Report summary
In January, the whole Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile terminal market continued to maintain a high outlook, and the production and sales still increased significantly year-on-year. The sales volume of that month reached 431000, an increase of 140.79% year-on-year. In terms of permeability, the monthly permeability reached 17.03% in January, a slight decrease of about 2 percentage points compared with the previous month.
Due to the continuous rise in the price of upstream raw materials, combined with the multiple effects of declining subsidies and continuous core shortage, most of the terminal Vehicle OEMs choose to raise the price, which will have an adverse impact on the terminal sales of subsequent new energy vehicles. In addition, due to the high cost of power batteries in products with low model level, they are also under greater pressure from the continuous price rise of upstream lithium battery related materials. Therefore, some automobile enterprises may choose to stop receiving orders for this kind of products. Considering that this part of models previously accounted for a large proportion of sales in the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market, It may have a certain impact on the overall new energy vehicle market in China.
However, at the same time, we should also note the driving effect of the double credit policy on the production and sales of new energy vehicles by enterprises, and the rising demand in the downstream still exists. Automobile enterprises need to find an appropriate balance between raising prices to ensure single vehicle profits (or reduce single vehicle losses) and reducing demand caused by price increases, So as to ensure the maximization of the overall profitability of the enterprise.
Based on the above situation, although the high price of raw materials and the tight supply situation may appropriately cool down the follow-up new energy vehicles, considering that the demand for new energy vehicles at the terminal is still relatively strong, we believe that the prosperity of the follow-up new energy vehicle market will decline, but will remain at a high level.
The upstream materials are still in the price rise stage as a whole.
Lithium ore: at present, the demand for new energy vehicles in the downstream is still strong, and the tight supply situation is still difficult to alleviate, which continues to push up the price of lithium.
Positive electrode: driven by the price rise of upstream materials and the strong demand of downstream, the price of positive electrode materials broke through the short-term platform stage in the early stage again and began to rise rapidly. As the downstream demand continues to be strong at present, most manufacturers in the industrial chain can only make a compromise on the price in order to give priority to ensuring the supply, further pushing up the price of relevant products, and the subsequent price increase is expected to continue.
Electrolyte: in terms of raw materials, due to the sharp rise in the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate raw materials and the lack of superimposed capacity, the possibility of subsequent decline in the price of hexafluorophosphate is small; Solvent supply is relatively loose; The price of additives is relatively stable, the production capacity of traditional large VC factories continues to climb, and new manufacturers are put into operation one after another, which makes the supply continue to increase. Based on the above factors, the electrolyte price does not fluctuate significantly as a whole.
Diaphragm: from the perspective of both supply and demand, diaphragm is a relatively balanced item in lithium battery materials, and the price rise logic of other materials is mostly the price rise of upstream lithium resources. This factor has little impact on diaphragm, so the historical situation and future expectation of diaphragm price basically remain stable.
Risk tips
1. The price of upstream materials continues to rise
2. The downstream demand shrank
3. New technology breakthrough leads to the change of technology path
