Introduction: social finance has made a good start. M2 and social finance have accelerated, the gap has expanded, and the conduction time lag will be exhausted. Everything will be born after winter and spring.
Social integration has made a good start. Winter goes and spring comes, and everything lives. A-share has a good start after the festival, but its style is differentiated and its value is stronger than growth. The financial data in January showed that the effect of the steady growth policy was obvious, and the credit ushered in a good start as scheduled. Looking forward to the future, the central bank’s monetary policy implementation report in the fourth quarter set the tone of “wide money, stable total credit and excellent structure”, and the monetary and credit conditions have turned to loose, which will strongly support the continued recovery of social finance. The credit data exceeded expectations, a major positive signal verification. In breaking the negative feedback – observation and Reflection on the opening of the market in the year of the tiger, we suggest that at present, China’s economy is in the stage of Pringle counter cyclical regulation of the landing of stable growth policies and the bottom of the economy. Macro policies are active and stable growth, hedge against the downward pressure of the economy, and the bottom of the economy is expected to be found in Q2. Social finance data has verified that the increase in the rate of return to work (the other side of the weak return data) will also become a positive signal of the bottom of the market. The conduction delay will be exhausted, and the rotation has reached a shares. M2 has accelerated, and the gap with social finance has further expanded. From the performance of large categories of assets, the long-term interest rate rebounded, the convertible bond was strong, and the REITs reached a new high, implying the pursuit of deterministic growth by financial institutions. The performance price ratio of stocks and bonds has further improved. With the more clear steady growth, the molecular expectation has stabilized, and there are more opportunities to rotate to a shares. Moreover, the stable stocks of A-Shares have responded, and the high dividend strategy is the shield. With the enhancement of broad credit and steady growth signals, interest rates will return to the upside, risk appetite will be repaired, A-Shares are expected to go out of the shock range, return to the upward trend, small cap growth and specialize in special new attacks.
The US CPI reached a new high and the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates rose again. Driven by strong non-agricultural and high inflation, the expectation of interest rate increase is rising, and the pricing of risky assets is under pressure. The sharp rise in inflation has led to a rapid increase in the cost of living of the American people. The Biden government is under great pressure. Biden’s current support rate has fallen to 40%. On February 10, Biden again called on the fed to control inflation “in view of the strength of our recovery and the recent pace of price rise, it is now appropriate for the fed to adjust monetary policy”. Based on the rising US inflation, the improvement of the labor market and the political pressure of the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in March. If the CPI continues to rise in February and the non farm data continues to improve, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates by 50 BP in March. In the short term, due to the rapid rise in the expectation of raising interest rates, the interest rate of 10Y US bonds may remain high, and the pricing of global risky assets will continue to be under pressure. However, with the peak fall of US inflation and the official implementation of the interest rate increase in March, it is expected that the US bond interest rate will gradually fall and the price of risky assets will gradually stabilize and recover. In the last round of interest rate increase cycle, after the interest rate increase was implemented, the interest rate of 10Y US bonds fell and US stocks began to rise.
After the large outflow of financing funds before the north and the two festivals, it remained stable this week, but there were still differences. There was a large outflow before the northbound Festival, and the net inflow this week was 10 billion, which temporarily stabilized; After shrinking for six consecutive weeks, the financing balance rebounded slightly to $1.62 trillion this week. The two capital entities stabilized, but there are still obvious differences in the inflow structure. In the direction of the industry, northward funds have significantly flowed into the large financial sector, nonferrous metals and electronics have also received a net inflow of more than 2 billion, and Dianxin, computers and medicine have all suffered a net outflow of more than 2 billion; The two financing funds have a small net inflow in significant callback industries such as computer and Dianxin.
Focus on the three era clues of common prosperity, energy revolution and manufacturing power. a. Growth track of manufacturing power: Computer & Communication (Industrial Internet, smart energy, Jiangsu Nonghua Intelligent Agriculture Technology Co.Ltd(000816) , smart city, Xinchuang software), semiconductor (material & Equipment & power semiconductor), new energy vehicle (vehicle & parts), national defense industry (Aircraft & missile industry chain); b. Qianlong stabilizes the track in Yuanyuan: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, beauty care; c. Growth track of energy revolution: clean energy (photovoltaic & wind power industry chain), high energy consumption substitution (lithium battery & prefabricated building).
The annual main line is specialized and new. In terms of the original four-dimensional screening criteria of “specialized”, “refined”, “special” and “new”, we have added the new criteria that only listed companies are small giant enterprises, further focus on the market value of small and medium-sized enterprises, and build a “specialized, special and new” small giant 50. We combed Wuxi Dk Electronic Materials Co.Ltd(300842) , Wpg (Shanghai) Smart Water Public Co.Ltd(603956) , Guangzhou Fangbang Electronics Co.Ltd(688020) , Streamax Technology Co.Ltd(002970) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) in the “Tour: the little giant of specialization and innovation – Issue 7”.
Risk tip: the persistence of inflation exceeded expectations, the tightening of liquidity exceeded expectations, and the epidemic repeatedly exceeded expectations.
