasped the development opportunities of overseas household energy storage since 2017, and has a significant overall first mover advantage; In addition, various countries have launched different stimulus policies to promote the rapid development of the energy storage market. At present, the space base of the energy storage market is small, with strong growth and high certainty. It can be predicted that in the future, as the space of the energy storage market becomes larger, the whole industrial chain companies will benefit.
Overall, the company's production capacity has increased steadily, and the production capacity of electric cells has reached 3gwh by the end of 2021 In 2020, the company has formed an annual production capacity of 1GWh cells and an annual production capacity of 1.15gwh battery system. With the gradual implementation of the raised investment project, the company will form an annual production capacity of 3gwh cells by the end of 2021. We estimate that the company will have 5gwh cell capacity and 6gwh energy storage system capacity by the end of 2023.
\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) (300438)
The company's lithium-ion battery business covers cylindrical, square and soft bags in an all-round way. By the end of 2021, the company's total production capacity is expected to reach 16.3gwh, including power battery 3.6gwh and energy storage battery 5.6gwh. Energy storage has become the company's main business direction in the future. At the same time, it is planned that the long-term production capacity of Changzhou and Liuzhou factories will reach 11gwh and 20gwh In the process of transmitting the subsequent cost rise to the downstream, the profitability of the battery link is expected to improve and the performance inflection point will appear. Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) pointed out that the transformation of power structure with new energy as the main body has spawned the electrochemical energy storage market. It is expected that the new installed capacity will reach 221.5gwh by 2025, with a compound growth rate of 53.3%. From the perspective of characteristics, the front meter market has a large space, and the participation of cell enterprises is expected to rapidly increase the scale. While the back meter market has TOC attribute, and the profit margin of cell is higher than that of general power battery. Since 2015, the company has deployed its energy storage business, covering a variety of application scenarios such as overseas home storage, China's power generation side and communication base stations. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company's energy storage business revenue has reached 1.054 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 145%, accounting for 27%. In the next 10 years, the energy storage market will expand rapidly β Next, we think the company α It is expected to help achieve faster growth.
\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Kexin Communication Technologies Co.Ltd(300565) (300565)
The company is a leading network energy enterprise in China. It is one of the few enterprises in China with independent research, development and production of network energy core software and hardware such as battery system and power system. It can provide "one-stop" network energy solutions for communication base stations, data centers, industry and Commerce and other scenes. At present, the company is the partner of 5g base station and data center energy consumption management of three major operators in China, and the partner of Nokia and Ericsson global network energy. The company also cooperates with Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) to build a lithium battery production line, so that the company has the ability to independently produce communication lithium batteries and provide a lithium battery communication energy system matched with existing communication network equipment. In the field of commercial energy storage, kexinjuli, a subsidiary, has launched a variety of products such as wall mounted home storage solutions, portable mobile energy storage solutions and expandable home energy storage systems, which are not only beautiful and convenient, but also flexible in application. They can also cut peak and fill valley, stabilize power supply, and deliver cleaner, environmentally friendly and low-cost energy solutions to thousands of households. In terms of industrial and commercial energy storage applications, Kexin focused on large-scale energy storage applications and launched non walk-in large-scale container energy storage. The comprehensive energy density was increased by 10% and the comprehensive cost was reduced by 20%.
\u3000\u3000 Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) (688390)
The company is the global leader in household energy storage inverters. By 2025, with the advantages of price and products, the global market share of Chinese manufacturers is expected to exceed 80%, leading the development of the global inverter market. At present, both at home and abroad are overweight energy storage support policies. According to cnesa's prediction, the cumulative installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage in China is expected to reach 55.88gw by 2025 Bloomberg new energy predicts that the installed capacity of global energy storage will reach 1676gw and 5827gwh in 2050, and the investment will reach 662 billion US dollars in the next 30 years. The company is expected to fully benefit from the rapid growth of energy storage capacity. Guosheng Securities pointed out that while laying out the energy storage inverter, the company sold the energy storage inverter with the energy storage battery, gradually developed the energy storage system integration business, directly provided solutions for customers and expanded the sales of energy storage products. Theoretically, in a situation completely powered by photovoltaic, it is necessary to configure 1:3 to 1:5 energy storage, that is, 1 watt photovoltaic is equipped with 3 watt hour to 5 watt hour energy storage batteries, so as to realize uninterrupted power supply. This brings huge energy storage demand, and the integration of optical storage is expected to become a clean energy solution in the future. As a global leader in household energy storage, the company will rely on the perfect global inverter sales network layout and product performance advantages to achieve rapid growth in the field of energy storage.
\u3000\u3000 Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) (300014)
The company and its subsidiaries plan to invest in a new power energy storage battery project with an annual output of 30gwh in Jingmen, specifically 15gwh logistics vehicle and lithium iron phosphate battery project for household energy storage and 15gwh ternary battery project for passenger vehicles. At present, the company also has a variety of technical routes such as lithium iron phosphate, large column, square and soft bag. It has stably supplied Daimler, Hyundai and Xiaopeng, won two fixed points of BMW and European Daimler, and contacted major international customers. After this announcement, the company's current capacity planning has exceeded 200gwh It is estimated that by the end of 2021, the total power battery capacity of the company will reach 40gwh Huachuang Securities pointed out that at present, the company has participated in WataI energy, an energy storage system company, to supply energy storage cells, and the production capacity of 3gwh energy storage batteries for Huawei will be realized this year. According to the announcement, at the end of May, the company's lf280k energy storage cell obtained the test report of ul9540a. This cell is an energy storage cell product for Yiwei power to expand the overseas market, especially in the North American power grid application market. The acquisition of ul9540a test report has helped Yiwei power develop international energy storage markets such as North America. The company is a global leader in lithium primary batteries. Ternary soft pack batteries are deeply bound to major customers. The production expansion of lithium iron phosphate batteries continues to accelerate. It is expected that the company's shipments will increase significantly in the future, and the scale effect will drive the company's performance to increase continuously.
\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) (002518)
The company has a solid dominant position in traditional industries such as finance, communication and rail transit. Affected by the epidemic last year, the delivery of the company's data center business was delayed. The data center business revenue increased rapidly in the first quarter of this year and is expected to continue to grow well throughout the year. Last year, the company's overseas photovoltaic projects were delayed. With the orderly progress of global vaccination, the impact of the epidemic gradually weakened. At the same time, the company's overseas channels accelerated the recovery. It is expected that the overseas photovoltaic market will recover well this year. At the same time, the company continues to increase R & D investment and expand the product line of photovoltaic inverter. On the other hand, the construction of phase II project of Huizhou Zhongkai Industrial Park has been basically completed and has been partially put into operation; The Vietnam base has resumed construction from the epidemic, providing sufficient capacity reserves for the subsequent expansion of the company's business. Minsheng Securities pointed out that the energy storage market benefited from the drive of the new energy revolution, the cost of superimposed lithium battery decreased rapidly, and the installed capacity increased rapidly. According to bnef data, in 2020, the global energy storage installed capacity increased by 5.3gw, with a year-on-year increase of about 56%; Bnef predicts that the new installed capacity will reach 9.7gw in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 80%. The company has strengthened the construction of overseas photovoltaic and energy storage channels. The first phase of the main project of the joint venture with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has been completed and is expected to be put into operation in the middle of this year. The company's energy storage business is expected to usher in rapid growth.
\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) (603063)
The company focuses on the field of electric energy conversion, covering the field of new energy power generation and electrical transmission. Its main products include wind power converter, photovoltaic inverter and electrical transmission products, as well as energy storage and power quality products. Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that the company has widely expanded multiple product lines with its power electronics technology platform as the core.
In the field of electrical transmission, it has independently developed hd2000 series low-voltage engineering frequency converter, hd8000 series medium voltage multi-level frequency converter and HV500 Series High-Performance frequency converter; In the field of energy storage, provide competitive overall solutions for common AC or DC energy storage systems. Specific products include energy storage converters, energy management systems, STS switching devices, complete sets of energy storage systems and other products. At the same time, the company also covers SVG, wind power generation supporting products, new energy vehicle charging products, etc. In the context of "double carbon", the prospect of wind power is broad, and the parity era is periodically weakened. In 2021, China's offshore wind power has sprung up, with an additional installed capacity of 16.9gw According to our calculation, the market scale of China's wind power converter will reach 7.29 billion yuan in 2025, and the market scale will exceed 30 billion yuan during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The company is a leading supplier of independent third-party wind power converters, with a wide range of downstream customers, accounting for about 16.7% of the market according to the installed power caliber.
\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) (002837)
Since its establishment 16 years ago, the company has been committed to providing heat dissipation products such as computer room and cabinet air conditioner for data center, communication network and other fields, forming four major businesses: computer room temperature control and energy saving, cabinet temperature control and energy saving, passenger car air conditioning, rail transit train air conditioning and services. The company attaches great importance to R & D. in the first three quarters of 2021, the R & D expense rate was 6.66%, which has continued to increase over the years. By the end of 2020, the number of R & D personnel reached 853, accounting for 36.34%. Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) pointed out that under the policy background of "stable growth", new infrastructure will become the key development direction, and under the goal of "carbon neutrality", the requirements for energy efficiency of the industry will continue to improve. Among them, the construction of China's data center has accelerated, showing a large-scale trend, and the demand for air conditioning in the machine room continues to increase. The company has advanced indirect evaporative cooling and liquid cooling technology, which can effectively reduce pue and achieve significant energy saving; In addition, 5g construction continues to accelerate, the rapid development of overlay cloud computing and edge computing technology, the rapid growth of equipment heat density and energy consumption, and the demand for cabinet temperature control will continue to increase. The company has a forward-looking layout of the energy storage and temperature control market. The relevant revenue has increased rapidly from about 100 million yuan in 2020 to about 150 million yuan in the first half of 2021. At present, the energy storage industry is in the early stage of outbreak, and the demand for energy storage and temperature control has increased rapidly, which is expected to become a strong growth point of the company's business.
